Final Version & Bonus Coverage: McLean’s Selections for Fair Grounds on Saturday, Dec. 21

(Stats to be updated)

Here’s our looks at the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” card at the Fair Grounds in lovely New Orleans today. What a card. What a day. Should be fun doing a little Mardi Gras dance on Bourbon and on bourbon Street. Here you go:

1st: 2-3//4-5-7…Louisiana Wildlife (2) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the Fair Grounds on this kickoff Saturday to the 2025 “Road to the Kentucky Derby.” This is an allowance event for the Louisiana-breds that have never won 2 lifetime. And, our pick is a son of the star of the LA-breds stallion community — Star Guitar. Has been out only once so far. Won on debut here on Nov. 28. Comes back for a solid training operation. Look for a repeat effort here in the first try against winners. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I box the 2-3 in the exactas. I key the 2-3 over (only) the 4-5-7 in a smaller unit. 

2nd: 8-2-5/3//4-7-9…This event is another race restricted to the LA-breds, and is an allowance for the female division. I go to the outside and saddle up with Undercover Girl (8). This one comes from the barn of HOFer Steve Asmussen and will get rider Jose Ortiz up. Ortiz has won 27 of the first 77 mounts this meet. That equates to a whopping win percentage of .35%. Wow number. And, this daughter of KY Derby winner Nyquist has a win and a third over this track in 3 tries here. I’m in here. I bet the 8 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3 in two smaller units. 

3rd: (15)-(16)/10/3-1-9/4-(13)-(14)-2-5…This is the first turf event of the day and slated for an allowance for the males. If it comes off the turf, I go immediately to the two “Main Track Only” horses entered. They look the best. But if it stays on the sod? I go strong with My Boy Tony (10). This is a 4YO gelded son of Noble Mission and comes in off a near-miss 2nd at Churchill Downs on Nov. 21. In 8 turf starts, to date, this one has a 1-4-1 mark. Could have easily won a number of those 2nd place finishes. Gets a top rider here, too. Look out. I bet the 15-16 if it comes off the turf, if it stays on? I play the 10 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 10 over/under 3-1-9-4-13-14 in the exactas. More with the 3-1-9-4 than the rest. 

4th: 4-6//1-5-2/3…Sugar Bowl Stakes…This is the first of 8 Stakes events in a row. Eight. Wow. And, this one is a 6-furlong sprint for the 2YOs. I go with Tough Catch (4). This son of Complexity has the most experience and will get Lasix for the first time. Trainer wins with .09% of the last 47 to get the anti-bleeder for the first time. Sharp work on Dec. 14. Gets a top rider who has won on him before. Adds up to a contender for me. Countthebrave (6) will get Lasix for the first time, as well, and comes off a near-miss 2nd at Keeneland in October. Rest may help, as the works have been on fire. Looks to be a speedy type. I bet the 4 across the board and then box the 4-6 in the exactas. I will key the 4 over/under the 1-5-2-3 in two smaller units. 

5th: 3-2-1/5/4/6…Letellier Stakes…This is the Sugar Bowl’s sister race for the 2YO fillies and I go with another from the barn of Dallas Stewart. Gerlin’s Empire (3) will get Lasix and the blinkers for the first time here. Two changes may equal a win. Has caught an off-track in the last two and that has not helped this one’s cause. Last time on a fast track? Won comes from off the pace. Look for a similar effort with a dry surface. Sycamore Shoals (2) will get Lasix for the first time, as well, and comes in as a maiden. Has a 2nd and a 3rd on the resume after two starts. Talented. But needs to win. Her Laugh (1) will not run here and instead will go in the Untapable Stakes later. That makes this spot a little easier for the top 2. I bet the 3 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 3-2 in the exactas. I will key the 3-2 over/under the 5-4-6 in two smaller. 

6th: 3-2-1/5/4/6…Blushing K D Stakes…This is a 11/16-mile trek over the sod and I go with Stir Crazy (3). This one is the ML favorite, but could slip up in the odds before PT. Ran a very nice 4th in the G3 Cardinal at Churchill Downs in the last out. Has 6 tries at this distance with 2 wins and 3 seconds. Niche. Callie’s Grit (2) is all speed and may carve out a simple trip. But there’s other speedy types in here and that could compromise the effort. If clear? And, gone? Look out. Lute Warm (1) ships in for this one. Had a string of 4 straight wins snapped last time out at KEE. Looks like her wins came against easier. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will also key the top 3 over/under the 5 in two smaller units. 

7th: 3-5/2/1/4…Gun Runner Stakes…One of the first real important runs to the 2025 Kentucky Derby starts right here and I go with Magnitude (3). While these connections also raced Gun Runner, this 2YO colt is by the top stallion Not This Time and has carved out 2 wins in the first 4 starts. The G3 Iroquois was a toss for me. Squeezed in-between horses that day and backed out of the muscle. Gets a new rider here and one who is tearing it up. Has won 41% of the last 29 mounts for this barn, too. Admiral Dennis (5) may be the horse to beat. Trained by Brad Cox for the Albaugh Family and named after the patriarch — Dennis. Has two impressive runs to start the career. Look out. This one could be a star in the making. Would not surprise me.  I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-5 in the exactas. I will key the 3-5 over/under the 2 in two smaller units. I’ll double down on the 3-5 exacta, too. 

8th: 1-2/9/7-3-4/5-8…Richard R. Scherer Memorial Stakes…This is a sod affair going the specialty distance of 5.5 furlongs. I will launch with Mischievous Rogue (1). This one was claimed for $80,000 last time out after a miraculous closing effort nearly made a winner out of the 6YO son of Into Mischief. Has been in 10 turf races during the career and has a 3-3-1 record. Has gone 3-3-0 in 7 tries at the distance. The new barn thrives with these types. Wins with .21% in the first try after a claim. Gets a new rider, who is doing well here. Will be coming very late and will need some racing luck. Bear River (2) is a whopping 20-1 in the ML, according to Brisnet.com. I think this speedster has a shot here and has won over this sod before. Look for this one to go right to the front and, perhaps, never look back. Worth a shot for me. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will also bet the 2 across the board in a lesser amount. I will box the 1-2 in the exactas. I will also key the 1-2 over/under the 9-7-3-4 in two smaller units. 

9th: 7/1-2/6//3-8/5…Tenacious Stakes…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Saudi Crown (7). This 4YO son of Always Dreaming is either very, very, very good. Or not so much. I think he will be very good in this spot. Has a win here before and has gone 4-1-1 in 9 dirt starts over a fast track. In those, he has won over $2.4 million. In the last three losses, though? Lost by 58 lengths. Lost by 21 lengths. Lost by 12 lengths. Ugh. Either very good. Or not. I think good here. I bet the 7 to win/place and double down on the win wager. I will key the 7 over/under the 1-2-6 in the exactas. 

10th: 2-6-3/1//4-5-7…Buddy Diliberto Memorial Stakes…This is the last turf race of the day and if it sticks on the sod, I will line up with Gigante (2). This son of Not This Time has gone 4-1-2 in 14 grass starts. Drops out of a G3 last time out (when 3rd) and should fine this spot a bit easier. Has a win and a runner-up in 3 starts over this sod. Will be stalking and closing. Hottest rider alive gets the mount. Another Mystery (4) is an Illinois-bred for trainer Chris Block. Do not ignore. This guy can train the heck out of a horse and has won 4 in a row up in Chicago. Granted, not against much competition. But the man knows where and how to spot them. I use. Swiftsure (3) has won the only two starts ever on the grass. No reason to believe this speedster can’t give a solid run at 3 in a row. Speed. Speed. Speed. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box the to 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two smaller units. 

11th: 5-6-4/1/7-3/2…Untapable Stakes…This is an event on the “Road to the Kentucky Oaks,” and I go with Brad Cox and his 2YO daughter of Quality Road in California Sunset (5). Won last time out when picking up blinkers for the first time. Likely to come from off the pace, so will need some pace to run into and a little luck finding a hole. But talented, to be sure. Amarth (6) has won two in a row and has the experience edge on these. Rates a chance as a stalker. Golden Gamble (4) just may be the real talent in this race, though. Won the MSW last time out by over 9 lengths at Churchill Downs. Most can’t do that at Churchill Downs. Lost to the top pick in the first outing, but the trainer primes them after the first start. Real threat. Real. I bet the 5-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will box the 5-4 in another box, as well.

12th: 1-3-12/4-8/5-9-2-10/6…The day’s finale and I will go with the railbird — Morlock (1). This 2YO son of Bernardini gets Lasix for the first time and has run 4 2nds in a row. Four of them. May just find the key here. Limited Edition (3) will get Lasix for the first time, too, and has run two solid races to begin the career. Will be closing and could make things interesting at the wire. I bet the 1 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 in the exactas. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene