(The lovely LA and me at the Louisville Down Syndrome Ball)

(Golden Tempo / Photos by Holly M. Smith)

Here’s a few thoughts about Kentucky Derby 152, and more. Coming at you fast and furious.

We will post a “Series of Opinions” today and the next few days.

Hope you read.

Maybe you will agree.

Maybe you won’t.

But, maybe, just maybe, these “thoughts” will make you think…

“Crowing” vs. “Eating Crow”

There is a big difference between “crowing” and “eating crow.” A big difference.

The first word may not be “tasteful” in nature, but goes down a whole lot easier for the person who is doing the bellowing.

The second word is certainly not tasteful, and comes with a great deal of humility and, ugh, chocking on words and gunk.

I had a bit of both this Derby season.

Have to admit, I prefer the former, rather than the latter.

But I have to recognize the both good and bad of predictions, statements, calculations, and forecasts.

First, the good news.

For several weeks, if not ever since the Louisiana Derby, I have preached the gospel according to Golden Tempo. While I may not have been as bullish on the talented colt as I was in 2025 on Sovereignty, I was still rather vocal and strongly worded in my support.

I wrote this in my final Kentucky Derby “Rankings” piece, which appeared several days before the big race was run:

“Longshot Special” for Me / Will Come With Huge Late Run If Clear / Biggest + = Classic Pedigree / Biggest ? = Rider

At our regular “Derby Week Handicapping Event” at the Louisville Thoroughbred Society, and along such astute handicappers and fabulous friends like Travis Stone, Nick Tammaro, and Ed DeRosa, I once again preached the potential value of placing wagers on Golden Tempo and announced that I would be doing so.

And, finally, in our widely-circulated piece on “Derby Day Selections,” I wrote the following:

“I Bet 18-6-9-19 WPS / Bet 18 WPS Again / Box 18-6-9-19 Exacta / Box 18-6-9-19-12-15 Tri & Super”

While I missed the exotics by ignoring my own numbers and not including Renegade, stupidly, I did have a rather nice bet across the board on the 28-1 longshot winner that did pay handsomely.

In addition to the Derby, I also had the trifecta on the Kentucky Oaks, which was won by Always a Runner. Meaning, the California-shipper, was 2nd. Counting Stars was 3rd.

The big “crow” comes, though, in the fact that I was not a fan of the ML and PT favorite — Zany. After watching her lackluster performance in the G1 Ashland at Keeneland, I announced, both publicly and privately, that I was tossing her from my equations and betting strategies. A non-use for me.

That news moved some heads at our event at LTS and from my star-studded colleagues.

But sometimes, you just have to go with your opinion and gut.

I did.

I won.

I think that entitles one to “Crow” a bit.

But now, the bad news. The humbling news. The “Eating Crow” news.

Although I was rewarded for my pick of Golden Tempo in the Kentucky Derby and my “toss” of Zany in the Kentucky Oaks, I must admit I whiffed on my top selections.

I was very bullish on Forever Ado in the Derby and Prom Queen in the Oaks. I loved them. And, I thought it was going to be a huge weekend for my friend, and the world’s best trainer today — Brad Cox.

It just didn’t pan out.

Further Ado had a brutal trip and was shuffled, bumped, bruised, tattered and worn from go to get in the Kentucky Derby. Every time that new rider John Velazquez attempted to make a run with him, the horse was slammed into submission. Never a chance.

Prom Queen got a mysterious ride from Javier Castellano. She didn’t break sharply, but, for some strange reason, the HOF rider relegated the Gulfstream Oaks winner to nearly last in a field of outstanding runners. By the time that Castellano figured out he needed to make a move, it was far too late to make a serious run at the leaders. The filly ran 5th and galloped out in front of them all. But it was just too much to ask; too much to do.

I don’t know, but I think you can expect new riders for both of the Cox horses going forward. Maybe a return to Irad Ortiz, Jr for Further Ado. Maybe the same for Prom Queen.

Both deserve better. So do you, who have come to expect better from my handicapping thoughts and opinions.

I’m sorry it didn’t work out with these two plays.

But…

I think both of these horses will run much better in the near future and be worthy of redemption quickly.

And…

I will be there to support, once again.

Hope you come along…