(Churchill Downs / Coady Media)

Days Picks
2024 Overall — 466 466 / 131-144-191
Win % of Top Pick 28.11%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 33.33%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 269-467 57.60%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 14-22 63.64%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 19-26 73.08%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 224-400 56.00%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ FG — 12-18 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 5-22 22.73%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 8/26 30.77%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP — 110-400 27.50%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ FG — 8-18 44.44%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 4/2-2-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE — 2/2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP  39/ 13-10-6 33.33% Win / 74.36% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 1 / 0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 46/ 17-12-6 36.96% Win / 76.09% ITM

(Stats to be updated with Saturday’s results)

Here’s our looks for the kick-start to Kentucky Derby 150 Week, on this opening Tuesday to a week full of excitement and grandeur:

1st: 1-4/5-6/2-3…Dreamster (1) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on this Tuesday, which could be a soggy one according to the forecast. This 5YO, Florida-bred mare comes in off a near-miss 2nd at Tampa Bay Downs last time out. Has run in two Graded Stakes already this year, as well. Gets the meet’s top rider up here. Look for a breakout here. Margoinablubblebath (4) has been off the board in the last two, but won the previous two before that. With a return to that form, this 4YO filly could be a tough out. Has a win in 6 starts here. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 1-4 in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 5-6-2-3- in two smaller units. 

2nd: 6-3-4/2-5/1…Luma Moth (6) will drop back to the $32,000 level here and that drop should help, along with a return to the dirt track. Barn wins with .19% of those that go turf to dirt, in the last 515 tries. Son gets the ride, and this one has 2 wins in 5 tries here. Throw out the last one and this one hit the board in the previous 4 outs. My Good Fortune (3) has a win and a third here in two tries and picks up a world class rider for this trip. Has a 2-1-1 mark in 6 efforts at this distance, too. Could come late, if track is playing to closers. Sunny Isle Beach (4) wo the last time out at this same level and a similar effort will make her tough again. Has a 2-2-4 record in 13 tries here. I bet the 6-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-5 in two smaller units

3rd: 5-2/1/6-8/4//7…Ghostly Night (5) picks up the world’s best rider for this one and returns as a beaten favorite. Barn has won with .32% of the last 28 to qualify for that title. Rider has gone 6-1-2 in the last 17 outs. Nice. Sense You Left (2) has won two of six here Has hit the board in the last 4 outs and 5 of last 6. Has speed to be dangerous here. I bet the 5 across the board and box the 5-2 in the exactas. I will key the 5-2 over/under the 1 in two smaller units. 

4th: 2-1//3-5-7/4-6…Batten Down (2) is even-money in the ML and will be a tough out for HOF trainer Bill Mott. Could have won either of the last two outs. Should be right there at the wire here. I bet the 2 to win/place and then box the 2-1 in the exactas. I will key the 2 over the 1 in another robust exacta play. 

5th: 6/3-(13)-(14)/11-(15)/4-8/(12)/2-7-(16)…If this one stays on the soggy sod, then Battle of Normandy (6) is the first Key Play of the Day. This 4YO son of City of Light will make the 2024 debut here. Has the class edge on any and all in this field. Sharp work on April 22 and will get the blinkers here for the first time, too. According to connections, this one is doing very well. I bet the 6 if this one stays one the sod. I play him to win/place and then key over/under the 3-13-14-11-15-4-8 in the exactas. If it comes off the sod? Take your best guess.

6th: 4-7/9/1-8/3-8…Collect a Lil (4) spit the bit last time out, but the run two times back was solid. Picks up a new rider after a tough trip in the last one when stopped. Should figure better with this group here. Outrageously (7) won the last time out and now will face winners for the first time. Barn has moved up to win only .09% of the last 22 when facing winners. But the barn also wins with .18% of those that go from the All-Weather surface to the traditional dirt. Maybe. I bet the 4 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 4-7  in the exactas. I will key the 4-7 over/under the 9 in two smaller units. 

7th: 8-3/4-1/7-9/6/5/2…Broughty Ferry (8) could be a steal if the ML odds stay anywhere close to 4-1. This one gets a top rider here and does have a 2nd in only previous try over this track. I can toss the last two and the deep closer will be a factor. Love the fact that this one has a win and a 2nd in three tries at the distance. Transparency (3) gets a red-hot rider and is eligible to improve off the last one with a new trainer in tow. Barn has won with .26% of the last 34 when training for the first time. Figures to enjoy a return to the dirt here, too. I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-3 in the exactas. I will key the 8-3 over/under the 4-1-7-9 in two smaller units.

8th: (10)-(9)/5/1-4/6-3-7/8…If this one comes off the sod, I go to the outside and the Main Track Only horses, too. Clearly Unhinged (10) is coming off a G1 Stakes at Santa Anita last December. Ran 3rd in that one. Should appreciate the class here. Pistol (9) woman the last time out in high-end company at Oaklawn Park. Looks to have classy speed for this one. If it remains on the sod, I will single Howboutdemapples (5). This one ran well on a soft grass course in Lexington last time out and has hit the board in 7 of 10 turf starts. I bet the 10 or the 5 across the board and then double down on the win wager. If off the grass, then I box the 10-9. If on, I key the 5 over/under the 1-4-6-3-7 in the exactas. 

9th: 3-1/2-6-9-(13)/12-7-8-10-4…The day’s finale goes to Midnight Ambition (3). This 3YO son of Tale of the Cat comes in off a near-miss 3rd last time out. Returns to the same level and picks up a huge rider switch. Has speed and should stalk the leaders. Global Stage (1) is the even-money ML favorite, but doesn’t seem to want to finish what he starts. Still a maiden at age 5. Odds will be tough to swallow. I try to beat. I bet the 3 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 3-1 solidly in the exactas. I will key the 3-1 over/under the 2-6-9-13-12-7 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene