McLean’s Selections — With Comments — for KY Downs’ Opening Day ’25 — Thursday, Aug. 28

(Picks need to be updated with last month of results)

Here’s our looks at the Opening Day of the 2025 Kentucky Downs Meet. This is a track that features all-turf racing, up and down and all-around the hills and dales of Franklin, KY. Lots of handicappers look so forward to these days of full fields and great purses to try to out-figure their opponents — the other bettors. By the end the meet, though, lots of handicappers limp home defeated and with less money and optimism.

We will try our best to beat the odds and pick some winners, over a grass course that has not had a plethora of rain over the the past month.

Here we go:

1st: 4-8-5/7/3-11/10…I go with Backgammon (4) in the ole’ lid-lifter to the Thursday card and the opener of the meet. This 2YO daughter of Maximum Security comes to town for trainer Mark Casse, who is winning with .16% of his 955 starters this year. Does well with turf horses, too, and wins with .15% of those trying the sod for the first time. Gets Jose Ortiz up here, and he normally excels at this meet. Comes in off a subpar effort last time out, but that was the first try in two months and the dam of this one has already thrown a turf winner and two Stakes winners, too. May find this course to her liking. Aggressive Lime (8) may be the horse to beat and the favorite by PT. This daughter of Authentic comes in for trainer Brad Cox, who is having another great year and winning with .26% of his starters. This one is a homebred and training well for this one, too. Threat. Riotus (5) will make the first start on the grass for a trainer who wins with .28% of the last 18 to debut on the sod. Bred well for this 1-mile distance and the dam has 3 turf winners from 8 starters and 2 Stakes winners, as well. Threat here, as well. I bet the 4-8 across the board and the box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the top 3 over/under the 7 in two smaller units.

2nd: 6-(13)-11/(15)-(14)-3-7/2-8-(16)-10…This is another MSW event for the 2YO fillies, but this one is set for the sprint distance of 6.5 furlongs. I go hunting with Sharp Mindset (6). This daughter of Street Sense looked to have a big shot in the career debut, but tired at the end of that solid effort, which was distanced at 5.5 furlongs. Should be fitter here and the barn does well with the win rate this year, earning 23% first place finishes after 400 starts. Frankie Dettori gets the saddle job here and that could help this potential grass star. If Should’ve (13) draws in from the AE List, take a good look here. Comes from the barn of Wesley Ward, who thrives on these short meets and with grass sprinters, too. Wins with .26% of first time starters. Sharp work on Aug. 21. Dam has a turf winner and a Stakes winner to her credit. Next Award (11) is a first timer for a highly under-rated trainer and could be on his game right now, going 2-1-2 in the last 6 starts. This Not This Time fillet is out of a Stakes-winning mare who has already thrown 6 turf winners. Wow time. I bet the 13 across the board, if she draws in. If not, I will bet the 6-11 across the board. I box the top 3 numbers that get into the body of the race. I will also key the 13 over/under the 6-11-15-14-3-7 in the 13 gets in. 

3rd: 7-1/5-2…This is a 11/2-mile endurance test for the older mares and I line up with Stultify (7). This daughter of Triple Crown winner Justify comes in off two impressive wins in a row and has a 2-1-1 mark in 4 starts over the grass. Looks like she may be the speed of the race and she can stretch it out here, with a possible gallop. I bet the 7 to win/place and double down on the win wager. I box the 7-1 in a stern exacta box and then I key the 7-1 over/under the 5-2 in two smaller units.

4th: 7-6/8-2/4/1…I go right back to the “7” hole here and pick up Foxxy Cleopatra (7). This daughter of Munnings has 3 wins and 3 seconds in 7 career starts and has never been worse than 2nd in 4 starts over the sod for a top trainer, who is winning with .26% of 208 starts this year. This one has speed and may dominate this group, too. I bet the 7 to win/place and double down on the win wager. I will box the 7-6 in a stern exacta box and then key the 7-6 over (only) the 8-2-4-1 in a smaller unit.

5th: 7-5-8/4-6//2…Can we get three straight “7s” home? I am going to try here today. Miwa (7) is a 4YO fillet who found some great success overseas before getting sold and shipped here. Has found the running a bit more difficult on this side of the waterways. But the first start was very encouraging and if she can find her old shoes, she may love this European styled course, too. Gets Jose Ortiz up and he is a veteran of these hills and dales. Look out here. Unreasonable (5) figures to be the big favorite by PT. This Irish-bred comes off a win in her last out at Saratoga and she started the career in Ireland, too. Should be familiar with this type of course, of course, if she likes the firm ground. They will hear a little clatter on this ground. Lucky Speech (8) picks up the hottest rider in KY these days for this one and that should help the cause. Ran huge two starts ago and does possess a win over this course. Usually, the ones that like KY Downs, really like KY Downs. Don’t be surprised is this one shows up big here. I bet the 7-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. 

6th: 9-4/6-7-1-8/10/3-5…Intricate Spirit (9) ships in for one of the best young trainers in the game today, and the man who got the barn revved up soon after the awful passing of his mentor and dad. Has won .23% of the first 150 starts and does very well with grass races — winning at a .24% rate in 125 outs. This 2YO colt comes in off a huge win at Saratoga and now moves up to face winners for the first time. Big class jump, but looks capable. Johnny’s Red Storm (4) is another shipping in off a win at Saratoga. Easy capture that day, running off by over 4 lengths as the PT favorite. Barn wins with .21% of those making the 2nd grass start. Son of Twirling Candy, who is having a superb year. Dam of this one has 2 turf winners already. Look out. I bet the 4 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the 9-4 sternly in the exactas. I key the 4 over/under the 9-6-7-1-8-10 in two smaller units. 

7th: 3-12/1-6-2/8-(13)-(15)/4-7…Tailored (3) is a first time starter for trainer Brad Cox and the breeder/owner Godolphin Inc. The owners have had a huge year in the States, considering they bred and own Sovereignty, as well. This one is by Medaglia d’Oro and will try the sod on first ask. Cox wins with .18% of those starting on the grass. This one has trained very well over the all-weather track at Turfway Park this summer and looks like he is the real deal. Take note. Turf Star (12) already has a start under his girth for trainer Graham Motion and came with a late rush to be 2nd at Saratoga. Had trouble in that one, too. Was clipped from behind in the early going. Picks up Dettori here and should be a tough out. I bet the 12 across the board — take note — and then box the 3-12 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 3-12 over/under the 1-6-2-8 in two smaller units. 

8th: 4-6-9/7-2-5//3…Sassy C W (4) could get trainer Larry Rivelli off to a fast start this meet. This 2YO filly has won three in a row to start the career and has led start to finish in all three. This track is a tougher sell, though. The last furlong is uphill and the stretch out is to 6.5 furlongs today. This is an 1/8th longer that she has ever been. Rider will have to conserve some energy for the last bit, but she has the talent to whip them again, if she rates just a hair. Mackinac (6) came with a late rush to be 2nd in the career debut at Saratoga last out. Was bet down in that one, and the winner came right back to win the next outing, too. . If this one can stay close enough, she will get a good chance to run down the winner. Let’s see. Sapphire Beach (9) is an Irish-bred by No Nay Never and has more experience that her stablemate. Will need a little luck to keep going here in the stretch, but may make the 4 earn it. I bet the 6 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 6 over/under the 4-9-7-2-5 in two smaller units. 

9th: 10-6-11/(14)-7/1-3…Scattitude (10) gets my vote here. This 3YO daughter of Violence is out of a Scat Daddy mare, who was a Stakes-winner and has thrown 4 turf winners already. One of those 4 is this gal, who ran 2nd last time out at Ellis Park. She made up a ton of ground that day and should love this course. Cuts back in distance. Picks up a top rider and the barn wins with .18% when going from a sprint to a route and then back to a sprint. Should be salty. Mechaya (6) picks up Lasix for the first time and that could help this filly, who was distanced in the G3 Regret Stakes last time out. Has faced Stakes company in the last 4 outs and the class relief here could help the head and the legs. Worth a look. Grade A (11) is another experienced Stakes horse who ran third in the Pea Patch Sakes just two starts back. Has hit the board in 3 of 5 turf faces. Went from the sprinter to a closer. May like to stalk here. I bet the 10 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas and then key the top 3 numbers over/under the 14-7 in two smaller units. 

10th: 14-7/6-5-3/12/13-(15)/8-9…Tapit Stakes…The first Stakes event of the meet is worth $500,000 and it has drawn a very nice field of older colts and geldings. I go with the horse that will enter the last post in the starting gate — Lagynos (14). This is not an ideal spot to begin the fray. Granted. But the race is set to go 1 mile and 70 yards and with the hills, dales and all the bustling that will go on, I think he will have plenty of opportunities to utilize his stalking ability to carve out a decent trip. If so? This son of Kantharos will be a tough out. Has not won this year in 5 starts, but does have a 2nd and three more 3rds on the resume against very tough company. Has a 3rd in the G2 Wise Dan and a 3rd in the G3 Arlington Stakes. Got beat in both of those by less than a length. If Jose Ortiz can get him a trip? Look out. Cameo Performance (7) will have a good shot here, too. Gets the blinkers on for the first time and the barn wins with .18% when they add the shades. Will race as a gelding for the first time, too, and that may help with the focus issues. Has not won in 3 starts this year, but went 2-for-5 a year ago. Gets Tyler Gaffalione back in the saddle here and he has a win with this one in the past. I bet the 14 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I box the 14-7 in the exacta and then I key the 14-7 over/under the 6-5-3-12 in two smaller units. 

11th: 2/4-7-10-(15)/6-9…The final race of the day is my “Key Play of the Day.” I go big on Swirling Eights (2). This one has hit the board in 4 of 6 lifetime starts and has hit the board in 4 of 5 on the grass. Returns here as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .24% of the last 360 to quality for that title. Mike Maker has owned KY Downs in the past. Looks to have a big shot in this one here. Gets a top rider to take the reins and this one just may not stop at this distance. I bet the 2 to win/place and double/triple down on the win wager. I will key the 2 over/under the 4-7-10-15-6-9 in the exactas. More with the 4-7-10 than the rest. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene