Days Picks 11 / 1-5-3
2024 Overall — 562 562 / 165-175-236
Win % of Top Pick 29.36%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 34.16%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 327-562 58.19%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD — 58-96 60.42%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 14-22 63.64%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 19-26 73.08%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 224-400 56.00%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ FG — 12-18 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — 34-96 35.42%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 5-22 22.73%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 8/26 30.77%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP — 110-400 27.50%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ FG — 8-18 44.44%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 4/2-2-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE — 2/2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP  39/ 13-10-6 33.33% Win / 74.36% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 1 / 0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 5 / 1-0-0 20.00% Win / 20.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 51/ 18-12-6 35.29% Win / 70.59% ITM

(Picks need to be updated)

Here’s our looks at the Friday kickstart to a massive weekend at the big oval in Louis-Town. And, it’s a nice card, too. Get your handicapping kicks on. Time to go to town.

1st: 2-5-6/3/8-1-4-7…Citizen Judy (2) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval on Friday afternoon. This 2YO daughter of American Freedom has a race under her girth, unlike many of the first timers in here. Ran well, too. Was 2nd, although she gave it up pretty good at the end of 4.5-furlongs. That was in the slop at KEE, though, and she may prefer a dry surface better. Veteran rider is having a very solid meet. Look for this one to press the pace. Addera (5) is a first timer for a HOF trainer, who wins with .13% of the last 754 to go on first ask. Gets the son in the saddle and they have teamed up to win .14% of the last 133, too. Works are very good. Contender. Salted (6) could be the one to beat, if in another barn. Trainer is 2-for-27 here this meet and that’s after a poor winter at Turfway, too. Connections paid $760,000 for this one. and has the breeding to be a tremendous race filly and, eventually, a broodmare. But? Has to win. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 3 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 3-2-1/6-4/5-9-(14)/(13)-8-12…Retail Therapy (3) is a filly who I thought about claiming last time out, when she ran a very good second, after making a tough lead in the slop. Now, she drops to $20,000 and I would think there may be a lot of suitors at the claim window this time around. If she runs the same race back? Look out. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-4 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 4-7/5-3/1/2-6-8…She’s Cool (4) will drop into the claiming ranks for the first time and this barn wins with only .05% of the last 22 to do that. But this one has run so well this Spring, she warrants a serious look here. Rider is warming up and the addition of Lasix has helped, no doubt. Could be a serious runner here, with a bit of a “Z” pattern working from the last two races. Meaning? Finished strong two starts ago. Flashed speed the last time. May be sitting on a good one here. I bet the 4 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 4-7 in the exactas. I will key the 4-7 over/under the 5-3-1 in two smaller units. 

4th: 3-2/7/4-5/6/1…Halina’s Forte (3) drops out of two straight Graded Stakes and picks Lasix back up for this effort. She has tremendous speed options and the trainer is better than most give credit. Super job with a private stable. Should be a tough out in this spot. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 3-2 in the exactas. I will also key the 3-2 over/under the 7 in two smaller units. 

5th: 4-6/2-9-7//8-5-3…Expensive Cut (4) is my “Upset Play of the Day.” This one is listed at 10-1 in the ML and will be making the third start for the new barn since being claimed for $40,000 late last year. Has gotten better since the first start and is fresh off the layoff. Barn is 2-1-1 in 8 starts this meet. Look out here. Perfect Flight (6) is a son of Uncle Mo and is coming into this one off a near-miss 2nd at Oaklawn Park last time out. Trainer is 0-for-13 this meet, but gets one of the best riders in the jockey’s room to take the reins here. Should help. I bet the 4-6 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 4-6 over/under the 2-9-7 in two smaller units. 

6th: 4-(15)-10/11/6-7-12/3-5-(13)-9…This is the first grass race of the day, and it will be contested at 1 mile for the allowance ranks. I go with Depiction (4). this 3YO son of More Than Ready will get Lasix for the first time and that should be an immense help for a top trainer, who is winning at an .18% clip this meet. And, that is tough to do here. Rider is the best in the land, and he is winning at only a .19% rate. Tough sledding here, these days. Has 5 grass starts with a win and a third. Comes out of a G3 Stakes and should appreciate the class drop. All in here for me. I bet the 4 across the board and then double down on the win wager, even though he will face older horses for the first time. I will box the top 3 selections, no matter if the 15 draws in or not. I go 4-15-10 or 4-10-11. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the next five. That means the 4-15 over/under the 10-11-6-7-12 or the 4-10 over/under the 11-6-7-12. Got it? I may be confused. LOL. 

7th: 1/2-7/4-8//3-5-6…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Everso Mischievous (1). This one is even money in the ML, so not a huge surprise. But the 4YO son of Into Mischief will be making the 2024 debut and is coming off a dismal effort inn the G2 Cigar Mile over a muddy track on Dec. 2. But? This one is 4-2-0 in 7 lifetime tries for the best trainer in the game today. Gets one of the best rides around. And, is training like a fighter. Barn wins with .32% of the last 377 that return to the gate as a beaten favorite, and with .28% of the last 326 to be away this long. Barn is 9-11-7 in 42 starts this meet. That is spectacular considering the competition here right now. All. In. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1 over/under the 2-7-4-8 in the exactas. I will try another win bet or two on the 1, as well. 

8th: 12-3/6-9-10/(14)-(13)/4-5/2-8…The last grass race of the day and this one will go 11/8-miles around the sod for the high-priced optional claimers. I go to the outside and line up with Noises Off (12). this 4YO gelded son of Candy Ride goes for one of the hottest trainers on the earth, winning at a .29% rate here this meet. Has gone 2-0-0 in the last 3 outs here. Picks up a solid rider, who coached this one to a nice 3rd at KEE last time out when coming off a layoff. Blinkers come off here and the barn wins with .18% of the last 11 to do that. Has hit the board in 3 of 5 lifetime on the grass. My pick. I bet the 12 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 12-3 in the exactas. Stearnly. I will key the 12-3 over/under the 6-9-10-4-5 in two smaller units. 

9th: 9-1-5/6-8/3-7…The day’s finale is a 11/16-mile test over the main dirt track and I go with Sir Greylind (9). The #9 in the 9th race. Can’t go wrong, right? I hope so. This 3YO gelding comes in after two very nice efforts to start the career. Won at first ask at KEE with ease and came right  back to post a solid 2nd in the first try against winners. Returns here as a beaten favorite and this barn wins with .22% of those kind. Will stretch out to the two turns for the first time. Barn wins with .06% of the last 18 to do that. Concern. Who’s the King (1) improved dramatically after being claimed in Florida on Feb. 25. Remarkable move up to win by over 7 the next time out for Saffie Joseph, Jr. Hmmmm. Will be interesting to see if that progression continues. I’m Your Man (5) is a 3YO, whom I really like. Won the career opener here last November. Rider that day returns this day. The only “poor race” was in the slop at Oaklawn, and still this one battled on to be 5th. Deep closer should be ready at a price here. And, this trainer knows how to win. I bet the 9-5 across the board and then double down on the across the board wager on the 5. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6-8 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene