Final Version With Comments: McLean’s Selections for Churchill Downs on Kentucky Oaks Day — Friday, May 2

(Good Cheer / Photos by Holly M. Smith)

(Stats to be updated)

Here’s our looks for Kentucky Oaks Day — the second-best day of racing in the entire year:

1st: 4-1/3/9/5…Chasten (4) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on this 151st Kentucky Oaks Day celebration of the lillies and the ladies. This daughter of Into Mischief has 2 races under the girth, so far, and has an impressive win and a hard-fought 2nd in the Silverbulletday Stakes at the Fair Grounds. A couple of Kentucky Oaks contenders were in that affair. This one is trained by Brad Cox, who is one of the best conditioners of fillies in our generation. This gal is a good stalker/closer type who will get Lasix for the first time, too. Barn wins with .31% of the last 232 to get the anti-bleeder medication for the first time. Looks solid here, to me. I bet the 4 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 4-1 in the exactas. Sternly. I will key the 4-1 over/under the 3-9-5 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 4-9-10/5-1-3/8-7-2-11/6…Defiant Lass (4) is still looking for win #1, but comes into this one well advertised. Ran 3rd on debut at KEE in October and then was 2nd over the same track just a few weeks ago. Now, this one stays home for this affair. Barn wins with .14% when routing for the first time. Salted (9) has hit the board in 4 of 5 lifetime starts. Has caught a couple of “off tracks” in those starts and nearly won over one of them. Experience on the wet stuff. Raghba (10) is 6-1 in the ML and has a real shot here for trainer Todd Pletcher. Blinkers go on for the first time and that may be the key. Barn wins with .19% of the last 138 to add the shades. I bet the 10 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top three in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 5-1-3 in two shorter units. 

3rd: 12-6-11/10-2-3-1/(15)…Moon Channel (12) made a huge move late to get 2nd in the first start at KEE on April 13. This one gets a better start this time around and he could be sailing at the wire time. Florent Geroux returns for the 2nd try. World Beater (6) has run two good ones in a row after being treated with Lasix and moving to the sod. Should be a threat at the wire here, too. Sire line is proven on the sod. Vivaldi (11) goes for trainer Chad Brown. Ran a good one after an extended layoff with the addition of Lasix, too. Gets a huge rider switch for this one. Big shot. I bet the 12-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 12-6 over/under the 11-10-2-3-1 in two smaller units.

4th: 7-10/3/4-5-9/1-2…Beauty Reigns (7) has been blanked since winning the career debut last November. But this daughter of Into Mischief looked renewed in the last one at KEE on April 7. Junior Alvarado gets the mount back and should improve the chances. Like this one. Foie Gras (10) could offer a solid return here if she can turn in a good effort. Has a win over this track. Beat Verity in that one and she has turned out to be pretty darn good. See the PPs later today. I think this gal may be ready for a big one. I bet the 10 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the 7-10 in the exactas. I will key those two over/under the 3-4-5-9 in two smaller units. 

5th: 5-2/8-7-6/4-1…G2 Edgewood Stakes…Nitrogen (5) was a huge and easy winner the last time out in the G2 Appalachian Stakes at KEE. That was the 3rd win in a row. This one may be headed for stardom. But? This one may bounce off that effort over the “good” sod at KEE. If she does, look for Vixen (2) to pick up the slack. This one ran behind the #1 pick the last time out, but had two wins in a row before that one, too. Gets Irad back up here. I bet the 2 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the 5-2 in the exactas. I key the 5-2 over/under the 8-7-6 in two smaller units.

6th: 4-2/3/5//1-6…G2 Alysheba Stakes…Fierceness (4) should be and will be the prohibitive favorite in this spot. After all, the son of City of Light did win the G1 Travers and ran 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Classic to end the 2024 racing season. Not bad. But? But this one was a huge disappointment as the PT favorite I’m the 150th Kentucky Derby. Ran for 1/2 before spitting the bit. Horses remember. And, there are horses not for certain courses, too. So? WELL…Locked (2) is coming off a huge win in the Santa Anita Handicap on March 1. Looked invincible that day and now comes back East. But? the across-country trip and the big effort may take a bit out of this one, too. So? WELL…I really love Hall of Fame (3) in this spot. Love the 4-1 odds, too. Look at this one and he has a win and a second in just two trips here. Has run 4 top races in a row after getting Lasix. The only time on the anti-bleeder before those 4? Won the MSW by over 10 lengths. I’m all in here. All in. I bet the 3 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I will key the 3 over/under the 4-2-5 in two other exotics.

7th: 2/5-4-7/1-6…G1 La Troienne Stakes…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Thorpedo Anna (2). Or does it? The 2024 Horse of the Year and the winner of the 2024 Kentucky Oaks is coming in off a run-away win in the G1 Apple Blossom Stakes and the G2 Azeri Stakes to start this campaign. Should be ready to claim her rightful spot here, too. After all, she is 2-1-0 in 3 starts here. But? Randomized (5) has a ton of speed and you can toss the last race of 2024, when well-beaten in the G1 Personal Ensign. Stumbled badly in that one before streaking to the top. Tired and then retired for the rest of the year in August. Now, she’s back. And, training lights out here. Look for this gal to be tough to catch in the stretch. But? The top two contenders may suck the life out of each other and set it up perfectly for Raging Sea (4). This daughter of Curlin will coming running late and she just may be able to get to “The Champ” if the early fractions are salty enough to launch an upset. I will be trying the upset. I bet the 4 across the board — take note — and double down on the win bet. I will box the 2-4-7 in the exotics. I will key the 2-4 over/under the 5-7-1-6 in two smaller units. 

8th: 7-3/8/1-2-4…G3 Modesty Stakes…This is a 11/8th route over the sod and I will give the check to She Feels Pretty (7). This is another big favorite, but this is one I will stand by. Has not been out since last December, but is training lights out and in 8 lifetime tries over the sod, this one has a 5-1-2 record. Nice. Will make the grass debut here. But looks for a powerful stalking trip. I am. I bet the 7 across the board and then box the 7-3 in the exactas. I will key those two numbers over/under the 8 in two smaller units.

9th: 12-5-10/6/11-9/2/3…G2 Eight Belles Stakes…Eclatant (12) didn’t get the best of draws for trainer Brad Cox, but this gal may have the ability to overcome all. Including this post. The daughter of Into Mischief has won 3 of 4 lifetime and the only loss came to roommate and undefeated Good Cheer — the heavy favorite for today’s G1 KY Oaks. I go big here. Verity (5) is well bred, homebred for the Godolphin Stables connections. Could be a huge weekend for this operation. Huge. This gal has 3 wins in a row and one over the slop at KEE. Has a 2nd here in the career debut. Talented. Impulse Buy (10) has not run since winning the Fern Creek Stakes over this track last November. Will close. Will stalk. Will try. I bet the 12-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key those 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units. 

10th: 4/3/5-1-7-9/2…G3 Unbridled Sydney Stakes…Ag Bullet (4) is the ML favorite and could be odds-on by post time. But? But this one is that good that you can bet and play even at low odds. This gal is a single in the horizontal plays and the exactas, as well. I bet her to win/place. Strong. I key her over/under the 3-5-1-7-9-2 in the exactas. More with the 3 than the others. I go strong here. 

11th: 11-10-5/6-7-9/13-14/2-8/3-1…G1 Kentucky Oaks…The 151st version of this huge race for the best 3YO fillies in all the land. I go with the undefeated champ — Good Cheer (11). This is another one for Godolphin and she is a perfect 6-for-6 going into the 11/8-mile mega race. Has never truly been challenged. Has never won by less than 21/2 lengths. In 3 tries here? Has 3 wins. Will stalk the speed here and pounce. Likely to run off like Monomoy Girl did for trainer Brad Cox several years ago. This gal can run. Take Charge Milady (10) ran very well in the G1 Ashland. I think her run was truly the most impressive against a speedster on a speed-favoring track. This gale has the final kick to be successful against most other 3YO fillies. Just so happens, though, that Good Cheer is not any other 3YO filly. Quickick (5) is 30-1 in the ML and is coming off three straight showings that has rendered just one 3rd. But? This gal is talented and the best closer in the race. Tom Amoss has won this race before. May be able to score a big longshot price here. Ballerina d’Oro (6) is a beautiful grey and is coming in off a win. Will need some help to get up in the end. But may pick up the pieces late. La Cara (7) is one of the speedsters who is surely to ensure a fast pace. Won the G1 Ashland with a gate-to-wire win job. But? Can the speed really hold in this one. I don’t think so. I bet the 11-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-7-9 in two smaller units. I will also key the 11 over/under the “all button,” as well. 

12th: 10-7/5-6-2-8/9-11-12-4…

13th: 10-8/2-3/1-12/6-9/7-13…

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene