Opinion: McLean’s Monday Musings & A Little Muck for the Pit

It’s some of our thoughts and reflections about what has happened in the horse world over the past weekend, and, perhaps over the past week. Some are good thoughts. Some may be afterthoughts. Some may call them our “Monday Morning Quarterbacking” thoughts. And, yes, some will be our figurative “pitch fork tosses” into the proverbial “Muck Pit.”

So, without further adieu, here’s our next few pitches (and some fork):

“Winners” & “Losers” From Today’s Draw For 149th Kentucky Derby:

The “Draws” for Post Positions for both the Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby — led by the polished and professional track announcer Travis Stone — were conducted on Monday at Churchill Downs with posh, pub, promo,  skill and style points.

(By the way. That man. Stone. Well, he has a voice as smooth as the Woodford Reserve “Secretariat” bourbon being sold this year. Just a pro’s pro. And, to top it off, the guy is a Southern gentleman, too. Hard to have an event with that guy at the helm and it now be a show. The guy’s a “Showman.”)

And, at first blush, it appears (at least to me) that there were two clear-cut winners in the selection of the gate assignments, and one very disappointing “loser” before the race ever begins.

Before we go on, though, we must issue a bit of a disclaimer and an “editor’s note,” of sorts:

While, IMO, the Post Position cannot guarantee or, truthfully, assist a horse in winning either the Oaks or the Derby, the starting gate beginning can most definitely hinder or hurt a horse’s chances of capturing either of the world’s most historic and majestic races. In our opinion.

Without question, the first few strides leaving the start of any race can be very important, if not critical. A mild stumble may take a horse out of what it likes to do best. A bump or jostle could knock a horse off stride and off their intended game and plan. And, in a field of 14 or 20 horses? It can be dramatic, if not traumatic. It can either launch a horse into the beginnings of a dream trip. Or. It can haunt a horse and rider in one of the world’s most difficult journeys. It can be the race, all rolled into a second or two. In our opinion.

And, in our opinion, the winners in this year’s “pill drop” appear to be Tapit Trice (who got the #5 starting spot) and Practical Move (who will start from post #10).

Tapit Trice — the winner of the G1 Blue Grass in his final prep for this year’s Derby, and a winner of 4 of 5 career races — may have gotten the “golden spot,” if you want to dwell into the pros and cons of this year’s draw.

This beautiful gray son of the super sire Tapit will have one of the world’s best riders on his back in Luis Saez, who was disqualified from his lone Kentucky Derby win on the back of Maximum Security. But since that awful day, the rider has been reborn since hiring the ultra-classy Kiaran McLaughlin to become his agent.

And, that dynamic duo of horse and rider will leave the starting gate from what could be the most ideal spot.

There is speed to the inside. Verifying, who Tapit Trice edged in the Blue Grass, along with Two Phils and Confidence Game may go. Quick. In a hurry. Fast.

There is some speed to the outside, too. Kingsbarns, who won the G2 Louisiana Derby on the lead, Jace’s Road and a handful of possible pretenders may want to go in a hurry, too. Quick. Fast.

But Tapit Trice — a big bully of a horse — may be able to plow out a very nice spot just behind the front-runners in that all-important and strategic rally and ride to the first turn. And, if that is the case, he could be in the perfect spot to run the race of his lifetime. He may be in the perfect spot to make the first serious run into and out of the final turn, when the important runs must begin. He may be in the perfect spot in the stretch to finish the final run, when the guts must take over for the talent and glory is yards away.

Add it up. A very talented horse. A very talented rider. And, now, that duo may begin this year’s event in what may be the perfect spot, too.

Could be a tough combo.

(Practical Move / Photos by Holly M. Smith)

The other “winner,” in our view, could be this year’s newest Hollywood heart throb — Practical Move. This son of Practical Joke comes into this year’s Derby off an impressive win in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and now has a record of 4-1-2 in 7 career starts.

But here’s the thing…

This guy is used to running against only 3 or 4 other horses, at a time. Total. After all, it is California. A full field at Santa Anita, these days, normally requires a gate crew that could double as the starting five on a basketball team.

If this colt had gotten buried down on the rail, or fanned on the far outside with either 19 others coming down on him or having to circle 19 others inside of him? It may have been game over before the game ever started.

Instead, Practical Move gets to start right in the middle. With a clean break, rider Ramon Vasquez should be able to choose if he wants to go forward and challenge for a front-running spot, or settle off the early speedsters and wait for a more advantageous time to utilize his horse’s natural speed and talent.

Could be a perfect setting.

Could be. May be. Now, it’s time to see if they can be.

(Hit Show / Photos by Holly M. Smith)

The biggest loser on “Draw Day,” though, appears to be one of the horses that I had planned — and still plan to, for that matter — bet on the most. Unfortunately, “Draw Day” turned into a mispronunciation of the horse’s name — Hit Show. (Just say the name fast 3 or 4 times and let the “S” slide over to the first name, a bit. Get it?)

The rail has never been a good spot in the Kentucky Derby. Once upon a time, the rail horse had to break, and, actually, move to his right immediately just to avoid running right into the rail in front of him.

That situation is better these days with the new starting gate, which has all 20 stalls fitted into one mobile unit. That has allowed the starting gate to be moved a path or two away from the rail, and give a more “fair” start to the inside runner.

But that situation is still far from ideal. Far. Far. Far. From ideal. There is still 19 horses to the outside and a clean start and a clever, quick maneuver to gain a good spot is a must. Not an option, mind you. A must.

Hit Show and rider Manny Franco have to be alert. Have to be spot on. Have to nail the break. Have to find a spot. Have to.

Or “the collapse” and “avalanche” could be on. And, could be overwhelming.

With all that written, and more writing and handicapping to come, I’m still locked in on my top 3 horses to key in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

They will be, in this order:

— Forte

— Hit Show

— Angel of Empire

I plan to bet those horses with the likes of Tapit Trice, Mage, Disarm, and, perhaps, Rocket Can.

But “The Draw” may have thrown more than a wrinkle into what I had hoped was a firmly pressed idea going in.

More to come. More pressing to come.

(Wet Paint / Photos by Holly M. Smith)

KY Oaks Draw Comments:

For quite some time, I have loved Wet Paint, who is the 5-2 ML favorite for this year’s Kentucky Oaks. Nothing happened on Monday to, well, dampen those thoughts. I still think this gal — who has proven she can run on all kinds of dirt surfaces — is the horse to beat. If they can beat her, at all.

She is that good.

But over the past few weeks, I do think that several horses have really moved up and now appear to be on the verge of a possible upset. And, Monday’s “Draw” may have benefited their respective cases.

(The Alys Look / Photos by Holly M. Smith)

(Gambling Girl / Photos by Holly M. Smith)

I think both The Alys Look and Gambling Girl locked in really good spots from the #2 and #3 respectively. The former gets HOF rider Javier Castellano up and the latter will have the world’s best rider in Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle. Both should have a clear and clean run to push this group early and often.

The attractive thing about both of them, too, is that The Alys Look is 15-1 in the ML, and Gambling Girl sits at the same odds.

They offer a lot of value if they can make the finish line in combination with our top pick.

The attractive thing about both of them, as well, is that two other serious considerations didn’t fare so well in the “Draw.”

Affirmative Lady, who will break from #13 with rider John Velazquez, and Pretty Mischievous, at #14, who will start from the far outside with regular rider Tyler Gaffalione, will have to move earlier than expected to gain position by the first turn, too.

That leg burn may be enough to zap them of the necessary energy to finish off the job in the stretch.

Maybe.

More to come. Part II.

Let the games begin.

Let the handicapping lights burn.

More pressing to come.

Muck Pit:

Maybe the Louisville Metro Police folks — who are in charge controlling both human and car traffic to and from the grand Churchill Downs — can mellow just a bit this week.

Hopefully. Maybe. Prayerfully.

After all, this is horse race. It is supposed to be fun.

After all, this is Louisville’s week to shine, and we need to make the experience of the 149th Kentucky Derby as enjoyable as possible for all our visitors and friends. It is supposed to be fun.

After all, these are Churchill Downs’ greatest days, and its’ team has worked amazingly hard to get the grounds, facilities, and fans ready for an extravaganza. Which is, after all, supposed to be fun.

And, getting to Churchill Downs on Opening Night this past Saturday?

Well, that was not fun. At all.

The traffic didn’t move efficiently.

The drivers seemed stunned by the changes of lanes and directions.

The lots that used to be open now seemed to be closed to only “bus traffic.”

Most of all, though, the cop who resorted to yelling and screaming at nearly every car and driver, who seemed confused, really needs to take a chill aspirin.

Or, better yet, maybe he should ask for a transfer. Somewhere else. Anywhere else.

The harsh reality is that harsh words never work.

Never.

Ever.