“The Pressbox’s” First Rankings for 2026 KY Derby: Not Surprisingly, Ted Noffey Is #1

(Ted Noffey / Photos by Coady Media)

Truly, the older I get, the faster Kentucky Derbies seem to fly around the calendar. Almost as fast as the 3YOs who contest them. Almost as fast as the subject changes in the sports world and the stars of today become the bums of tomorrow. Almost as fast as a story in the news cycle lasts on the tip of tongues and front of mind. Rapid fire. Flash. Burn bright. Burn out.

Seems just like yesterday that I was so bullish on Sovereignty and I was touting him to any and all who would sit long enough to listen or read a paragraph of why I believed so much; so highly; and, in that case, so accurately.

Don’t know if I’m quite as bullish as I was a year ago on my top pick for 2026.

But, then again, I don’t know if I’m not, too.

This year’s field and possible contestants just don’t seem to be as accomplished or as deep as the field of a year ago, when I knew that I loved Sovereignty, without any questions, but I also knew that there were horses like Journalism and Baeza lurking in the background. At least, right now, I think the top of this crop is truly top heavy. Maybe so top heavy that it will tilt before we ever get to that first Saturday in May.

There is no question that the top 3YO in the world right now is Ted Noffey, the winner of the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the undefeated son of the great sire Into Mischief.

No question. No doubts. No real threat, at this time, quite honestly.

But there is no question, too, that the Kentucky Derby is never a “walk over.” And, over the next few weeks and three months of prep races and horse touting, I am sure as Ted Noffey is standing here above the fray and the conversation, that there will be a horse or two that develops into a real contender.

Who will that be? Great question. Maybe, great questions.

Golden Tempo, who just won the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds, looks like he might emerge from the back pack and develop into a threat. Street Beast may be the next Final Gambit and come rolling off the Tapeta at Turfway Park right into the fray, as well. And, of course, there is Brad Cox lurking in the background with at least a horse or five that may just pounce on the scene with a real shot or shots. Further Ado and Commandment are both worth watching, and, perhaps, betting in the future pools, too.

So, there is much to watch and witness, as always, leading up to the Kentucky Derby on that magical first Saturday in May.

But, for now, all the eyes and expectations will be front-end loaded on one horse — Ted Noffey. And, he may be up to the occasion, too.

We shall see.

Rankings will be updated each week leading up to the greatest sporting event in the free world.

And, beginning next week, I will begin looking at some horses that may just improve enough to give the Toffey camp a scare.

We shall see.