McLean’s Selections for Breeders’ Cup Championships at Del Mar — Friday, Oct 31

(Stats to be updated)

It is Breeders’ Cup weekend, and that means a few things that the memory banks can spring to life and an immersive act of brain and body into the largest set of past performances known to the free world.

Do not be alarmed, but I have arrived in Las Vegas and this will be on Command Post for the next few days. I know. I know. I know. The Breeders’ Cup Live will be held a few hundred miles onward and downward to San Diego and at the Del Mar Turf Club. But until the Breeders’ Cup can see and admit to the error of its’ ways — and it has many, thank you — and return to Churchill Downs, which should be the only place to host this most magnificent event, then I will not attend a Breeders’ Cup in person again.

But that’s another story for another day.

No reason to dwell on the Breeders’ Cup shortsightedness and petty behavior right now.

All the reason in the world to celebrate the horse, which continues to stand magnificently above the fray and the politics, despite the few loud and obnoxious ones that continue to predict our end is coming.

So let’s begin.

Drum roll please.

Breeders’ Cup Friday:

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (5 Furlongs): 

6th: 9-1-8/5-11-12/7-6…True Love (9) just may be one of the best bets of the day, if you are not searching for the perfect long shot wave all day and, instead, are working to place and cash bets that can make you some money by the end of the day. This 2YO Irish-bred filly is not going to be long odds. No sir and madam. She is 7-2 in the ML, set by my great friends at Brisnet.com. But, to be very frank, I would love to lock in that 7-2 odds level. Right now. This can has raced 6 times in the career with 3 wins and 3 seconds. Comes in off a win in a GR1 at Newmarket for one of the greatest trainers of our time. The Euros have dominated the grass races in this country for years. And there’s plenty of reasons to document why. That, too, is another story for another day. But this gal has it all. The breeding. The training. The right pilot and the past performances to warrant favoritism here. The lone concern is the outside post, which the Euros have been cursed with this time around — across the board. And, if you are concerned at all, this is a filly going up against the boys here. Some may shy from that, as well. Still, all in all, go here. Brussels (1) is another shipper for the barn of Aiden O’Brien. Comes in off an impressive 2nd in a Stakes at Newmarket, as well. Has raced over the sod 6 times so far, with just a single win. But does have 3 more runner-ups. Could pull that exacta again today. This one is a colt. Havana Anna (8) is a Brit-bred and has run 2nd in two straight Group Stakes coming in. Our top pick edged this one at the wire lat time out, but this one never gave up. Look to see the top 3 go at it again here. This one is a filly, too. Just a FYI. If you are looking for a bigger price? Maybe put the Violence colt Obliteration (5) in the exacta box. This one has never won over the sod. Not yet. But this guy has thrown a lot of class in 3 dirt races and 2 turf ones, as well. Seems to be able to run anywhere — already 4 tracks in the first 5 races — and over any surface. Just can run. I use. I bet the 9-5 across the board and then I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will also key the 9-5 over/under the 1-8-11-12-7-6 in two smaller units.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (11/16-miles on dirt):

7th: 5-7-2/4/9-3-1…Tommy Jo (5) actually finished 2nd in the G1 Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland in her last go and that would have been this daughter of Into Mischief’s first career loss. But the Stewards accurately and fairly moved this filly up to the top spot after discerning that the winner that day — Percy’s Barn (4) — had repeated fouled in the stretch and she was disqualified for her infractions and placed 2nd. Tommy Jo looked, at first, that she was poised to go by the DQ’d winner in the stretch of the Alcibiades, but was knocked off her game and stride on at least two occasions. After that, rider John Velazquez wrapped her up and settled for the 2nd spot, probably anticipating a disqualification. Either way, this filly — Tommy Jo — has earned and now deserves top billing here. She easily broke her maiden and then won the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga. Both of those races were at sprint distances, and, perhaps, some bettors worry if Tommy Jo can get a distance of ground in a winning way. I think she can and I think she will. She should improve off the first two-turn experience and wrestling match at KEE. And, she has the pedigree on both sides to be tremendous. I expect a tremendous effort here. Explora (7) is a 2YO daughter of Blame and goes for the barn of Bob Baffert, who could have a rewarding two days here. This filly has the home-field advantage, having already run over this track twice — with a win in her first career start. Came back to run 2nd in the G1 Del Mar Debutante. In her last race — the G2 Oak Leaf — she won impressively. And, at two turns. Look out here. Spoiler alert. Bottle of Rouge (2) is another from the Baffert barn, and this one has credentials, too. She won the Del Mar Debutante over Explora and now has 2 impressive wins in a row. But this will be her first try at two turns. Percy’s Barn (4) had her shot at KEE and got caught shoplifting. May be good enough to try again here, but there’s a ton of speed in this affair and I look for her to be up against it. A toss for me. La Wally (9) could be the upset play, if you are searching for one. Daughter of Constitution should love this distance and the trainer wins with .23% of those routing for the 2nd time. Gets a huge, huge, huge rider switch here. A must use for me at 10-1 ML. I bet the 5-7 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 9-3-1 in two smaller units. I will also key the top 3 over/under the 9 in another one, too.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1 Mile):

8th: 13/9-3/4-2-1/11…In my humble opinion (and I have never been accused of being humble), there is only one way that Precise (13) loses this race. The 2YO Irish-bred is carrying the #13 saddle cloth and breaking form the #13 stall on Friday, October 31 — Halloween. Scary stuff happens this day and night. Right? Seriously, IMO, the far outside draw is awful, awful, awful here. And, that alone could be the single reason that this filly is unable to win here. Probably the only reason. She is the only “star” in a race full of “others,” and comes in with 4 wins and a 2nd in her career debut after the first 5 career starts. She is an Irish-bred. She is trained by the Irish team. And, she has a seriously good rider up. If that’s not enough credentials? She gets to carry 6 less pounds that she has in her last 3 starts. I look no farther. I think she overcomes. I think she wins. Impressively. I bet the 13 to win/place and then key the 13 over/under the 9-3-4-2-1-11 in the exactas. Far more with the 9-3 than the rest. 

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (11/16 miles on the dirt)

9th: 8-7/2/1-4-6…In my handicapping view and numbers crunch, I think there are only two main contenders for this event — Ted Coffey (8) and Brant (7). For many, there may be only one main threat, if all goes according to plan. And, that is the horse named after the guru mastermind of Spendthrift Farm. Ted Noffey — which is named for Ned Toffey — is a perfect 3-for-3 so far. He’s won those races by a combined 13 lengths. That’s an average win of over 4 lengths per race. He has two-turn experience, having won the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at KEE by an easy 23/4 margin. He has the perfect pedigree. And, he’s owned by the farm that hires Mr. Ned Toffey and runs the horse Ted Noffey. Looks unbeatable on paper. But they run on dirt. And, this Del Mar dirt is the home field of Brant. This 2YO son of Gun Runner is trained by Baffert and the horse is a perfect 2-for-2 over this surface. Has not been two turns yet. But this one looks like he will only get better with added distance. Likes to go-go-go and is by Gun Runner. Top rider keeps the saddle job. Look out. I bet the 7 — in an upset — and box the 8-7 sternly here. May not pay much, but I bet it pays more than a losing ticket that you tear up and dispose of properly. My thoughts. 

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (1 Mile):

10th: 14/10-3-2/13-6-9-11…This is another one of those “single” possibilities if you are willing to test the track bias and the obstacles that come along with the far outside post and a short run to the first turn. And, in this case, that could be a daunting task for a 2YO who has already shipped over most of the world just for the chance to run here. The good news is that this Brit-bred is the star of this crowed. No doubt. None. The only horse who gets a “star rating” in my number calculations. Already has a Group 1 win. In 5 starts so far, has 2 wins and 3 seconds. Two of those 2nds came by a head and a neck, respectively. Never beaten — yet — by a length. So, even when this guy loses, you know that he is in the race. I think this one improves with the added distance, too. And, the two-turn 1-mile distance could be a huge help, despite the far outside post. I stick and think that he can overcome all. If you wish to look farther? I suggest the Irish-bred Ardisia (10), who has a ton of experience. Has raced 11 times already. Has a record of 5-1-2. Nearly won at Ascot in the last out and looks to get 15-1 ML odds. I like that, too. I definitely use in the exotics. U.S.-based trainer Wesley Ward ships in Outfielder (3) here. This one has two wins in this country, and a nice 4th — despite obstacles — in Deauville. Group 1 that day. Gets a top rider and would not be a stretch to see this one jump out to the early lead and try to hold on. I like this one’s chances to hold on for a top-3 finish. I bet the 14 to win/place. I will key the 14 over/under the 10-3-2-13-6-9 in the exactas. Just in case something crazy goes on with the outside post, I will take an exacta key of 14-10-3 over/under the 2-13-6 in a smaller unit.

Good Luck and All the Best …

Let’s try to build the bankroll for the Saturday showdowns.