Days Picks
2024 Overall — 466 466 / 131-144-191
Win % of Top Pick 28.11%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 33.33%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 269-467 57.60%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 14-22 63.64%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 19-26 73.08%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 224-400 56.00%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ FG — 12-18 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 5-22 22.73%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 8/26 30.77%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP — 110-400 27.50%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ FG — 8-18 44.44%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 4/2-2-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE — 2/2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP  39/ 13-10-6 33.33% Win / 74.36% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 1 / 0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 46/ 17-12-6 36.96% Win / 76.09% ITM

(Stats to be updated with this week’s activities)

Here’s our looks for Kentucky Oaks Day, which will feature the 150th running of the greatest 3YO filly race in the world. There are 13 races overall, with 7 Graded Stakes events on the massive and beautifully orchestrated card.

Here we go…

1st: 6-10-4/3//1-9…The ole’ lid-lifter is a 6.5-furlong sprint for the 3YO fillies in the MSW category. I line up with Thoughtful (6), a daughter of Gun Runner trained by the best in the land — Brad Cox. The sire wins with .16% on first ask and this one has a series of sharp works. Looks like she is sitting on go and the barn wins with .22% of those that debut in the MSW ranks. That’s with a sample size of 494. I’m in. Bellofthebluegrass (10) has run twice and has two runner-ups to show for the efforts. Could improve here. Sundance Feature (4) goes for one of the best young trainers in the game and owner Bruce Lunsford. Has speed and ran 2nd on debut. Very well bred and looks quick. I bet the 6-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 7-9-11/4-1/10-6-12/5-3…Befriended (7) is a daughter of Nyquist who ran well in the first attempt over the main dirt in the last outing. Runner-up came back to win, too. Another well-bred filly trained by Cox and has the ability to stalk or close. Look out here. Could be a star in the making. Sidamara (9) won the last time out to break the maiden. Came well off the pace to get the job done, but can stalk, too. Has run over the slop, if it comes up rainy. Sedona (11) cost $2 million at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton August Sale at Saratoga. Won the career opener. Gets a great rider here and has a huge shot, too. I bet the 7-11 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over (only) the 4-1 in a smaller unit. 

3rd: 5-8/3-7-10/2/1-6/11-12…Injunction (5) returns to the dirt where he is better suited, IMO. Has run here 7 times before with 2 wins and 3 runner-ups. Gets a big time rider for this occasion and should be running best at the end of it all. Arthur’s Ride (8) is a beautiful grey and gets the help of a HOF trainer. Has won the last two — which were nearly a year apart. Has speed and is a perfect 2-for-2 at this tough distance. One to beat, for sure. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 5-8 over/under the 3-7-10-2 in two smaller units. 

4th: 11-8-12/3/5/6-10/1-4-7-9-13…This is the first turf event scheduled for the day and if it stays on the sod, I will go with Freydis the Red (11). Has run here twice before and has a win. Overmatched in the G1 QE II to end the year and had a tough trip in this year’s opener. Should relish the drop in class here and has a sharp work on April 28. May be ready here. Barn wins with .19% on the second try off the layoff. School Dance (8) could upset the apple cart here. Has been facing tough competition on the Left Coast, but does have a sharp work here on April 27. Trainer is solid and picks up a really good grass rider. Chance at some odds. Make the Boys Wink (12) ran very well to end the 2023 year. Has run well off a break in the past, too. Has a 2-2-2 mark in 8 grass starts and is a perfect 1-for-1 here. Will be coming late. Look out at 8-1 ML odds. I bet the 11-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3-5 in two smaller units. 

5th: 4-5/6/7/2-3…G1 La Troienne Stakes…Here come the Stakes. Seven Graded events in a row. In this 11/16-mile event, I go strong with my top two picks. Idiomatic (4) is truly a super star mare. Daughter of Curlin has already won over $2.456 million. Has run this distance 4 times with 2 wins and 2 seconds. Has a win here, too. Won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff to end the 2023 year. Has speed galore. Look out. Pretty Mischievous (5) has 3 wins and a third in 4 starts here. Has a 3-2-1 record in 6 starts at the distance. Will come from off. But these two should lock up near the wire. Game on. I bet the 4 to win/place and box the 4-5 strong in the exactas. 

6th: 10-8/9-5/3-1/2/6…G3 Unbridled Sidney Stakes…This is a 5.5-furlong sprint on the sod for the fillies and mares and I go with Tony Ann (10). This one is a possible long shot, with 8-1 odds in the ML. Toss the last one, when she broke tardy and got swallowed up. Look at the G2 Franklin at KEE in October. Has the ability to stalk and run. Needs a good break. Ag Bullet (8) has never been on soft grass and that compromises this one a bit. But this one has shown real skill down the hill at Santa Anita. Has 4 wins in the last 5 outs. Worth including in exotics. I bet the 10 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 10 over/under the 8-9-5-3-1-2-6 in the exactas. More with the 8-9-5 than the rest. 

7th: 7-10-3/6/2-5/1/4…G2 Alysheba Stakes…Tapit Trice (7) returns to Louisville for the first time since running a troubled 7th in the 149th Kentucky Derby. Has not won since then, but has four wins in a row going into that event. Working lights out for a HOF trainer and gets a top rider up. Look for this one to strut. Trademark (10) has 4 wins and a second in 6 starts here. Loves it. Has 2 wins over an “off track,” too. Worth noting. First Mission (3) is a speedy type for the barn of Brad Cox and gets the trainer’s go-to rider up again. Won the G3 Essex to start this year by over 5. Take note. I bet the 7-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6 in two smaller units. 

8th: 4-6-10/9-12/8-2-11/5//7…G3 Modesty Stakes…This is a 11/8-mile turf test and here’s hoping the rains stay away. Heavenly Sunday (4) gets the nod here. Has a win here in only previous try. Can run on the lead and can finish the job, too. In 8 starts at this distance, has a 3-2-2 mark. Barn wins with .27% when gone from the gate this long. Surprisingly (6) ships in from Gulfstream Park, where she ran a solid 2nd in the G3 Orchid Stakes last out. Came late and nearly won, despite being in tight. Picks up a new rider who could help this one’s cause. A lot. Threat. Sparkle Blue (10) is a longer shot, but has a win this year and should be fit. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top two numbers — take note — over/under the 10-9-12-8-2 in two smaller units. 

9th: 7-1/12/9-6-3//2-10…G2 Eight Belles Stakes…This is a 7-furlong test of stamina and I lean in with Denim and Pearls (7), from the Brad Cox barn. Love this one. Love her. She just won the G2 Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland by over 9 lengths. Hard to repeat that kind of performance, but this gal is special. Truly. My Key Play of the Day. I will look to play hard. I be the 7 to win/place/show and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 7-1 in the exactas sternly. And, I will key the 7 over/under the 1-12-9-6-3 in two smaller units. 

10th: 4-9/8-10/1-5-12-13//11…G2 Edgewood Stakes…This is a 11/16-mile test over the sod and I go with Phillip Bauer’s Buchu (4). This 3YO daughter of Justify was highly touted in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last November. Got in serious trouble in that one and still got beat by only 23/4 lengths. Came back to win the G2 Appalachian Stakes at KEE to start the 2024 campaign over a soft ground. Look out here. Just look out. This one could be a superstar. Hard to Justify (9) should be the PT favorite and has never lost for the guru of American turf racing. Will make the 2024 debut here and the soft ground may play a role in fitness. Still, this one has to be beaten. I bet the 4 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 4-9 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 4-9 over/under the 8-10-1-5-12-13 in two smaller units. 

11th: 8-13-14/(16)-11-5-(15)/12/10//3…G1 Kentucky Oaks…I love  Tarifa (8). Trainer has conditioned some of the best fillies in our land over the past decade. This could be the next one. Has won 3 in a row and 4 of 5 lifetime. Can stalk and pounce with the best of them. Love the rider choice here. Fits perfectly. Only miscue on the scorecard happened over this track, though. Question? I don’t think so. This is home track and is working great. Just F Y I (13) is the 2HO Champ and was undefeated last year. Won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies for a HOF trainer. Started the year with a 2nd in the G1 Ashland. Needed that race a lot and will improve immensely off of it. Speed-favoring track got here there. Have to beat this one. Leslie’s Rose (14) may be a tad overrated here. Got the jump on a speed track in Lexington. I’ll try to beat here. Power Squeeze (12) is my Upset Play of the Day. Don’t know if the 12-1 long shot can win, but can hit the board. Has won 4 in a row and has ability. I bet the 8 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 8-13-12 in the exactas. Take note. And, I will key the 8-12 over/under the 13-14-16-11-5-15-10 in two smaller units. I will key the 8-13-12 in the Oaks-Derby double with Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Resilience, Just a Touch, Domestic Product and Encino.

12th: 11-7/3-1-8/4-6/5/2-9-12…This is a 6.5 furlong sprint for the 3YO fillies and I line up with Almostgone Rocket (11). Another from the Brad Cox barn. Could have a huge day. Won the opener by over 11 at Oaklawn Park. Daughter of Into Mischief could be a superstar in the making, too. I’m all in. I bet the 11 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 11-7 in the exactas. And, I will key the 11 over/under the 7-3-1-8-4-6 in two smaller units.

13th: 8-7-6/2-14-13-(15)/3-11-1/12-4-10…The day’s finale is a 1 mile test for the MSW ranks and 3YO fillies. I go with another from the barn of Phillip Bauer — Princess Madison (8). Nearly won the debut in Lex and was “blocked” that day. Seriously. Take a look at the video. No shot to get through. If she runs that same race? Look out. I bet the 8 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I box the 8-7-6 in the exactas. And, I will key the 8 over/under the 7-6-2-14-13-15-3 in two smaller units. 

Whew. Bring on the Derby.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene