McLean’s Selections for Churchill Downs on KY Derby Day 151 — Saturday, May 3

(Stats to be updated)

Here’s our looks on Kentucky Derby Day 151.

What a card.

What a day.

What a race.

What a place.

1st: 12-2/9-11/4-8/3-10//6-7…Chillax (12) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Louis-Town on the 151st edition of the G1 Kentucky Derby. This 3YO son of Bernardini comes in off a near-miss 2nd in a first-time route effort at KEE. Was close. But not close enough. Gets Junior Alvarado back up here and that could be the difference. Toss the first out. Hit the gate in that one. No chance. Big chance here. Cromwell (2) has two runner-ups and a third in 4 lifetime outs, so far. Was nominated for the Triple Crown series, which signals how the connections feel about this son of Quality Road. Will be coming very late in the proceedings, but may get there. I bet the 12 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 12-2 sternly. I will key the 12-2 over/under the 9-11-4-8-3-10 in two smaller units.

2nd: 7-11-10/8/4-5-6/2/9…Normandy Queen (7) has hit the board in four of the five lifetime tries and is coming off a big effort at Oaklawn Park on March 7. Gets a world-class rider up here and that should help the cause. May like this shorter distance, too. One to beat. Barbratina (11) is 12-1 in the ML and could pull the huge upset here. Has raced here twice before. Has a win and a 2nd in those efforts. Toss the last one. So bad to be true. Sharp work on April 23 at KEE. Irad gets the mount, too. I use. Generous Lover (10) is coming in here off a 26-length victory over fellow Ohio-breds last October. Ohio -breds are not known for being able to beat much in open company. But this one may be the exception. I bet the 7-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 7-11 over/under the 10-8-4-5-6 in two smaller units.

3rd: 9-6-5-2/7-3/8/1-11-4…Tiz Secure (9) has raced twice in the career and twice this year. Jumped from the MSW win to a grass Stakes event. Has talent and should improve with a return to the dirt here. A son of Maximum Security (who was disqualified as a KY Derby winner) and trained by Bob Baffert (who has had similar issues, as well). But here? This one may be too tough to handle. Rapture (6) is a son of Uncle Mo and one who I touted in the Virginia Derby. But he fired a blank in that one. Look for a return to glory ere. I like. A lot. Goal Oriented (5) is another from the Baffert barn. Has only one run. Won that MSW event in April. Gets Flavien Prat here. Could be a tough out. I bet the 6 — take note — across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 4 numbers in the exactas. But, more importantly, I will key the 6 over/under the 9-5-2-7-3 in two other units.

4th: 9/11-6-10-12/7-1-4-2…Knicks Go Stakes…The first “Key Play of the Day” here with Liberal Arts (9). This 4YO son of Arrogate has raced here 4 times with 2 wins and 2 thirds. Worked a nice move on April 26. Has covered the distance three times already. Won one and ran third on the two other occasions. I bet the 9 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 9 over/under the 11-6-10-12 in the exactas.

5th: 9-6-10/7/1-4-8/3-5-2…G2 Distaff Turf Mile Stakes…Simply in Front (9) is our first Upset Special of the Day.” This one is listed at 15-1 in the ML, from my good friends over at Brisnet.com. But there are too many positives for me to pass up. In 9 starts over the sod, this one has a 2-3-0 record and has won over $1.37 million in grass races. Has a win here, too, and has a 1-2-0 mark in 6 turf starts. Look at the change of riders. Important. One win here was over a “good” turf course. This sod is likely to be soft, too. Look out. Sacred Wish (6) ships in after a nice 4th in the G1 Jenny Wiley at KEE. Before that, this one ran a very game 2nd in the G2 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational. Has success over “good” sods. Will help. Special Wan (10) has raced here only three times after shipping from Ireland. In those 3 outings, she has 2 wins. Only loss was in the G1 First Lady. Plenty of experience on a soft or good sod. Must use for me. I bet the 9-10 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 9-10 over/under the 6-7-1-4-8 in two smaller units.

6th: 5-1/6/4-2-3-1-9…G2 Pat Day Mile…Gate to Wire (5) is a 3YO son of Munnings and a horse I included in the first few “Kentucky Derby Rankings” column. But the pedigree got in the way of that path. Better built of a shorter distance and gets that in the 1-mile Pat Day today. Has won on turf before winning on dirt in the 7-furlong Swale Stakes. Nice win there and lost the G2 Fountain of Youth after having serious traffic issues. Big shot here at nice 6-1 ML price tag. Madaket Road (1) is better suited to this distance, too. Drops back after spitting the bit in the 11/8-mile & G1 Florida Derby. Has speed, to be sure. But may burn it up. Baffert’s back in town. Unfortunately. Gaming (6) is another Baffert starter and could be the preferred choice. Has run 3 ugly ones in a row, but did curve out a good trip against Citizen Bull in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I bet the 5 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I will box the 5-1-6 in the exactas. I will also key the 5 over/under the 1-6-4-2-3-1-9 in two smaller units.

7th: 3-7-8/5/4-6-1/12-9…G2 Twin Spires Turf Stakes…This is a 5.5-furlong specialty event for the older horses and I go with a Churchill Downs’ specialist and aptly-named gelding in Nobals (3). This one spoiled my Pick 6 pick on KY Derby Day a couple of years ago when he scored a bomb shell. Not the same now as a 6YO, but has the skill to still get the job done with a good trip. Think Big (7) is coming off two straight wins and three in the last four. Has never lost in three tries at this distance, either. Will be coming off the pace and needs some racing luck. Can jockey Ben Curtis get the job done? Rogue Lightning (8) has raced 12 times at this distance. Has gone 3-2-2 and has won over $223,000 at this short sprint. Ships here after a 2nd at KEE in the G2 Shakertown on April 8. That was the first try in this country after a successful run in Europe. Big shot here. I bet the 3-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 5 in two smaller units.

8th: 7-11-10/3-2-6/4/8/5-9…G1 Churchill Downs Stakes…Mindframe (7) gets the nod in this 7-furlong endurance sprint. This son of Constitution is coming off a huge win in the Gulfstream Park Mile after nearly a year layoff for HOF trainer Todd Pletcher. Gets Irad back up here and should be a huge threat as the primary stalker. Mullikin (11) has raced this distance 5 times. He has won 3 of them, with 2 more seconds. Has raced here twice. Won both of them. Luis Saez gets the rider here, though, as Flavien Prat moves over to ride for Baffert on Nysos (10). The #10 is a perfect 3-for-3 in the career. The closest anything horse has been to him at the final wire is 71/2 lengths. His average win is by over 5 lengths. But? Has not raced in over a year. Ready? I bet the 7-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3-2-6-4 in two smaller units.

9th: 5-7/2-3-10/8-12-9/13-4…American Turf Stakes…This is a 11/6-mile event over the sod and I give the edge to Test Score (5), who is 10-1 in the ML. This son of Lookin At Lucky won the G3 Transylvania Stakes at KEE last time out. And, he normally ends each of his racing affairs with a kick. Could do it again. Here. Today. Zulu Kingdom (7) is an Irish-bred ridgling who is conditioned by America’s best turf trainer — Chad Brown. This one has won 4 of 5 liftetime tries, but will make the Churchill Downs’ sod debut here. Can stalk. Can win. I bet the 5-7 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 5-7 over/under the 2-3-10-8-12-9 in two smaller units.

10th: 9-7-8/1/2-6-11-13-15/3…Derby City Distaff Stakes…Emery (9) is a nice 6-1 price going into this one and could be a huge factor for trainer Brad Cox. Has raced this distance five previous times and has won twice with 3 seconds. Is a perfect 1-for-1 here. Nice stalker here and has a huge shot. But? Rider Flavien Prat opts for another and now Manny Franco gets his first try here. Vahva (7) is a perfect 4-for-4 over this track and will be running her best at the end. Gets Irad up and may just get up at the wire. Ways and Means (8) is the one that gets the services of Prat. Before the last race debacle in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff Sprint — when she faded to 5th — this gal won three in a row. Could be ready to start a new streak here. I bet the 9-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two smaller units.

11th: 11-1-10/7/2-3-12-4/6…G1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Stakes…Brilliant Berti (11) is my last “Upset Special of the Day” here. This one is 12-1 in the Brisnet. come ML. But if you toss out the last race, this one comes in with 5 wins in the last 6 and a 2nd in that one. Is a perfect 3-for-3 here. Has won over $1.6 million in 8 turf races. Integration (1) should benefit from the 2nd over the “good” turf at KEE in th G1 Maker’s Mark Mile. Has gone 5-3-1 in 12 starts over the sod and has won over $1.4 million in those races alone. Big effort coming at the end. Spirit of St Louis (10) is a pupil of Chad Brown. Has gone 8-2-0 in 12 grass starts. New York bred is a good one against open company, too. But may have to pull a career effort here. Running Bee (7) is another from the Chad Brown barn. May be the best of his in this frame. Won the last time out and may make it two in a row. Rider has teamed up with this trainer to go 2-0-2 in the last 5 outs together. I bet the 11-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 7 in two smaller units.

12th: 18-8-3/9/14-10-7/17-19-21/2-1-16-19…G1 Kentucky Derby…This may be one of the deepest and best runs for these rose petals. Class field with a class group of runners, which could have been even better if G1 Florida Derby winner Tappan Street had stayed healthy and made the gate, too. Despite all, I love Sovereignty (18). This 3YO son of the great sire Into Mischief has won twice and finished runner-up twice in 4 career starts. Has a win over this track in the G3 Street Sense last October. Won that one by 5 in a last-to-first move that inspires. Deep closer needs a hole or two, but the return of Junior Alvarado to the saddle here could be all that is needed to crown this year’s winner. Love this one. Journalism (8) is the huge favorite after winning 4 in a row — including the G1 Santa Anita Derby. But? This one has raced against only 4 other competitors in 4 of those races. There will be more than 4 in this Derby. A lot more. Vunerable. Final Gambit (3) is coming off a huge win in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks. Went from last to first in that AW victory in a flash. Big gray by Not This Time is a legit contender. Legit. Burnham Square (9) is not the biggest horse in the world, but he is strong and stout and has the heart of a champ. This is a gelding. Only 9 of the previous 120 geldings to run in the KY Derby have won. The last gelding to win was Mine That Bird. Hard to overcome history. Tiztastic (14) is a better grass horse than dirt. Just no way around it. But the son of Tiz the Law (who tried to win the Derby as a NY-bred) did win the G2 Louisiana Derby. I can use underneath, but not a strong play for me. Grande (10) ran 2nd in the G2 Wood Memorial, but never had a chance to ever pass the winner that day, Rodriguez (4). But? Grande is the better prospect to get 11/4-miles. Period. Luxor Cafe (7) was spectacular in is last race win in Japan. Just watch that replay. Circled the field and stormed away with a thunder. Must use for me. Must. use. Sandman (17) won big in the G1 Arkansas Derby and the well-bred son of Tapit looks amazing. But? This one has never run well over this track, with just one third in 3 previous tries. Was drilled by our top pick in the Street Sense. Will be over-bet, too. Toss for me. Lots of speed in this year’s version. Should set up perfectly for those that prefer to close. My horse prefers to close. And, close well. I bet the 18 across the board (2x). I double down on the win wager. I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will also key the 18 over/under the “all button,” and then I key the 18 over/under the 8-3-9-14-10-7-17-19-21.

13th: To Come

14th: To Come

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene