Days Picks 11 / 1-5-3
2024 Overall — 562 562 / 165-175-236
Win % of Top Pick 29.36%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 34.16%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 327-562 58.19%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD — 58-96 60.42%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 14-22 63.64%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 19-26 73.08%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 224-400 56.00%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ FG — 12-18 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — 34-96 35.42%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 5-22 22.73%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 8/26 30.77%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP — 110-400 27.50%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ FG — 8-18 44.44%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 4/2-2-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE — 2/2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP  39/ 13-10-6 33.33% Win / 74.36% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 1 / 0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 5 / 1-0-0 20.00% Win / 20.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 51/ 18-12-6 35.29% Win / 70.59% ITM

(All stats are now updated)

Here’s our looks at the Thursday “Twilight” card at the big oval in Louis-Town, as we kick start the countdown to the Preakness Stakes and the 2nd jewel of this year’s Triple Crown on Saturday:

1st: 3-4-1/2/5-6…Donkissdaminister (3) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval on this Thursday eve. This 4YO Florida-bred has never raced here before, and that’s not a positive. But this one has hit the board in the last 4 — with 2 wins and 2 runner-ups. Gets a chilly rider, but knows his way around these parts. Barn wins with .18% of the last 102 when shipping. Sant’ Antimo (4) drops two class positions here and the barn wins with .19% of the last 16 to do that. Has run here three times before with a 2nd, and has the best dirt speed numbers in the race. Looms large here. Legendary Lore (1) goes for a barn that is red hot, winning at a .26% rate so far this meet after the first 31 starts. Gets the trainer’s son in the saddle and he has been right there for each of the last 6 starts of the career. May be ready. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 2 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 2-4/6/3-8-1…Empress Julia (2) is the only filly runnings against the “boys,” here, but that’s no excuse for this barn — which is now the top training barn in the Commonwealth when it comes to the “babies.” This daughter of Uncle Mo is a homebred for Three Chimney’s Farm and comes into this one off a very sharp work on May 4. Dam has a winner from one starter and the rider has teamed up to go 2-for-2 with the trainer. Lots to like here. I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-4 in the exactas. Sternly. I key the 2-4 over (only) the 6-3-8-1 in another version. 

3rd: 5-2/1-3-6//4…Go West (5) is another that comes from the barn of HOFer Steve Asmussen. This 6YO son of Street Sense had never won here before, with only one third in 3 previous tries. But the layoff could help and the barn wins with .19% of the last 1,330 to be away from the gate this long. Son is up and he’s having success for the Family, with 3-1-1 mark in the last 11 mounts for the trainer/dad. Like. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-2 in the exactas. I will key the 5-2 over/under the 1-3-6 in two smaller units. 

4th: 8-10/3-12-2/4-(14)-(16)/7/9-1-6…The first grass race of the day will be contested at the distance of 5 furlongs and I line up with Twirl Around (8), who hails from the barn of Greg Foley. This is a homebred for the Donamire Farm of Lex, KY and comes in off two 2nds in a row. Has some nice stalking speed and should carve out a nice trip over the new sod here. Look out. I bet the 8 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 8-10 in the exactas. I will key the 8-10 over/under the 3-12-2-4-14-16-7 in two smaller units.

5th: 2-5-3/1/4-6…Theroanrunner (2) looks sharp coming in for trainer Joe Sharp. Has hit the board in each of the last two outs and has a real nice sharpener at KEE to tighten the blades here. Gets a new rider up and he’s heating up, too. May improve with the cutback in distance to 6.5-furlongs here. Barn wins with .18% of the last 241 in the claiming ranks. Musical Prayer (5) won the last time out to break the MSW. In two previous tries here? Has a 2nd and a 3rd. Look out here with a clean trip. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 1 in two smaller units. 

6th: 7-2/1-6/3-5/4…Chanisa (7) looks solid here. This one is, yep, from the Asmussen barn, as well, and will get the coach’s kid up, too. Should appreciate this class drop and this 4YO Maryland-bred has hit the board in 6 of 9 lifetime tries. Should be closing with a big shot here, as well. Little Sass (2) looks like she will fit with this group, as well. Moves up after a near-miss at KEE in a $20,000 claiming event. Has speed and looks to be the burner here. I bet the 7 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-7 sternly in the exactas. I will also key the 7-2 over/under the 1-6-3-5 in two smaller units. 

7th: 1/2-3-7-9/8//4-6/5…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with the railbird — Arro Smash (1). This 4YO son of Arrogate is conditioned by Philip Bauer, one of the best, young people in the game today. Guy can get them ready to go, too. Has won with .25% of 32 starts so far this year. And, is coming off a nice win, too. Look out. Has a win and a runner-up in three previous tries here. I bet the 1 across the board and double/triple down on the win wager. I will key the 1 over/under the 2-3-7-9-8 in the exactas. More with the 2-3-7 than the rest. 

8th: 6/9-3/5-8/1-4…The final “Key Play of the Day” comes in the finale, too. Greyhound Station (6) was picked up off the claim last time out at KEE for $40,000. Moves up to the $50,000 watermark here, but this one looks capable of handling the uptick in class. Barn wins with .25% on the first try after a purchase and the rider has experience here before, as well. Will be asked to go, go, go early. And I would think that is a great strategy. I bet the 6 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 6 over/under the 9-3-5-8-1-4 in the exactas. I will box the 6-9, sternly, as well. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene