Days Picks 8 / 3-1-2
2025 Overall — 1058 1058 / 323-369-463
Win % of Top Pick 30.53%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 36.39%
2025 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 640-1,058 60.49%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ EP — 50-77 64.94%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ CD — 200-314 63.69%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 155-235 65.96%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 44-79 55.70%
2025 Only Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 180-338 53.25%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ PIM — 6-9 66.67%
2025 Top Pick in the Money @ SAR — 5-6 83.33%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ EP — 24-77 31.17%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ CD — 107-314 34.08%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ HI — 73-235 31.06%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 22-79 27.85%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ TP Winter — 90-338 26.63%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ Pim — 5-9 55.56%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ SAR — 2-6 33.33%
2025 “Key Plays” @ EP 3/3-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2025 “Key Plays” @ KEE — 11/6-0-2 54.55% Win / 72.73% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ TP — 34/ 16-6-3 47.06% Wn / 75.53% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ HI — 31/15-3-8 48.39% Win / 83.87% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ CD — 30/15-5-5 50.00% Win / 83.33% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ Pim — 2/2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” @ SAR — 1/1-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” Overall — 112/ 58-14-18 51.79% Win / 80.36% ITM

(Stats to be updated with the last month’s of results)

Here’s our looks for this amazing Saturday card at Kentucky Downs, which features 5 Stakes events and purses that runneth over. The Graded Nashville Stakes includes 4 — count ’em — horses that ran in this year’s Kentucky Derby. That’s never happened before. There’s a Breeders’ Cup winner returning, too. Just an unreal card full of unbelievable steeds. A day worth watching — along with your favorite football.

By the way, I go big on Kentucky football today, too. Love the Cats.

I bet Eastern Kentucky to cover against Louisville. I graduated from EKU and used to cover the Colonels when the Colonels were Generals of I-AA. Love the Colonels.

Here we go. Buckle the chin strap.

1st: 10-11-1/7-4/6-8/3-12…Running Game (10) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter over the hills and dales of Kentucky Downs this afternoon. This 3YO filly is under the tutelage of trainer Joe Sharp and looks very sharp for this encounter, that will stretch out to 1 mile. Jose Ortiz, who had 4 winners on opening day, gets the ride here and this one just missed with that jockey last time out in June. Look here. Alongcomesawoman (11) could add some value to the trade here. This one gets Lasix for the first time and the barn wins with .23% of the last 61 to get that medication. Gets back to turf here and that helps the cause. Threat. In the Stars (1) is likely to be overbet here and the rail is no bargain. I think she can be had. I bet the 10-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the top 3 over/under the 7-4 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 2-12/8-4-5/3-7/6-11-10/9…La Dolce Vita (2) will test the route distance for the first time, but not to worry. The trainer wins with .24% when going a distance of ground for the first time and with .27% when making the 2nd career race. Gets Irad up and that is a huge rider switch. Look no farther. But, if you do, look at Conceit (12), who may spice up the odds board here. This daughter of Not This Time makes the career debut for the best barn operation in the free world. Sharp work on Aug. 22. Maybe? I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 2-12 in the exactas. I key the 2-12 over/under the 8-4-5-3-7 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 6/1-2-10/5/7…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Ready to Jam (6). This 4YO filly nearly won a Stakes event at Woodbine last out and has placed in a G2 earlier this year. Picks up Irad here, too, and it could spell out to be a good day for both Ortiz boys at the oval. Has raced 12 times over the sod. Has a tidy record of 2-3-3. Could make it 3-3-3. I bet the 6 to win/place and double down on the win. I will key the 6 over/under the 1-2-10-5-7. More with the 1-2-10 than the others. 

4th: 1-11-9/2/12-6-11-(13)-3/7…Operation Sunrise (1) comes off a near-8 length win the last time out when cutting back to the sprint distance. Hall of Fame trainer is having a superb year — thanks to Sovereignty — and he stays with the local rider over his buddy Junior Alvarado (who rides the 2). Look for this one to speed to the front. Holds on? Our Starry Night (11) goes for a highly underrated trainer and sports a 1-1-0 record in 3 grass events, so far. Won the MSW event last out at Saratoga. Ships here with new rider. Threat. Has speed galore, too. No Ah A (9) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This one goes for trainer Chris Block, who is an upset artist. Won the first out of the career at Hawthorne. Ships here and the barn wins with .25% in Sprints. Sharp work since the win. Look out. Big odds here. I bet the 1-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I key the top 3 over/under the 2 in two smaller units. I will key the 9 over/under the 1-11-2-12-6-11-13-3, as well.

5th: 1-(13)-(16)-4/8-3/9-12-(14)…I will go back to the well and the No. 1-hole here with Texas Queen (1). This 3YO daughter of Munnings gets the blinkers on for the first time and the barn wins with .21% of those getting the shades. Also, the barn wins with .30% of those returning as a beaten favorite. Qualifies for that title, too. Came with a flurry last time out. The extra distance and steep incline to the wire could help here. A lot. If the Nos. 13 (Epic Ride) and/or 16 (Tempting Eve) get in, I use, too. If not, I definitely spend some extra cash here to include Autumn Sunshine (4). Brad Cox sends out this first time starter, who has been working very well. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 1-13-16-4 in the exactas. Use all if all get in. Use the ones who do, if not all. I will key the 1 over/under the 13-16-4-8-3 in two smaller units. 

6th: 3-4/12-11/7-(16)/8-10-(15)…Beer Run (3) is an obvious choice for me, right? The City of Light gelding is 0-for-9 in the lifetime but has hit the board in 7 of them. All have been over the sod. May find the key to the batter’s box here. Has hit the board in each of the last 5 and looks good this year. Peixe (4) is the “other” one trained by Wesley Ward, and he bred and owns this one, too. Must use for me. First time starter has been lighting up the clock in the a.m. and gets one of my most favorite riders in Junior Alvarado. Look out. I bet the 3-4 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 3-4 over/under the 12-11-7-16-8 in two smaller units. 

7th: 4-3-1/8-5-7…Bowling Green Gold Cup Invitational…This marathon will be run, and run, and run for 2 miles and 1/16. Throw the extra 1/16th in there for good measure. I go with Limited Liability (4), who ran 13/8th miles last time out. Has to stretch out significantly for this one. Gets Frankie Dettori up again and has a win here. That is great experience, if history holds. I like. Tawny Port (3) has just one win in 13 grass starts, but has 6 more top 3 finishes. Will come running late. Goldeneye (1) won at Saratoga last time. Has hit the board in 10 of 19 over the grass and has a win here, too. Must use for me — especially at 10-1 odds. I bet the 4-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the top 3 over/under the 8-5 in two smaller units. 

8th: 6-12-4/2-10/11-1/7-5…G2 Never Say Die Ladies Sprint Turf Stakes…Ag Bullet (6) has won 7 of 12 over the sod, with 2 more thirds. Has a G1 win coming in. Has a win here, where he garnered $878,940 in purse earnings. Enough credentials? Simply in Front (12) is 12-1 in the ML and rates a solid chance here Has 4 wins and 3 seconds in 12 grass starts and has a win here, as well. Won the G2 Music City here last year. Ben Curtis is a solid rider. Threat. Danse Macabre (4) merits consideration as a lonshot possible, too. Has hit the board here twice before, even though ran poorly here last year in this same event. Gets a local star up in the saddle. I bet the 6-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 2-10 in two smaller units. 

9th: 11-2/10-6-7/8-1-3…G2 Mint Kentucky Turf Sprint…This is a 6-furlong event for the boys and I saddle up with my old “friend,” Nobals (11). This is the same guy who denied me the Pick 6 on Derby Day a couple of years ago and a reward of about $14 zillion dollars, or about that. Come to love the gelding with the best name since. Has never hit the board here and that’s an issue, but is classly as hell. Howard Wolowitz (2) has a win here and despite the bad run in foreign waters last time out, this one is training great. Look out here. I bet the 2 — take note — to win/place/show and double down on the win wager. I box the 11-2 in the exactas and then key the 11-2 over/under the 10-6-7-8 in two smaller units. 

10th: 2-12/11-8-6/7-4-1/(14)…G3 Nashville Derby Stakes…There are 4 horses in this event today that ran in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Four of them. And, a couple may have a shot, too. But? There’s always a “but,” right? I go with Test Score (2), the most accomplished of the grass runners. Has gone 3-3-2 in 9 grass starts and ships in after a couple of impressive runs at Saratoga. If he can clean up a few mistakes in the last two? Watch out. But, I think he could be over-bet, as well. Ugh. Wimbledon Hawkeye (12) ships in from Great Britain and will tackle this group for his first U.S. experience. The ground is so much different here, although the course will be to his liking. Has been running over a “good” or “soft” turf. This will be much harder today. Ugh. Final Gambit (11) ran fourth in this year’s Derby. Has never won over the sod, but this deep closer may fit this courage better than all others. Sandman (8), who was 7th in the Derby, may love the grass in his sod debut. Comes from a dam who has thrown two grass winners already. Another that will close. Blinkers come off. Gets Jose up. Jose. Jose. Jose. Simulate (6) could be a shocker here for the team of Mott and Alvarado. Just writing. I bet the 2-11 across the board — take note — and then I bet the 11 across the board again. I will key the 2-11 over/under the 12-8-6-7 in the exactas. 

11th: 10-7-5/11-2/9-1-6-3/8…G3 Resolute Racing Ladies Turf Stakes…Pin Up Betty (10) could be a nice price here. Has won two in a row and this will be a tough one to make it a trifecta. Did not run well here last year, either. But this gal is much better than a year ago and comes in off a nice work at Churchill Downs. Has 4 wins and 3 seconds in 11 grass outs. Sacred Wish (7) has hit the board in 10 of 14 grass starts and is looking for first win of the year. Chance. Segesta (5) is the Chad Brown entry and this one packs a powerhouse pedigree — being by Ghostzapper and out of the Stakes-winning mare Antonoe. Tough group. But? I bet the 10-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 11-2 in two smaller units. 

12th: (15)-5-3/1-9/10-11/8-7-4/(13)-(14)…Orbit (15) will be a tough out if the 2YO colt can get in. Has run two thirds to start the career and gets a HOF rider up — maybe. Check the scratches. If in, I go. If not, I leave. Cynical Humor (5) is a first timer for Wesley Ward, who wins withy .18% of the last 103 to make the first run over sod. Chance. Mayweather (3) is the horse to beat. Trainer is good. But will this one like the turf? I don’t know. Boonesboro (1) could be the one to benefit the most. Trainer is 2-1-2 in the last 5 outs over the last two weeks and the breeding is spot on for the grass. I use. I bet the 15 if in. If not, I bet the 5-1 across the board. I key the 15-5-1 over/under the 3-9 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene