2026 Statistics:

Days Picks 10 / 2-5-1
2026 Overall — 397 397 / 129-132-155
Win % of Top Pick 32.49%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 34.93%
2026 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 230-397 57.93%
2026 Top Pick in the Money @ TP Winter — 214-370 57.84%
2026 Top Pick in the Money @ OP — 2-6 33.33%
2026 Top Pick in the Money @ Tampa Bay — 5-8 62.50%
2026 Top Pick in the Money @ Fair Grounds — 8-12 66.67%
2026 Top Pick in the Money @ Gulfstream Park — 1-1 100.00%
2026 Top Pick Wins @ TP Winter — 116-370 31.35%
2026 Top Pick Wins @ OP — 2-6 33.33%
2026 Top Pick Wins @ Tampa Bay — 3-8 37.50%
2026 Top Pick Wins @ Fair Grounds — 7-12 58.33%
2026 Top Pick Wins @ Gulfstream Park — 1-1 100.00%
2026 “Key Horses” @ TP Winter — 20/6-2-4 30.00% Win / 60.00% ITM
2026 “Key Horses” @ OP — 0/0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2026 “Key Horses” @ Tampa Bay — 0/0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2026 “Key Horses” @ Fair Grounds — 4/3-0-0 75.00% Win / 75.00% ITM
2026 “Key Horses” @ Gulfstream Park — 1/1-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2026 “Key Horses” Overall — 25/10-2-4 40.00% Win / 64.00% ITM

Churchill Downs Picks for Saturday

A B C D
1 3-4-5 1-2 6 xxxx
2 3-7 2-5 4-9 xxxx
3 5-7-6 1 4-3 2
4 4-7 1 9-6-2 xxxx
5 4-2 3 7-5-1 6-8
6 10-4-3 5 1-11-13-15 xxxx
7 10-9 5-6-7 3-2 xxxx
8 4-10-9 11-6 2-12-5 7-8
9 10-9 12-11-7 2 4
10 5-2-10 8 4-6-7 xxxx
11 3-2 4-8-7 9-5 6-10

Churchill Downs Betting Strategies: 

Betting Strategy
1 I bet 3-4WPS / Box 3-4-5 / Key 3-4-5 o/u 1-2
2 I bet 3-7 WPS / Box 3-7 / Key 3-7 o/u 2-5-4-9
3 I bet 5 WPS / Box 5-7-6 / Key 5-7-6 o/u 1
4 I bet 4 WPS / Double Down on Win / Box 4-7 / Key 4-7 o/u 1
5 I bet 4 WPS / Double Down on Win / Box 4-2 / Key 4 o/u 2-3-7-5-1
6 I bet 10 WPS / Box 10-4-3 / Key 10-4-3 o/u 5
7 I bet 10 WPS / Double Down on Win / Box 10-9 / Key 10 o/u 9-5-6-7
8 I bet 4 WPS / Double Down on Win / Box 4-10-9 / Key 4 o/u 10-9-11-6
9 I bet 10 WP / Box 10-9 / Key 10-9 o/u 12-11-7
10 I bet 5-2 WPS / Box 5-2-10 / Key 5-2-10 o/u 8
11 I bet 3-2 WPS / Box 3-2 / Key 3-2 o/u 4-8-7-9-5

Churchill Downs Comments:

Comments
1 3 Is 9-5 ML Fav / 0-for-6 at CD / Ugh /
2 3 Drops in Class / Barn Wins .18% in CLM Ranks
3 5 Has Best Dirt Speed Of All Today
4 4 Is 10-1 ML / Upset Special of Day / Barn Wins .20% With Drop
5 4 Goes For Trainer Who Wins .33% With Claim Repeat
6 Barn Wins .23% in 3rd Off Layoff / Drops in Class Here
7 10 Ran 3rd vs Similar in Only Start / Hot Trainer
8 4 Goes For Barn That Wins .23% With Beaten Favs / Sharp Work
9 10 Is Best Horse In Race / Bar None
10 5 Loves It Here / 5 Starts = 2 Wins & 2 2nds / Shorter May Help
11 3 Ran 2nd Last Out / Sharp Work on 5-31 / Like Rider