McLean’s Picks for Churchill Downs on Thursday, May 10

We are not off to the greatest of handicapping meets. We had two days last week, Wednesday and Friday where we combined for just one win. That will kill any percentage, especially when we are just starting a race meeting.

But we did have a solid Kentucky Derby Day, and we finished that card on Saturday with making money in the exactas in the last four — despite only picking one winner in that group.

That restores some confidence, and our overall 2018 numbers are still solid — with our top pick winning at at 35% clip.

Here is a closer look at today’s card:

1st: 6-2-8-4-7…The day begins with a 4.5 furlong sprint for the 2YO babies. We go with Wosie (6), who will be making the first time start at this $40,000 claiming level. This one is a home bred for Brad Grady. The sire hits with 17% winners in the first start, and the rider is sure to get going soon — just like us. This one has some nice works of late and could gun from the beginning in this spot. Beach Getaway (2) is something that everyone could us about this time of year. This filly didn’t fire in the MSW event at Keeneland, but now gets a little class relief as she drops into the claiming ranks for the first time. Jockey is off to a horrid start this year and this meet. But this one could be OK, still. Dixieland Punkin (8) has been out-working her stablemate, Dixie Red (7). Still, the company odds maker puts the 7 as a slight favorite. I go with the outside horse of the two. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-2-8 in one exacta.

2nd: 5-1-8-2-3-4-7-9-6…This is a wide-open affair with many potential wire winners. I go with Vandelay (5), who ran a game second — beaten just a neck — in his first time in the claiming ranks at Keeneland on April 11. Made the lead in that one and nearly carried them the entire way before giving way late. Had a second here in June of last year, and drops in class even more today. Should be very tough at this spot. Gets a under-appreciated rider who has already put up 5 wins and 6 seconds in just 32 starts to date. Real contender here. Ghost Story (1) gets the drop into the claiming ranks for the first time today, and the trainer hits with .19% of those making this type of drop. New rider is super aggressive, and should get a huge help if able to break well and hold the spot on the rail before the outsiders drop over. Hawk (8) will go for a new trainer for the first time today. Has not been seen in the afternoons since March 2017. But this one is switching back to the dirt, and had a super work here on March 7 in a blowout effort. Top rider gets up today. Adds up. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I key the top 3 over the rest in a smaller version.

3rd: 7-8-5-4-1-2-9…This is another wide open race, but I settle on Tiznoble (7), who will be making his first career start for a new trainer — the young, aspiring Norm Casse. He’s looking for his first win as a trainer, too, since going out on his own earlier this year. He picked this one up after a solid effort in the mud up at Aqueduct in February. Trained very well at Keeneland on April 27. He gets the drop down a level after the purchase, and he was pretty tough at about this same level when winning by over 8 in January. The key horse in this race. Chief of Staff (8) gets the drop back into the claiming ranks after facing tougher at Oaklawn Park in the last two. He won three races ago at about this same level and did run a solid second last time out. The horse to beat. Catanova (5) was claimed out of the last one, as well, by a trainer that does hit with .12% of those making the barn debut. Does have a win over this track last April, and has a record of 1-2-2 in 8 starts here. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I key the top 3 over the rest in a smaller version.

4th: 7-5-3-8-9-4-2-1…I key on the top two numbers in this heat. Ventry Bay (7) tired in the 2018 debut at Keeneland on April 19 and fell just a bit short in the return visit. Was beaten less than 3 lengths that day, thought, and that was the first race since October 17, 2017 and was from the 5-path throughout. If this son of Scat Daddy — whose progeny had a huge weekend — can get a little better spot, he could really move up in this spot for a trainer who scores with .20% of those making the second start off a layoff of this type and with 18% of those returning after beaten as the favorite. This one fits that category, as well. Trainer has 3-2-0 record in the last two weeks. Zipp On By (5) is a co-pick of mine in here. This one moves back to the grass, where he has a second in only two tries and that came against a nice one named The Gipper. Super work at Keeneland on May 2, and looks to be getting sharper every day. This is a gunner, and they will have to track him down late if he gets a clean break. Trainer hits with .28% of those returning after beaten as the favorite. Watch out. What’sontheagenda (3) is another speedster who should greatly benefit from the cutback to today’s 5-furlong distance. If he gets away from the gate clean, he will have to be caught, too. Nice work here on May 5. I bet the 7-5 across the board and then box those two solidly in one exacta. I key the 7-5 over/under all the numbers in two smaller versions.

5th: 3-7-9-2-6-10-4-8-5…East Moon (3) is my first “dot” (must use) and Best Bet of the Day play. This one ran second to a nice one in Electric Forest on April 7 at Keeneland. Gave up the lead late in that one, and the show horse has already returned to win the next time out. This daughter of Speightstown is well-bred and looks primed and ready for graduation in this spot. New rider off to a good meet here, too. Pretty Owl (7) is a very well bred daughter of Into Mischief and cost $250,000 as a 2YO in 2016. She nearly broke the maiden on debut at Del Mar last July. Was beaten by a very talented runner in Classy Tune that day. Has not been close in three races since, and now switches barns from Bob Baffert over to Steve Asmussen. Has been training very nicely for this new operation. I expect good returns. Pray for Leslie (9) is making the first time start for Al Stall, Jr., who has a record of 3-4-2 in just 11 starts here to begin the meet. This one is out of a dam who has two winners from the first three starters and the jockey has teamed up to score 3 wins and 2 seconds in just 5 starts for this barn in the last two weeks. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed. But I focus my plays with the 7-9-2-6…

6th: 5-2-1-3-10-4…Frank the Butcher (5) gets a big number for me in this spot today, as well. This one was claimed last time out by trainer Mike Maker for the owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey. She won that day drawing off by 5, but has not been seen in the afternoon since Feb. 18, and now she shows up for a price tag cheaper than the claiming price last time out. The trainer does hit with .17% with first timers in his barn. And, this one seems to be training OK. Won’t take much to best this field today, and gets the meet’s top rider in the irons. Distorted Ransom (2) goes for a trainer who hasn’t won a race all year. But he is dropping this one down the ranks considerably, and in the past he has hit with .36% of those making this type of plunge. Does have a second and a third in five tries here. Splash for Gold (1) drops all the way from $20,000 to $8,000 today. Trainer scores with .26% of those making a cut back from a route to a sprint. New rider today is solid. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the 5 over/under all the numbers in two smaller versions, as well.

7th: 3-7-9-11-10-2-4-1…A really nice allowance event to feature today’s card. Top two numbers in here are top shelf quality and caliber and I’m going to play them both across the board. Life’s Blessings (3) is a well-bred daughter of Tapit who won her last time out and now has a record of 2-2-1 in just 7 lifetime starts. She travelled East with the Derby Bunch for HOF trainer Bob Baffert. Doesn’t show a published work here, but this one has talent to burn, and she gets a top rider on board today. This one has the looks of a Stakes horse soon. Awestruck (7) is another daughter of Tapit, and she was just pure awesome in her 2018 debut when she toyed and then trounced a field of 5 others in an allowance event at Keeneland. Drew off by nearly 6 lengths that day and the rider didn’t even ask her. Super talent here, and ready to do more soon. Lilt (9) is no slouch either, and could split the top two if they are not careful. She has posted a record of 2-2-1 in just 5 starts to date, but has been really nice of late with two wins in the last three starts. The show horse in the last one has already come back to win in her next start. Gets blinkers for the first time today and the trainer hits with .12% with the equipment addition. I bet the 3-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I am going to key the 3 over all the numbers in a smaller version.

8th: 5-7-11-12-4-9-8…Overzealous (5) gets the slight edge in today’s finale over a well-balanced group of colts and geldings. He ran third on debut at Tampa back on March 23, but made a nice rally along the rail late in that one. With a bit of improvement, this son of Candy Ride should move up for a trainer that does hit with .21% in the MSW ranks. Dreamology (7) is the horse to beat, and, actually, will get my “Price Play of the Day” at 5-1 ML odds. This son of Medaglia d’Oro cost a hefty $500,000 as a yearling in 2015, and has not seen the starting gate since last October at Keeneland. He closed well against a standout group that day to lose by less than 3 lengths. Has been training super good for this return to the races for a top notch trainer. Do yourself a favor and do not leave this one out. Gets a top rider aboard, as well. He has a 3-1-2 record in the last 7 days with just 9 mounts. Bold Friends (11) has raced just once to date, finishing a well-beaten fifth in the debut effort at Oaklawn Park on Mach 25. Get to the grass for the first time today and should appreciate the surface switch. The added distance should help, as well, and this one has been training super good. This one cost $350,000 as a yearling in 2015. Love the 8-1 ML odds. I bet the 7 across the board, and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I key the top 3 over the rest in one more and then key the 7 over/under all the numbers in two smaller versions. Let’s go 7.

Good Luck & All the Best/Gene