Keeneland To Date: 75 Races-26-27-35

Keeneland Top Pick Win %: 34.60%

Keeneland Top Pick ITM %: 47 for 75 — 62.60%

Keeneland Top 3 Picks ITM %: 39.10%

2018 Overall: 560 Races-193-204-213

2018 Top Pick Win %: 34.50%

2018 Top 3 Picks ITM %: 36.30%

We have been on a roll over the last few days at Keeneland. We hope to continue to trend today, with an 8-race card. Here is a closer look at our selections:

1st: 4-6-8-2-1…Royal Asset (4) is the 2-1 ML favorite, and will get the saddle from Wesley Ward, who is having a super meet this Spring. He has a record of 6-4-2 in 16 starts this meet. This gelding will be making his first start since last November at Churchill. Trainer hits with .23% of those making a return from this type of a layoff, and this one did win last April off a longer layup. Is working well for the return and the jockey has hit with 40% in the last five rides for this barn. Pray Hard (6) will get the services of rider Gary Stevens for the West Coast trainer Doug O’Neill. Stevens rode this one at Oaklawn Park on March 9, and they ran second together against tougher. The trainer hits with .28% of those that were beaten as the favorite in the last race — and this one fits that category. Blue Wings (8) was claimed last time out and basically wheels right back at the same level today. This trainer hits with .23% of those making the initial start for the new barn. Just three races ago, this son of Giant’s Causeway ran third in a Stakes event at the Fair Grounds. Should fit well at this level. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will also box the 4-2 in a smaller version.

2nd: 5-7-1-3-4-2…Red Kite (5) has not been seen in the afternoons since September of 2016. That is 11/2 years ago. But in his MSW debut then, he ran a game second to a good one in Gormley. He was trained back then by the great Bob Baffert. Now, 11/2 years later, he is in the Midwest and starting out in a high-priced claimer. Has been training OK for this one, and gets the services of top rider Florent Geroux. Is now a gelding, and will get the use of Lasix for the first time, as well. Will be tough to do, but this one is listed at 8-1 ML odds. Like that. My Upset Special for the day. My Eminence (7) has faced some real good ones in the past. But he has raced 16 times now, and is still looking for that first, elusive, evasive, hard-to-find win. In the first 16 times to the gate, this son of Unbridled’s Song has run second 6 times, with 3 thirds. He has two good runs in a row with a second and a third. Can he ever make it to the circle? That’s a good question. I can bet him to do that, now, though. Riverboat Gambler (1) is 10-1 ML odds, and if he can team up with the preferred choice, we may be able to get a really nice payoff in this one. This 3YO is facing older colts and geldings in his first career start. That normally does not bode too well. But this one has been training so well here, and the trainer does score with 13% with first time starters. Has a shot. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 choices in one exacta. I key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed in two more smaller ones, as well.

3rd: (14)-6-10-5-12-8-4…If Strike Play (14) draws into this field, I think he immediately moves to the head of this handicapping class — even with the far outside post, which has not been good this meet. If not, I go immediately to the other 2YO colt in here that is trained by Wesley Ward — Wonder Stone (6). This one has been training very well and had a brilliant work over this track on April 13. The dam of this one has 1 winner from 1 starter, too. Vow Me Now (10) gets the unfortunate luck of drawing outside, but he has a really nice work here on April 12. Will need to flash some of that speed to sprint clear and be able to move closer to the rail entering the one turn for home. Joe Sharp, coming off a top meet at the Fair Grounds, has a winner and a second place finisher in just 3 starts here this meet. Dustingbrown (5) goes for a trainer who hits with .21% of first time starters. Dam has 1 winner in just  1 starter, too. Don’t know this rider. I bet the 14 or the 6 to win/place/show. I then box the 14-6-10 or the 6-10-5 in the exactas.

4th: 1-3-2-5…Devine Desire (1) draws the rail, which has been very good at this 6.5 furlong distance, producing 20% winners. Drops class for this one after disappointing in December. Has worked very well here, though, for the return to the races today, and gets a nice rider who has 5 wins in 21 starts this meet. Biggest factor here, though, may be the distance. This one is sprinting again. Best Bet of the Day. Stapleton (3) was claimed last time out after a last place finish by many, many lengths. Ran a good one just three races back here, when second to Thirstforlife, a good one. Should benefit from the drop in class and the sprint distance, too. He is 1-for-1 at 6.5 furlongs. Speedmeister (2) was claimed last time out by a trainer who scores on the first time out after the purchase on 38% of the time. This one was a beaten favorite, while running over the grass. Gets back to the dirt, where he broke his maiden here in 2016. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the numbers in the exacta.

5th: 5-6-4-2-7-8-1…Santa Monica (5) will be making her first start in NA today for one of the world’s hottest trainers — Chad Brown. This barn has put together an amazing record of 8-3-2 in just 16 starts this meet. This filly has not run since last November, when she was last seen in Great Britain. Nice training session over this turf on April 6. Will be trying to go 11/2 miles off the layup, but the trainer hits with .21% of those making their States’ debut and with 28% of those away from the track this long. Downton Kitten (6) ran in a Stakes event last time out and she didn’t fare too well, running last. But she did win at Kentucky Downs last September in a marathon event off a layoff, and she gets a good lawn rider. Canny (4) has been well beaten in the last four tries, but two of them were Graded Stakes events. She gets a nice class drop for this one and should be ready to go today for a solid barn operation. I bet the 5-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I key the top 3 over the rest in a smaller version.

6th: 4-5-2-7-6-1-1A-8…This is a wide, wide open MSW event going 6-furlongs on the main track. I go to Slim Fit (4) in this one, despite the fact that she is another one coming off a long layoff since moving from the West Coast. This daughter of Tiznow ran last July at Del Mar, running 4th to a classy filly by the name of Classy Tune. Before that, Slim Fit nearly won on debut, losing by less than a length. Has been working good at Tampa for this return. Looks fit and ready to go for a top trainer, who is picking up a classy rider. The pick. Pocket Book (5) is moving from the grass over to the main track today for a trainer that scores with .28% with those making this surface switch. She had a good work at Palm Meadows on March 16. Don’t know this rider in the least, but that is typical for this trainer. A Change of Heart (2) nearly won last time out when equipped with the blinkers for the first time. Gets a huge rider improve for this one , and has three solid races in a row under her belt. Nice work at Tampa on Feb. 15. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in one exacta. I key the 4 over/under all the numbers listed in two more.

7th: 6-2-8-5…Black Canary (6) hasn’t raced since last July, but this daughter of War Front should really take to this grass and the 5.5-furlong distance. She won at Saratoga while sprinting on the grass to break her maiden, and then ran very well back in July at Woodbine — when she was roughed up from get to go. Has been training well for the return and gets a top jock to sit in the saddle for this one. The pick for me. Parol (2) had a very wide trip last time out that compromised her effort, but before that she had hit the board in six straight. She has a record of 1-4-1 in just 8 starts to date. Should be running from off the pace late in this one, but will need an opening. Missseventhirteen (8) and Inspired Vow (5), I use underneath the top two. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then box the 6-2 solidly in one exacta. I then key the 6-2 over/under the other two numbers. 

8th: 1-7-8-5-10-13…I will concentrate my efforts on the top 3 numbers in this sequence. Ursula Andress (1) gets another Best Bet designation. She gets a nice drop in class for a trainer who hits with 30% of those getting this type of class relief from the last out. Moves from turf over to the dirt, and the trainer hits with .21% with those making this type of surface switch. Has had two super works in a row and looks ready for this one. Dancing Waves (7) and Oro Bird (8) both had rough starts in the last out, but both won the previous race. If either can duplicate those races two back, they are capable of giving the top choice a run for her money. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1 over/under all the other numbers listed.

Good Luck & All the Best/Gene