Days Picks 9 / 3-2-7
2024 Overall — 779 779 / 237-252-343
Win % of Top Pick 30.42%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 35.60%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 467-779 59.95%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD — 170-271 62.73%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 30-46 65.22%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 19-26 73.08%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 224-400 56.00%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ FG — 12-18 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ PIM — 6-9 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ Bel — 6-9 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — 92-271 33.95%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 12-46 26.09%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 8/26 30.77%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP — 110-400 27.50%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ FG — 8-18 44.44%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ PIM — 5-9 55.56%
2024 Only / Top Pick  Wins @ Bel — 2-9 22.22%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 10/5-4-1 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE — 2/2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP  — 39/ 13-10-6 33.33% Win / 74.36% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG — 1 / 0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD — 27/ 9-5-6 33.33% Win / 74.07%
2024 Ojnly / “Key Horses” @ Bel — 3/0-1-2 00.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 83/ 29-20-15 34.94% Win / 77.11% ITM

(Stats are close to being updated…soon)

Here’s our looks at the “extended” card for this last Friday of the Churchill Downs’ Spring / Summer Meet for 2024. Eleven races on the board for today. Here’s happy hunting:

1st: 1-7/2-5/8/4/3/6…Cathedral Beach (1) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Louis-Town on this kick-start to the final weekend of the Spring/Summer meet. This 5YO gelding has a tidy 6-2-1 record in 19 career starts, and has a win in 3 outs here. Will make the first start at this shorter distance. Will be coming late. Rider has won with .27% of the last 22 for this trainer. Captivating Boy (7) looks to be better on the AW than any other surface. All 3 career wins, to date, have been over the AW. Has recorded a 2nd and a 3rd in 3 starts on the traditional dirt. Chance. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the 1-7 in the exactas. I will key the 1-7 over/under the 2-5-8 in two smaller units.

2nd: 3-1/2/7…Mucho Mojo (3) was claimed just two starts ago and now drops to a career-low price tag here. Should fit nicely, although he has never won a race on the dirt or at this facility. Will come late for one of the best riders in the world. Welaka (1) won at this level just two starts ago and should love the return to face these kind. Chance. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 2-7 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 7-2/8-1-4/5/3/6…Highway Robber (7) goes for a highly underrated trainer, who is having a poor meet. Has won only 2 of 37 this meet. This one is coming off a win, though, and looks the best. Conversion to the turf was spot on. Cash Equity (2) nearly got the job done last time out, but came up a bit short. Nearly won the G2 Stakes at Del Mar in 2023. Trainer is winning at a .23% rate this year after 482 starts. I bet the 7 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 7-2 in one exacta and then key the 7-2 over/under the 8-1-4-5-3 in two smaller units. 

4th: 5-8-7/4/1/2/3-6…Miavana (5) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This daughter of Jimmy Creed will make her first start of the career and the barn only wins with .07% of those. But the dam of this filly has 1 winner from 3 starters and that one is a Stakes winner. Sharp work on June 18. Rider is having a solid meet. Chance. Especially at 10-1 ML odds. Waver (8) is a first timer for the barn of HOFer Steve Asmussen. This one was purchased by Winchell Thoroughbreds and has been working lights out. Rider has won with .19% of the last 36 for this barn. Delicate (7) was claimed the first time out and now shows up I’m the MSW company. Ran OK, despite multiple problems in the debut. Could improve with the change of riders here, too. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacts. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4-1 in two smaller units. 

5th: 8-9/2/1-4/7…Harrodsburg (8) was claimed last time out and now is the favorite in this one. Gets the same rider up and that should help with the continuity. Has won 2 in a row and 3 of 5 lifetime. Has never missed the board. Looks best for me. I bet the 8 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 8-9 in the exactas. I will key the 8 over/under the 9-2-1-4-7 in two smaller units. 

6th: 1-11/10-8/2-6-9…Roussette (1) drops from the MC $100,000 level all the way to the $30,000 price tag here. The 3YO gelding probably will get tagged here. Looks the best, too, off a near-miss 2nd against $50,000 level runners just two starts ago. Gets a rider who has made a name this Spring and looks like he could be tough with a better start. Needs to stay closer. Sagittarius (11) ran at this level the last three times. Had a 2nd three starts ago in the mud. Over fast dirt? Not so good. 0-0-0 in two starts. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 1-11 in the exactas. I will key the 1 over/under the 11-10-8-2-6-9 in two smaller units. 

7th: 10-2-6/1-5-11/12-8/9…Last Call (10) could spice up the odds board here, considering that the 4YO filly is 6-1 in the ML. Has run 12 times with just 1 win, but does have 3 seconds and 2 more thirds on the resume. Barn has won with .21% of the last 363 turf starts. Nice stat right there. Rider is 5-34-2 in the last 16 outs. Cecile (2) got a horrid trip last time out. New rider comes to town here. Should improve off that alone. Ran 3rd in a nice Stakes two starts back. Threat. Kodiac Wintergreen (6) picks up Lasix for the first time and that could benefit this one greatly. Barn only wins with .07% of the last 67 when getting the anti-bleeder for the first time. I bet the 10 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I key the 10 over/under the 2-6-1-5-11-12 in two smaller units. 

8th: 4-3/2-11-10/1-6/7…Black Dog (4) is a first time starter and the barn wins with .16% of those kind, over the last 161. Works are really good and a top rider takes the reins. Lots of things to like about this one. Connections spent $375K to purchase this one as a yearling. Atomic City (3) is another making the debut start. Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters and the works are very solid. I bet the 4-3 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 4-3 over/under the 2-11-10-1 in two smaller units. 

9th: 10-8-3/1/11-6/2-7…Zadorsky (10) will make the 2nd start for the young trainer, who wins with .17% of the last 12 to do that. Gets a hot rider, who is 9-3-5 in the last 30 tries. Coming off a troubled trip and should get a much better spot here. Beelieve Her (8) has hit the board in each of the last two and seems to be getting better and better. Trainer is having a solid meet and this filly has a win and a 2nd in two starts here. I bet the 10-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two smaller units. 

10th: 6/2/1-4/5/8//3-7-9…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes in the next to last race of the day and with Into Champagne (6). I loved this daughter of Into Mischief in the G1 KY Oaks, but she was never able to make the lead in that one. Picks up Lasix here and that is a big boost. Needs to break well and needs to go. If she can do that? Look out. I bet the 6 to win/place/show and then double/triple down on the win wager. I will key the 6 over/under the 2-1-4-5-8 in two smaller units. 

11th: 7-10-8/9-(13)/3-4-6…Soundbite (7) has run two 2nds to start the career and should be tough here for the best trainer in the game today. This one looks to be a stalker, and now moves to the grass — where the dam has produced two sod winners already. Should like the switch in surfaces. Barn wins with .31% when routing for the 2nd time, too. I bet the 7 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 7 over/under the 10-8-9-13 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene