Final Version: McLean’s Selections & Comments For KY Downs Opener — Wednesday, Aug. 29

(My oldest grandson, Ford, and I take a 1939 Penn Yan for a little row as June Carter keeps a watchful eye)

(Stats to be updated with the last two days of Ellis Park)

Here’s our looks at the first, amazing day of the Kentucky Downs’ 2024 meet, which will have record-size purses and beyond-measure field sizes, chalk full of class and run.

And…

Here’s hoping that we all can land a few winners along the way, in what has become one of the most challenging and, thus, rewarding handicapping meets of the year.

We’re off…

And, handicapping…

1st: 8-7-5/1-12/(14)-(15)-2-9/11-3-10-(16)…Ramsey Pond (8) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter to this year’s Kentucky Downs extravaganza, which will be highlighted by some of the most robust purses in the entire Thoroughbred racing world. This 2YO Divisidero filly will be making her 2nd career start. Began the proceedings on July 19 at Gulfstream Park. Just missed in that affair, running 2nd by a neck as the first-time starter and beaten favorite. Barn wins with .24% of the last 25 to make the 2nd career greats start and had a sharp work on Aug. 23 at Palm Meadows. Gets one of the best to ever ride this undulating grass course. Look out. Lucky Mama (7) goes for a trainer who wins with .33% on the 2nd grass race. This one move to the sod last time out and ran a very nice one, while stretching out to the route distance for the first time. May like a return to the sprint distance here. Taco Cat Backwards (5) gores for a barn that finished up the Ellis Park meet on fire. Upped the win rate to .20% after the first 805 starts this year. Solid grass rider takes the mount for the first time. Bred to love it here. I bet the 8-7 across the  board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 8-7 over/under the 5-1-12-14-15-2-9-11 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 8-2-3/6/9-7…I go back-to-back with the #8 to start the day and load up on my Upset Special of the Day — Purse Thief (8). This 2YO son of Caracaro has run three times in the campaign. Never been off the board. Moves to the grass for the first time here and that may deter some from loading up. But? The mare has thrown 3 grass winners from 10 starters and she has a Stakes Winner, too. Solid grass rider up. Sharp work on Aug. 18. Look out here at a nice price. Sexagenarian (2) won the debut race over the main track and at 5.5-furlongs on Aug. 5. that one was never in double. Ellis Park’s winningest rider for the meet takes the mount, again. Sharp work on Aug. 19. Rider has teamed up with trainer to go 2-0-1 in the last 4. Makeit to Cheyenne (3) is a helluva song and may be a good horse, too. Won the last out and was gelded after that one. Paco Lopez comes in to ride, and/or create controversy. Big shot here. I bet the 8 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 10-8/9-2/7/3/1-5…Tom Collins (10) is a popular adult beverage and this 3YO son of Frosted may be good with the public in this spot, too. This one has run in the money in two of the 4 lifetime starts. Last out was a learning experience. If he caught on to the new strategy techniques? Look out here. Has speed and can travel. HOF trainer picks up a top rider and this one did run 2nd to Agate Road at Saratoga in 2023. Back class. Creek (8) is my long-shot play of the race. This son of Ghostzapper has not been out in nearly a year, but picks up a new rider and, better yet, Lasix for the first time. Barn wins with .21% of the last 161 to get the anti-bleeder meds for the first time. I bet the 10 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 10-8 in the exactas. I will key the 10-8 over/under the 9-2-7-3-1-5 in two smaller versions. Much smaller . 

4th: 3-10-5/6-8-9/4/1…Sabalenka (3) has only bean to the gate once this year, and that was just a lack-luster 4th at Saratoga in early August. Went off at odds of nearly 30-to-1 in that one. But this 4YO daughter of Good Samaritan has raced over this surface twice in the career and has both a win and a second for the efforts. Gets one of the best to ever throw a leg over one here up in the saddle for the first time. Barn does OK with 2nd off the layoff and knows how to coach a sod horse, too. Threat at a solid price. Boss Lady Bailey (10) won the last time out at Saratoga and at 23-to-odds to boot. If you don’t go to the wedding, you shouldn’t go to the funeral. As they say. But this barn wins with .17% of those that won the last time out and a top grass rider takes the reins here, too. Chance. Pursuit of Liberty (5) comes from the barn of Brad Cox, and that should be all the credentials one needs to spike a threat. In 562 starts this year, the barn has won .25% of the time. Has won with .20% of 775 turf starters. Sharp work on Aug. 22. Look out here. Threat. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the execs. I will key the 3-5 over/under the 10-6-8-9-4 in two smaller units. 

5th: 9-(15)-(14)/8-10-(13)/2-11-(16)/1-3…Pepper Girl (9) goes for a highly under rated trainer and the rider can be one of the best, when the helmet is screwed on straight. This one had all kinds of bad luck and tough issues in the debut, and, still, nearly got up for third. Barn wins with .23% of the last 213 when shipping in. Top breeding on both sides of the family. I look for a big effort. If either the #15 or #14 get in, I have to use. If not? I go with the 9. I bet the 9 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 9-15-14 if those horses get in. If not, I will key the 9 over. under the 8-10-13-2-11-16 in the exactas. More with the 8-10-2 than the rest. 

6th: 1-3-7/8-10-11//2-4-6…Little Blaze (1) draws the rail in this turf sprint and that may work in this occasion, since this 6YO mare does possess a ton of speed numbers. Ran off to win by 15 last time out after being claimed two back for $20,000. Rail wins at a .19% rate. Son of HOF trainer takes the most for the dad. The one has hit the board in 5 of the last 6 outs. Love Mama Love (3) ships in from Florida for this one and the barn wins withy .24% when making the third start off the layoff. Sharp work on Aug. 23. Candy Lover (7) could spice up the odds rack here. Daughter of Twirling Candy brought $230,000 at the 2022 KEE September Yearling Sale. Has earned about half of that back and is still only 3. Only two grass starts show on the stat sheet. Hs a third to show for the efforts. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I key the 1 over/under the 3-7-8-10-11 in two smaller units. 

7th: 8-5/(14)-6-11/2-1-4-7-12/3-10…Rich City Girl (8) gets top-billing here. This 2YO daughter of City of Light is trained by one of the best in the game today, and he is winning at a .30% rate after 172 starts this year. On grass, this trainer wins with .27% of the last 51 to make the first start over the sod. When moving dirt to turf? Ban wins at a .31% rate. Dam of this one has already produced a turf winner. Look out. Lots to like. Lady Orient (5) comes from the barn of Tom Amoss, who is having another fantastic year. Pupils have won with .21% of 285 races this year and this one won on debut last time out at Ellis Park. Maiden grads win .19% of the time when facing other winners for the first time. Gets a top rider in the irons. Threat. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-5 in the exactas. I will key the 8-5 over/under the 14-6-11-2-1-4-7-12 in two smaller units. 

8th: 9-8/4-7-12/5/6//10/2-11-1…Bling (9) is the filly who I get the top number on after an exam at the numbers. After all, this daughter of American Pharoah has a 3-2-4 mark in 13 grass races. Blinkers go on and the barn wins with .6% of 36 over the last year when the shades are added. But? I will go with the horse just to the inside of Bling — Accomplished Girl (8). This one will make the first start for the new barn operation and they win with .16% of the last 100 to do that. Gets a new rider, too. In one previous try here, this one ran a solid 2nd. Beaten only a length. Has a shot here. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 9-8 in the exactas. I will key the 9-8 over/under the 4-7-12-5-6 in two smaller units. 

9th: 1-12-6/(13)-5-2-(14)/10-(16)-11-(15)…I go to the rail and load up on Moon Spun (1). This 3YO daughter of Hard Spun has never missed the board or been worse than 2nd in the first four career starts. Gets a new rider, who is know for his patience and strong finishes. Rode exceptionally well here last year. Trainer is highly under rated. Dam of this one has two turf winners from four starters and should love this spot. Sam’s Treasure (12) is the ML favorite and will get the blinkers off for the first time. Barn wins with .27% when losing the shades after the last 105 to do that. Will go from dirt to turf and the barn wins with only .15% of the last 72 to try that feat. Like the rider choice. Third time in a row up here. Has only one previous turf outing and that was a 2nd at Belmont Park last May. Don’t Say It (6) won when switching to the turf for the first time last out. Dam of this one was a Stakes winner and has now a turf winner from 4 starers. Rider is having a super year and just finished off a great meet at Ellis Park. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 picks ove3r/under the 5-2 in two smaller units. 

10th: 10-5-3/2-4-6-8/1-(13)/(14)/7-11…$500,000 Big Ass Fans Tapit Stakes…Chasing the Crown (10) looks best for me. This one is now a 5YO, but has a mark of 4-5-3 in 14 grass stars and has a tidy 2nd in only previous try here. That was last September in allowance company. Gets a rider who won on him just three starts ago. Jockey has another close 2nd on this one, too. At this distance, this one has gone 2-3 in 5 starts. One to beat. Fantastic Again (5) will pick up Frankie Dettori for this mount. He rode this one to a 2nd in the G1 Shoemaker on May 27. Winner of that one came right back to win next out, too. Will make first start over this interesting layout here. Has hit the board in the last 7. One to beat. Siege of Boston (3) is 8-1 in the ML and worth a shot, too. Loved this one last time out and ran a solid 2nd as the favorite at Ellis Park. Barnm wins with .28% when returning as a beaten favorite. That’s over the last 18. Trainer is very solid and knows turf racing as good as anybody in the game. Has hit the board in 13 of 17 over the grass. Chance. I bet the 5 — take note — to win/place/show and double down on the win wager. I will bet the 10 & 3 across the board. I will box the top numbers solidly. I will also key the top 3 over (only) the 2-4-6-8 in a smaller unit. 

11th: 1-12-(13)/8-(14)/5-6-11//3-4…The finale on Day 1 is a MSW event at 1-mile distance and I go back to the rail, again, and line up with Clock Tower (1). This 2YO gelded son of Not This Time has a third and a 2nd in the first two career starts. Could move up here with Jamie Spencer getting the mount. Barnm has won with .27% of 223 starts this year and the dam of this one is a Stakes winner. Works solid. Big shot here. Chapman’s Peak (12) is a first timer from the barn of Brad Cox. Home bred fore Godolphin and that means quality. Works are very good and the brewing top notch. Stakes winning dam has thrown two turf winners from 3 starters. Look out. I bet the 1-12 across the board and then double down on the win bet with the 12. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas and then I will key the 12 over/under the 1-13-8-14-5-6-11 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene