Another good day at the betting windows for Saratoga today. We had 3 winners 3 seconds and hit 6 of the first seven exactas on our picks below. We are already handicapping for tomorrow. We will be back soon with another patch of what we hope will be winning tickets.
All the Best/Gene
It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood…So, grab your inner Mr. Rogers and head out to the racetrack. Or a simulcast venue near you…and have some fun.
Here’s a look at Saratoga today:
1st: 1-7-5-6-3…Friend of Liberty (1) wheels back in four days (since he ran on Sunday; as in this past Sunday) after a gutty effort. Does he have anything left in the tank? We will see. Drafted out of that race by trainer Robert Falcone, who is good with horses off the claim box. Interesting approach. My horse to beat is a 10-1 ML shot in She’s Stunning (7). She has speed; has hit the board in 5 of 9 lifetime tries and has a win and a second in three shots at the distance. Drops in for a tag on the ship up from Parx. I take the plunge here. Honor Way (5), Easy Way Out (6) and Tainted Angel (3) are all about the same. If you use one of them, I think you have to use them all. I bet the (get this) 7 across the board and then box the 1-7 in one exacta and then key the 1-7 over/under the other three numbers listed.
2nd: 10-5-8-7…Brooklyn Speights (10) has 5 seconds to show for 10 career starts, but will stretch out today and may have a shot to carry this group from wire to wire. Not the strongest group in the world collected here. Heat Check (5) gets the blinkers off after two failed tries with them. Maybe that helps. Saratoga Colonel (8) actually moves up in class after showing little. Get my drift? I take the 10 to win/place and then key over/under the “all button.”
3rd: 3-6-4-1-5…Thebigfundamental (3) has never been off the board for Todd Pletcher and doesn’t figure to be today, either. This one is 9-5 ML and could go down from there in a good race, with some real contenders. But the blinkers may have hurt this one in the last, and the trainer discards them today. Watch out for this one. Doyouknowsomething (6) has made the gate a few more times than the preferred choice, as this will be his 34th career start. Has hit the board in 20 of the previous 33 and has raced against some real good ones this year — like Tu Brutus, War Story and others. Can’t dismiss here. Securitiz (4) has been ITM in 10 of 15 starts and faced Shaman’s Ghost and Turco Bravo in ’16. Back class here, too. I bet the 3 to win and then a solid 3-6 exacta box. I key the 3-6 over/under the 4-1-5 in another, as well.
4th: 6-9-5-4-2-10…Crazy About Jazz (6) gets my nod here, despite being gassed in her last sprint. She shortens up a bit today and may carry her speed a bit farther. Dreamy Margarita (9) gets the drop today and that should be enough to make this one very tough in here; likely PT favorite. Veil Dance (5) was beaten a neck in her last out and is a true closer. Don’t know if she has enough ground to get there or not, but the speed will set it up for her today. Don’t dismiss Mojo’s Queen (2). Been running very well in open company and may surprise at some odds in this one. I bet the 6 to win/place and then box the 6-9-5 in one exacta and then key the 6-9-5 over the 4-2-10 in another.
5th: 7-6-1-10-2-3…Smokin Platinum (7) nearly pulled off the upset at 7-1 odds in his first start here on July 28. Nipped in that one after making all the pace. Should benefit from that one and be ready for a repeat performance for a respected trainer. Sea Foam (6) is a first timer for Christophe Clement, who can get them ready off works alone. This one training well and bred to kick butt. Watch out. Looking Ready (1) was a beaten favorite in his career debut. Somebody liked him then. Experience should help today. I bet the 7 to win/place and then box the 7-6-1 in one exacta and key the 7-6-1 over the 10-2-3 in another.
6th: 1-4-3-7-6-5…Beasley (1) should whip this field on talent alone, but he is coming off a layoff since March for a trainer that does not fare well with this situation (.03 win percentage) and a trainer who is 0-for-16 this meeting. So…I still go with Beasley. He is good enough to carry 117 pounds and his trainer’s baggage, too. Ran second to the highly touted and talented Battalion Runner two back. Nobody in here has shown that kind of ability — as least not yet. Grumpelstiltskin (4) gets his first start for a new trainer, who does well with newbies to his barn (.26 win percentage). And, this one is training lights out. Watch out. Hard Scramble (3) spit the bit when he was saddled for the G2 Woody Stephens two back, but he came back with a solid performance here on July 21. Will need to pick it up again today, but has talent. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1-4 over/under all the other numbers listed. I take one 1-4 box.
7th: 1-10-6-2-4…Taperge (1) has never missed the board and is trained by Chad Brown. What more validation do you need? She gets a rider change and a stretch out to a career long distance today, but has been training well down South. Initiate (10) goes for Shug McGaughey, who has only 2 wins in 21 starts this meet. Not like him. Expect his runners to start showing up at the end of races, too. This one was nipped by a nostril in her last and will look for the lead early on. Warrior Hall (6) has faced some real good ones and should like this spot. Summer Luck (4) has been a huge under-achiever for the barn of Mark Casse. I don’t expect a lot of improvement today, but may hit the board. I bet the 1 to win/place/show and then key the 1-10 over/under all the rest. I take one 1-10 box, too.
8th: 1-2-5-9-7-3-10…The Union Avenue Stakes…Quezon (1) — my Best Bet of the Day — may give us three #1s in a row. This stalker has been running against real good ones — like By the Moon — in Graded Stakes races and in open company. She should air these from a good stalking position if Castellano stays awake on her. Hot City Girl (2) will press the pace from the inside for a top trainer and a solid rider switch to Jose Ortiz. Look out here at 6-1 ML odds. Clipthecouponannie (5) will get bet down from her 6-1 ML, IMO, but if you toss her last (when she lunged the gate at the start), then she figures to be right there, too. Will be hiding just off the pace. I bet the 1 to win/place and then box the 1-2-5 in one exacta and then key the 1-2-5 over/under the other numbers listed in another.
9th: 2-5-9-11-13…If the 11 & 13 get in this race, I have to use. They are the class on paper. If not, I go to Scatback (2), who faded after a nice try through half of her career debut. She was bet that day and had some excuses during the race. Joel Rosario is known for finding more trouble than it’s worth, but if he can steer her clear, she has a big shot in this one. Centr of the Stage (5) gets blinkers on for Rudy Rodriguez, and that is a good equipment move for this barn. May perk her up and she has had trouble in both of her previous starts. Straw Hat (9) is a first timer for a barn that does well with such. Keep an eye out for her in the paddock. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-5-9 in one exacta. Keep an eye out for the AE or the MTO.
Good Luck &
All the Best/Gene