OPINION #3: A Series of Thoughts About KY Derby 152 & More…Racing as a 2YO?

Several years ago, in 2018 to be exact, there was a lot of news made by the fact that no Kentucky Derby winner had captured the “roses” without having run as a 2-year-old since Apollo had accomplished that feat in 1882.

In short, it had been 136 years since a Kentucky Derby winner had not made a single start as a 2-year-old. Just one. And, that phenomenon had become known as “The Apollo Curse,” in Kentucky Derby lore and racing enthusiasts story tellings.

The streak ended in 2018 when Justify — who shouldn’t have made it into the field for the Kentucky Derby due to a positive drug test after winning the Santa Anita Derby prep was not revealed until after the firsts leg of the Triple Crown was even run — won the Derby.

Just five years later, in 2023, Mage won the Derby, too. He didn’t run as a 2YO, either.

With those events occurring so close together, many racing pundits and analysts have been willing to now just toss history and publicly disclose that running as a 2YO may be preferable, still, but it is not meaningful any more.

I disagree.

Strongly.

Two exceptions — even if they are so close together — does not trump 136 years of history.

Two exceptions — one of which should never have happened if the rules of the game were truly followed by the California Horse Racing Board — does not turn fact into fiction.

Two exceptions does not invalidate truth.

And, this year’s Kentucky Derby stands as yet another example of why history still matters.

This year’s Kentucky Derby is testimony why running as a 2YO still matters.

Going into this year’s Derby, two of the hottest horses on the grounds were Emerging Market, winner of the G2 Louisiana Derby and trained by Chad Brown, and Captain Wallabee, third-place finisher of the G1 Florida Derby and trained by Bill Mott.

Both of these horses had strong resumes and credentials.

Both of them looked as if they were primed and ready to roll, after pre-Derby workouts.

Both of them are trained by two of the game’s best, including the man who trained 2025 winner Sovereignty.

Both of them caught a lot of attention, and media support.

And, both of them had not run as a 2YO.

A lot of people, some of whom I highly respect, discount the history that Derby contenders need to run as 2YO. In their words, it has become a diminishing theory.

Some people now suggest that since trainers value more time to develop horses in various training methods as opposed to racing, discount the idea that a prime Kentucky Derby contender has to race as a 2YO due to the face that “the sport has changed.”

Some offer supporting evidence as being the 2018 and 2023 Kentucky Derby contests as proof positive that the Apollo Curse no longer applies.

Bull hockey, I say.

It matters.

It matters a lot.

In this year’s Kentucky Derby, the following took place:

The winner — Golden Tempo — ran as a 2YO. He broke his maiden at the Fair Grounds on Dec. 20.

The runner-up — Renegade — ran as a 2YO. He ran 3 times as a 2YO. Didn’t win. But ran 2nd in the G2 Remsen Stakes.

The third place finisher — Ocelli — ran as a 2YO. Ran twice. Finished 3rd and 2nd in two MSW races.

The fourth place finisher — Chief Wallabee — did NOT run as a 2YO.

Emerging Marked — who did not run as a 2YO, either — ran 10th.

The fact that these highly-touted Derby contenders didn’t run as a 2YO may not have been the only reason they didn’t win the Kentucky Derby. Probably wasn’t the only reason.

But, in my view, they were contributing factors. And, in my view, they are certainly handicapping factors.

Since Apollo won the Derby in 1882, there have been two exceptions. Two. And, one of them should not have occurred if the rules of the game were known and followed.

That’s 144 years of history, and, one true exception?

It matters.

It still matters.