Days Picks 11 / 1-5-3
2024 Overall — 562 562 / 165-175-236
Win % of Top Pick 29.36%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 34.16%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 327-562 58.19%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD — 58-96 60.42%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 14-22 63.64%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 19-26 73.08%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 224-400 56.00%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ FG — 12-18 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — 34-96 35.42%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 5-22 22.73%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 8/26 30.77%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP — 110-400 27.50%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ FG — 8-18 44.44%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 4/2-2-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE — 2/2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP  39/ 13-10-6 33.33% Win / 74.36% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 1 / 0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 5 / 1-0-0 20.00% Win / 20.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 51/ 18-12-6 35.29% Win / 70.59% ITM

(Stats to be updated from Thursday and Friday action)

Here’s our looks at the “Downs After Dark” program slated for this Saturday evening at the big oval in Louis-Town:

1st: 2-1/5-7/6/3-4…Dedos (2) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the “Downs After Dark” program this evening at the big oval in Louis-Town. This 2YO filly will face some colts in here, but that has never bothered this barn operator in the past. This one is bred and owned by the trainer, too, and that makes her even more dangerous. Working very well and the the sire hits with .31% of first time starters. Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters. Barn wins with .32% when debuting in the MCL ranks, as well. Lots to like here. I bet the 2 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-1 in the exactas and then I will key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed in two smaller units. 

2nd: 2/6-7-3/10/(13)/4-12-(14)-(16)/5-8-(15)…The first Key Play of the Day comes here, if you don’t count my single play in the first. And, I go with another deuce in here with Green Light (2). This 3YO son of Hard Spun ran a huge 2nd in the last out at KEE. Could have won that one with a little better trip and not a 4-wide move at the top. Gets a rider who has earned a great reputation, but is winning with only .10% of the first 67 rides this meet. Hmmm. Still, the trainer wins with .31% when routing for the 2nd time, too. I’m all in here. I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will key the 2 over/under the 6-7-3-10-13-4-12 in the exactas. More with the 6-7-3-10 than the rest. Hope this stays on the sod. All bets off, if moved to the main dirt track.

3rd: 1-6/3/2-4/5…Rock Star Doctor (1) won the last time out and it’s never easy to go back-to-back. But this trainer wins with .33% when trying to repeat in the claiming ranks. Trainer has heated up after a terrible Turfway Park Meet. Has gone 5-1-0 in the last 14. Sharp work on May 11. Rider is winning at a .05% rate. Ugh. But I stick with the horse. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the 1-6 in the exactas. I will key the 1-6 over/under the 3-2-4-5 in two smaller units. 

4th: 1/2-4-3/5/6…Another Key Play of the Day comes here with the rail bird — Disarm (1). This 4YO son of Gun Runner is destined for the breeding shed soon, but congrats to Winchell Thoroughbreds for keeping this one in training. Nearly won the G1 Travers at Saratoga to end the 2023 campaign. Before that, did win the G3 Matt Winn here and was a major 4th in the G1 KY Derby before that. Has won over $1 million in purses already. Hope this one sticks all year and ends up in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. I bet the 1 to win/place and then key the 1 over/under the 2-4-3-5-6 in the exactas. More with the 2-4-3 than the rest. 

5th: 2-4/6-5/8/7-1-3…Fan the Fire (2) is another inside presence that I like early on the card this night. This 5YO gelded son of Hard Spun has raced here 3 previous times. Has a win and a third. Won last time out here, too, at the $20,000 level. Bumps up in class and dollars, too, which is never easy to do. But the barn wins with .25% when trying to repeat in the claiming ranks. Does go from a route distance to a sprint, but this one has flashed speed going long. Will stalk and close at this distance, most likely. Rider has a win and a 2nd in two mounts on this one. I bet the 2 across the board and then box the 2-4 in the exactas. I will key the 2-4 over/under the 6-5-8-7 in two smaller units. 

6th: 5-6-(13)/7-9-(14)/4/1/10-11…Active Duty (5) is still looking to break the maiden after 12 starts. Does have 4 seconds and 2 more thirds on the resume, but must find a way to get in front at wire time. Drop in class should help and the new rider is a strong finisher. Let’s see. Admiral Hall (6) is my Upset Special of the Day. This one is listed at 12-1 in the ML and should stay rather high on the odds board, what with the apprentice taking the reins on this first time starter. Works are great. Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters. I’m trying. I bet the 6 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 5-6-13 in one set of exactas. I will key the 5-6 over/under the 13-7-9-14-4-1 in two smaller units.

7th: 8/9-1/10//2-6/3-5-7…G3 Louisville Stakes…My next Key Play of the Day comes here with Bold Act (8), who will be another heavy, heavy favorite. This 4YO gelding ran a huge 3rd in the G2 Elkhorn Stakes after shipping in this Spring from Dubai. Winner of that race came right back to win again. New rider knows how to ride the sod, and this one is a G2 winner in the UAE and a G3 winner in the U.S. Will be closing and will need a good trip, but this one has plenty of experience over the soft going. I bet the 8 to win/place and then key the 8 over/under the 9-1-10 in the exactas. 

8th: 9-1/4/3-5-8/6/2…O P Firecracker (9) drew outside in this field, but that should not hurt this closing type. Has run here 9 times with a modest 1-1-1 mark. But this one is dropping out of Stakes company into a mid-major claiming event. That should speed this one up the most. Young trainer is talented and ready to make a mark in KY. Look out for this one. Fifty Cent Dollars (1) is another from the same barn and this one will make the debut for the new connections. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and this trainer wins with .22% of the last 9 to do that. Chance. I bet the 9-1 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 9-1 over/under the 4-3-5-8-6 in two smaller units. 

9th: 5-1-3/4/6-7-2/8…Huntress for Hire (5) has not been out since last September, but the barn does win with .14% of the last 84 to be away from the gate for 90+ days. Broke the MSW here last May. Looks to have talent, but needs to stay in training this time around. Marmalade Skye (1) has gone 1-2-2 in the first 6 starts and that spells consistency and talent, too. Should be right there on the lead from the get. Motown Dynamic (3) is a possibility, as well. Broke the MSW just two starts ago at Oaklawn Park. This one has speed galore and could be a threat if left alone on the front. I bet the 5 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will also box the top 3 numbers in the exactas, and I will key the top 3 over/under the 4 as well.

10th: (16)-(15)/3/10-4-8/9/1-6-7/5-11-12…This is scheduled to be a 1-mile event over the Churchill Downs’ sod, but if it comes off and is moved to the main track, this race will set up nicely for Extra Anejo (16). This son of Into Mischief ran 4th in the G1 Haskell to end last season. But this one broke the MSW at first asking in October of 2022. Won that one by nearly 10 lengths. If the race is not moved off the sod, I am firmly convicted here, too. I will load up — rather significantly — and bet Gray’s Fable (3). Veteran 9YO son of Gio Ponti has a right to improve in the 2nd start off the layoff (trainer wins with .18% of the last 151 to do that), and has gone 6-5-2 in the 31 turf races going on the stat sheet. Will come from behind. If he gets the trip? Look out. I bet the 16 if it comes off the sod. I bet the 3 if it stays on. I will bet the win/place/show and then key over/under the 15-3-10-4-8-9 in the exactas. I bet the 3 if it stays “on the turf.” I will bet across the board and key with the 10-4-8-9-1-6-7 in the exactas. 

11th: 1-8/5/3-6/4/7…The night’s finale has a projected post time of 11:10 p.m. Ouch. That is going to hurt a few people. I go with Alicit Intention (10). This 3YO Mitole filly has started 3 times with 3 thirds on the books. Last time out at KEE, only lost by 1/2-length. Getting better. Getting closer. Mischievousness (8) has hit the board in half of her career 6 starts, to date. Trainer is excellent and this one returns as a beaten favorite. Can stalk. Can finish. Will be interesting at wire time. I bet the 1-8 across the board and then box them in the exactas. I will key the 1-8 over/under the 5-3-6 in two smaller units

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene