Days Picks
2024 Overall — 466 466 / 131-144-191
Win % of Top Pick 28.11%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 33.33%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 269-467 57.60%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 14-22 63.64%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 19-26 73.08%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 224-400 56.00%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ FG — 12-18 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 5-22 22.73%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 8/26 30.77%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP — 110-400 27.50%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ FG — 8-18 44.44%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 4/2-2-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE — 2/2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP  39/ 13-10-6 33.33% Win / 74.36% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 1 / 0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 46/ 17-12-6 36.96% Win / 76.09% ITM

(Stats need to be updated with Derby Week selections and results…coming soon…promise)

Here’s our looks for tonight’s “Thursday Twilight” racing at the big oval in Louis-Town:

1st: 4-2/1/3-5/6…Cant Keep Me Down (4) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at Churchill Downs this evening for the Thursday night special, that kick starts at 5 p.m. ET. This 4YO daughter of The Factor ran poorly last time out at KEE. But that was against way tougher than what she will face here. Trainer wins with .10% of those that move from turf to dirt and picks up a very salty veteran in the irons. Like. Windy Bay (2) is another dropping in class for this spot. Top notch trainer is winning with .15% of 54 starts this year. Picks up a huge rider switch for this one, and the jockey is at .26% win rate so far this meet. Nice. I bet the 2 — take note — to win/place/show and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 4-2 in the exactas. I will key the 4-2 over/under the 1-3-5-6 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 5-3/7-4-1//2//6…Great Richie M (5) has run 4 seconds in a row after breaking the Maiden for $30,000 claiming at Turfway Park in December. Always there, it seems. May find the dirt to his liking here. Badlands Ruler (3) has not started since March 21 at Aqueduct. Ships here for a NY-based trainer, who is winning with .20% of the 82 starts this year. This one picks up a solid rider, who is bound to get hotter soon. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-3 in the exactas. I will key the 5-3 over/under the 7-4-1 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 2-12-6/9-1/8-11/3-4…Baytown Sundance (2) is the pick of this 2YO litter. Has run a race at KEE and that experience should assist the effort. Big rider switch here and the barn knows how to get 2YOs ready. Wide open affair, but this one rates a shot. Sweet Fantasy (12) is a first timer for the barn of Mark Casse, which is reeling in the wins at a whopping .06% rate. Typical for this meet every year. But the dam of this 2YO colt has 7 winners from 8 starters — including 2 Stakes winners. Should fit nicely here. Repeatinmgofcourse (6) has a top trainer, who gets overlooked a lot. Dam has a winner from 2 starters. Not overlook this colt. I bet the 2-12 across the board and then box the top three numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 9-1 in two smaller units. 

4th: 4-1-2/(14)-7-8/5/6-12//3-9-11…The first grass event of the day/night, if it sticks to the sod. Hidden Presence (4) looks the best of the grass runners. Has 3 seconds in a row after two thirds back-to-back. Has 7 career starts, and is still looking for win #1. But? Has never missed the board either. Tonight the night? I bet the 4 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 4-1-2 in the exactas. I definitely use the 14 if she draws in from the AE List. Keep an eye out. 

5th: 7-4-2/8/5/1-3-6…Asmodeus (7) ran a solid second at this same level last time out and has now hit the board in 5 of 9 lifetime starts. A career brides-maid, though. Needs to find a way to get past at the wire. Can he? Epic Battle (4) should improve off the sloppy surface he ran over here last October. Has speed and can stalk. Big difference, though, is the addition of Lasix for the first time. Take note. Abadin (2) will run for the first time as a gelding. It has not been a month yet since the surgery, and that is a bit touchy, so to speak. Has talent. Is he better focused? I bet the 7-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8 in two smaller units. 

6th: 8-4/2-6/9-7/1-3-11/5…Lips Say Bliss (8) goes for a bright young trainer in Robby Medina. Look for more out of this barn operation over the year. Used to be an assistant to HOFer Shug McGaughey. This one won the last time out at Oaklawn Park to give the 4YO gelding his 2nd win in 4 starts. Never missed the board. Like the jockey switch, too. I bet the 8 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 8-4 in the exactas. I will key the 8-4 over/under the 2-6-9-7 in two smaller units. 

7th: 2-1-11/(12)-8/4-5-7-10/3/9…The last grass race of the night and I line up with Fort Washington (2), speaking of the HOFer Shut McGaughey. He trains this one, a won of War Front. Comes in with a 3-2-5 record in 15 grass tarts. Can stalk. Will finish. Like the rider choice. Salute the Stars (1) comes from the barn of Brad Cox, who is winning with .25% after the first 24 starts this meet. This one has not started since last September and has a 1-1-0 record in 3 grass starts. Needs to come out firing. Trainer known to be able to get them ready off the bench. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. If off the grass, I divert directly to Hayes Strike (12). I’ll key the 2-1-11 over/under the 8 if it stays on the sod

8th: 9-6-4/11/1-3/5-8-10/2-7…The final event of the night will be contested over the main track and will travel 7 furlongs. I go with Ready for Trouble (9), who is coming off a nice win at Oaklawn Park last time out. Ran off by over 4 in that one. Has 2 seconds in 2 starts here. Trainer does well at this track, too. One to beat, IMO. Mila Junes (6) is my Upset Special of the Night. This one was claimed just two starts ago, when it was a winning effort. No chance in the last one and still ran 3rd. Winner came right back to win again. Gets a top rider, who is red hot right now. I’m all in on this one. I bet the 9-6 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will box the 9-6-4 in another round of exactas, and I will key the 9-6-4 over/under the 11 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene