Days Picks 11 / 1-5-3
2024 Overall — 562 562 / 165-175-236
Win % of Top Pick 29.36%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 34.16%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 327-562 58.19%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD — 58-96 60.42%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 14-22 63.64%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 19-26 73.08%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 224-400 56.00%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ FG — 12-18 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — 34-96 35.42%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 5-22 22.73%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 8/26 30.77%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP — 110-400 27.50%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ FG — 8-18 44.44%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 4/2-2-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE — 2/2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP  39/ 13-10-6 33.33% Win / 74.36% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 1 / 0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 5 / 1-0-0 20.00% Win / 20.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 51/ 18-12-6 35.29% Win / 70.59% ITM

(Stats to be updated with last week’s results)

Here’s our looks at the Twilight Thursday card at the big oval in Louis-Town on this evening:

1st: 3-6/5/2/4//1-7…Mitole’s Legacy (3) gets the nod in the ole-lid lifter tonight at 5 p.m. first post. The 3YO filly goes for a trainer who has won with .33% of the last 6 to make the first start off the claim purchase. But? Is 0-for-4 with the first route this year. This gal has some potential and should be able to handle the step up in class here. Has some speed and can use. Malu (6) is a New York-bred who is facing open company for the first time ever. Don’t know how she will handle the company increase and is coming off a MCL win, too. This barn wins with .16% of the last 366 to make the first start after a claim. Interesting spot. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-6 in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under the 6-5-2-4 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 4-2/7-3//5…Blood Brother (4) was nominated to this year’s Triple Crown by the owner, Calumet Farm, but is now being offered up for a slice of heaven and $10,000. Has not run well, but that is in straight MSW company. Drop in class should benefit this one. Curlins Incharge (2) has run 16 times so far with just 3 thirds on the resume. Drops to a career low price tag here. Barn wins with .23% of the last 156 to drop two levels at one time. Chance? I bet the 4 across the board and then modestly box the 4-2 in the exactas. I will key the 4-2 over/under the 7-3 in two smaller units. If you play the Pick 5? May be time for the “all button.” 

3rd: 3-2-4/1/5/6…Coexist (3) rates a small edge here. Rider has gone 4-4-1 in the last 16 mounts and the trainer wins with .18% when away from the gate this long. Training session on May 2 was spot on. Looks ready to return. Altered Shot (2) has been away longer than our top pick. This barn wins with .25% off the bench. Gets the Commonwealth’s best rider up for the first time since three starts ago a last September. Should help here. Center Stage (4) won the last time out and has hit the board in 5 of the last 6 outings. Consistent sort. Chance. I bet the 3-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in a smaller unit. 

4th: 1-3/5-6/7-4/8…Cool Memory (1) could remember how to win here, again. Like he did just two starts ago. Comes back down the ladder for a trainer who is super aggressive when he spots his lots. Gets a solid rider up here for the first time. Has won 3 of 9 so far. Not bad. Cool Quartet (3) has run 3 runner-ups in a row. Needs to find a way to get up at he winer. Barn wins with .25% of the last 178 to return as a beaten favorite. Chance. I bet the 1-3 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I key the 1-3 over (only) the 5-6-7-4 in a  smaller unit. 

5th: 5-4/(7)/6-2/3/1…The only grass race of the night and it will be contested at the over-land route of 13/8ths-miles. Wow. I go with Mrs. Astor (5). This 4YO Lookin At Lucky filly goes for a top trainer, who is still looking for his first win of the meet. Does have 2 runner-ups in the first 5 starts. This one came with a rush at the end of the allowance at Keeneland last time out. That should set this one up nicely for big effort here. Viva La Red (4) is the prohibitive ML favorite and comes off a huge 2nd at KEE last time out, too. But? Has 1 win in 23 starts. Ugh. If it comes off the sod, I immediately go to the only MTO entry — Neon Icon (7). This one routed his opponents over the main track at KEE on April 17 in his only previous start. Should love it here, too. I bet the 5 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will do the same with the 7 if it comes off the sod. I will box the 5-4 sternly in the exactas and then key the 5-4 over/under the 6-2-3-1 in two smaller units. If off turf? I key the 7 over/under the “all button.”

6th: 1/6/3/4-2-5-7/8…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with the railbird — Sparkle of Hope (1). I know this 6YO mare has not raced since December, but, by now, she knows what she is doing and how to come off the bench running. Last work on May 11 was spot on. Gets a red hot rider up and looks ready. I’m in. All in. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I key the 1 over/under the 6-3-4-2-5-7 in the exactas. 

7th: 3-8/6-4/2-1/9-7/5…J T’s Imagination (3) gets my call here, for good buddies Tom Odell Smith and Bob Mitchell. Ran very well against a very tough field at KEE last time out and now drops to a career low level. Only previous time offered up for this amount was when he broke the MCL here on Oct. 23 of last year. Won that by nearly 5. Looks like a good spot to route again. Tizzy Indy (8) is another colt who was nominated for the Triple Crown. Was claimed last time out here when he was a fast, fast, fast closing 3. Could win here with the move up in class. Top connections. I bet the 3-8 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 3-8 over/under the 6-4-2-1 in two smaller units. 

8th: 2-1-7/3-5/6…Tonight’s finale is a wide open affair, but I give a slight edge to Loveland (2). This 3YO filly was claimed last time out for $40,000 and now has 3 seconds in 4 starts. New operation wins with .17% of the last 41 to make the first start after a claim. Gets a new rider and the best in this land. Could be the difference. I’m Thinking (1) makes the drop into the claiming ranks for the first time and the barn does quite well with those kind and those coming off the bench. Drop could help. I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 2-1-7 in the exactas. I will key the 2-1-7 over/under the 3-5 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene