It’s less than a week until the big fat guy comes to pay a visit (no, that’s isn’t me!). Have your gotten all of your Christmas shopping done? No? Are you kidding. Well, let’s pick up some extra shopping money today, why don’t we. Here is a closer look at today’s card at The Fair Grounds:

1st: 3-4-2-1-7…Suppose So (3) gets the edge in this spot after nearly pulling off the win in the last out. Made the lead late in that effort over a sloppy track, and just was nabbed at the wire. Comes right back for a high percentage trainer, and is likely to catch a wet track again today, with rain in the forecast. This one has 2 seconds in 4 tries on an “off” track. Has a record of 2-5-1 in 11 starts this year. Hope to get on top in here. Off Cycle (4) won her last out by 23/4 lengths over a sloppy Fair Grounds main track on Nov. 30.  Had a brilliant a.m. work before that effort, and looks really sharp right now and fits with these today. Catherine’s Dream (2) is a nice price play at 8-1 ML. She stalked a solid pace last time out and finished third against similar back in August. Had a really nice work on Nov. 16 here. Might grab part of it, and potentially split the exacta. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

2nd: 6-1-5-4…Hate to single one at this level, but Quarter Carat certainly appears to be a solid wager in this grouping. And, by virtue of all her credentials, she gets the first Best Bet of the Day. Goes for a hot trainer and the meet’s top rider, who have combined to win .32% of their efforts over the last 60. Gets a nice price plunge for this one, after facing Stakes company two and three back. I bet the 6 to win/place and then key the 6 over/under all the rest of the numbers listed.

3rd: 4-8-5-3…Baydar (4) has not been dazzling in the first two, but gets a huge class drop for this one, and despite being dusted in the first two efforts at Churchill Downs, she has faced much better competition in those two tries. Gets her third different rider in the first three outs, and that is not a great sign. But she fits in this spot based on her Brisnet Speed Figures. Medlin (8) ran second, while beaten over 4 lengths in her last out at this level. She did come back with a nice work here on Dec. 14, and that could sharpen this one up a bit for today. Trainer hits at .23% with MC. Glory Train (5) came with a nice closing effort on debut at Churchill Downs in November. fPicks up a nice rider switch for this one, and the trainer hits with .28% with second career racers. This one may be able to close better with today’s longer distance. Can’t dismiss at all at 6-1 ML odds. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta.

4th 3-4-1-6-8…Keep an eye out to see if this one stays on the turf…if it does, here is how I go: The meet’s leading rider will team up with the meet’s top trainer on Krafty Boy, who figures to be this race’s top horse. They won their last three races together and this one has hit the board in 6 of the last 7 races, and all of them that he has been able to finish. Looks really good right now, and should be tough again — despite the move up in class. Saved At Sea (4) ran 5th in the last out, but was only beaten 21/4 lengths in that try. Trainer hits with .27% with horse’s second try off a layoff. Works are OK, too, since the last out. Culp’s Hill (1) caught some tough customers in Stakes company in the last try here. Plummets to a $20,000 claiming event today and that’s the lowest price tag on the PPs. Picks up a positive rider change. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then key the 3 over/under all the other numbers.

5th: 2-7-1-3-5-4…My first Upset Play of the Day comes in this spot with Nineteenth Street (2). This gal ran a solid second against Girls Know Best at Churchill Downs on Nov. 10 and has come right back to work very well here in New Orleans for a trainer trying to get off the snide in the Big Easy. This one tried Stakes company at Churchill Downs in September and is now in for $40,000 claiming. Not a bad pickup opportunity right here. My “dot” (must use) goes to another 6-1 ML shot in Gris Gris (7), who peaked my interest with the work here on Dec. 14 — when she went a half mile in a bullet :483/5 that morn. Ran in the G2 Eight Belles and the G2 Rachael Alexandra earlier this year. Trainer OK with ones off the bench, too (.16%). Breaking Bread (1) and a host of others have a shot in here, as well. I bet the 2-7 to win/place/show and they key those two over/under the “all button” in the exactas.

6th: 7-9-1-4-11…Another one that you need to watch to see if it stays on the grass. If it does, I go strong with Magic Joan (7) — who is another Best Bet of the Day. Goes for a top trainer in Brad Cox, and when he teams up with jockey Florent Geroux over the last 60, they have combined to hit with .22% of their 41 mounts together. This one is a deep closer and should love this spot. Decant (9) is a Tapit filly that sold for a mere $25,000 (can you say “bargain buy of the year?”). She broke her maiden at Gulfstream Park in September on the grass and ran well in the next out against winners. Ships in from Oaklawn Park for this one. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under the “all button” in this spot.

7th: 11-9-7-1A…The outside post position has been a difficult starting point, and a tougher running start. But this 2YO filly goes for the hottest trainer on the grounds (.32%) and gets a huge, huge, huge rider switch for this try. Has been training well, too. If she can break well — which she has the speed to do — then she may be able to overcome the obstacles. Bellissima Indy (9) ran OK on debut at Churchill Downs in September before catching too brisk of a pace in the last try on a sloppy track. May not have liked that track surface, too. I dismiss the last one, and come right back with a trainer who hits with .22% of horses he enters in Maiden Claiming events. Lady Blessings (7) drops from MC40 all the way to MC15 in a fire sale for this daughter of Shanghai Bobby. May be worth the bargain basement price here in the claim box. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then key the 11 over/under all the rest in the exactas.

8th: 6-8-2-11…A third Turf event that shifts gears significantly if moved off the sod. If it does, keep an eye on the #15. If it stays on the green, I go to Luna (6) — a 2YO filly by former Kentucky Derby winner Orb. This gal is trained by Michael Stidham, a fan favorite here, and will be ridden by Joe Bravo, perhaps the best in the irons at this meet. Bravo pumps the meet’s leading rider out of the saddle for this try. This one was just nipped in the last try here on Nov. 25, when closing with a rush. Beware. Starving Artist (8) nearly broke her maiden in the last try, going a mile here in the same race with the preferred choice. Should improve off that effort, and could be tough late. Kabella (2) gets back on the grass and that should help her. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then key the 6 over/under all the rest listed.

9th: 7-5-8-1-10…Elle Les Yu (7) is entered by a trainer off to a horrendous start with winners. He has saddled only 1 in the first 23 tries. But he has hit the board with 8 seconds and 3 thirds. That’s 12 out of the 23 — for more than .50% ITM. This 3YO filly has speed and can stalk, both nice credentials for this start. Will need to utilize both to get a good trip from the outside post. Shy Ruston (5) and Custom for Corales (8) both have a shot in this spot, as well. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then key the 7 over/under all the other numbers listed.

Good Luck &

All the Best/Gene