Days Picks 10 / 4-3-4
2024 Overall — 665 665 / 199-212-290
Win % of Top Pick 29.92%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 35.14%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 392-665 58.95%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD — 117-190 61.58%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 14-22 63.64%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 19-26 73.08%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 224-400 56.00%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ FG — 12-18 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ PIM — 6-9 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — 63-190 33.16%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 5-22 22.73%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 8/26 30.77%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP — 110-400 27.50%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ FG — 8-18 44.44%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ PIM — 5-9 55.56%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 4/2-2-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE — 2/2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP  39/ 13-10-6 33.33% Win / 74.36% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 1 / 0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 16 / 8-2-0 50.00% Win / 62.50 ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 63/ 25-14-6 39.68% Win / 71.43% ITM

(Updating is act in progress…soon to be completely current)

Here’s our looks at the Churchill Downs’ kick-start to the final week of its’ Spring / Summer meet — to be highlighted by the G1 Stephen F. Foster Stakes Day this weekend. Hope you have enjoyed this meet as much as we have. So many great horses. So many great stories.

1st: 6-2/7-9/8-5/3-4…Sweet Mo B (6) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Louis-Town on this final “Hump Day” of the meet. This 2YO son of Complexity has a couple of starts at the MSW level and now drops to $40,000. Barn wins with .19% of the last 48 when dropping into this condition. Picks up a rider having a solid meet against a very tough jockey group. Work on June 7 was spot on. Herb Elias (2) goes for a HOF trainer and his son, the rider. Apprentice gets the weight break and that could help here. Has sparked some interest at the betting windows in the first two starts. Has not been able to live up to the bettor’s expectations, so far. Barn does win with .21% in the MCL ranks. I bet the 6 across the board and the box the 6-2 in the exactas. I will key the 6-2 over/under the 7-9-8-5 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 6-5-4/3/1/2…I go back to the #6 in this affair, too, and line up with Title Lady (6). This one has not raced since May 3 when she threw a clunker down at the Oaklawn Park. Before that, though, this one was spot on in the Spring. If she can return to previous form with this drop in class. Look out. Sweets Maker (5) is getting to the dirt here and the barn wins with .15% of the last 66b to make this surface switch. Barn wins with .22% of the last 31 to go into the claiming ranks for the first time, as well. Rider has won 2 of 3 for this trainer. Margoinabubblebath (4) won the last time out and was claimed by the new trainer. Has won with only .08% on the first try after the purchase. Has speed and that will be hard to catch here, maybe. I bet the 6 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in a solid exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3 in a smaller unit. 

3rd: 2-4/5-6/3-7//1…Leblon (2) was claimed last time out and now gets a very modest boost in class. Although the trainer is 0-for-12 here this meet, she does win with .24% of the last 89 to make the first start for the new barn after a purchase. This one looks red hot to begin with and the jockey sticks for this outing, as well. Doctor Nash (4) was claimed last time out, as well, and this new barn wins with .10% of the last 79 to make the first start for the new connections. New rider up here. Is a threat. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box these two solidly in the exactas. I will key the 2-4 over (only) the 5-6-3-7 in a smaller unit. 

4th: 4-8-(14)/2/10-12/1-6/3-5…Fleet Street (4) nearly won last time out and the 2YO Street Boss filly may improve with this shorter distance. Speed is her game and she may stretch it here. And One More Time (8) cost $750,000 to purchase last year at the FAsig-Tipton August Sale. Will make career first start here for a barn that has warmed up a bit lately. Rider has won two of the last three for trainer and the dam of this one has 3 winners from 3 starters with 2 Stakes winners in that grouping. Works are very solid. Could be the real deal. Empress Julia (14) rates a shot if she draws in from the AE List here. Just watch for her. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 4-8 over/under the 14-2-10-12 in two smaller units. 

5th: 1-4/2-7-10/6-(16)/3-8…Miyako (1) gets the edge here, for me. The filly ran well last time out and should improve with the blinkers on for the 2nd time. Trainer has been cold all meet, but this man can train. Look for better here out of this one. Barbtourage (4) is a well-bred daughter of Into Mischief and trained by one of the best sprint conditioners in the world. Dam of this filly has a winner from two starters and has already produced a turf winner. Could spark interest. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box them in the exactas. I will key the 1-4 over/under the 2-7-10-6 in two smaller units. 

6th: 6-9-7/1-8-10/4…Vino Veritas (6) drops back into the MCL ranks after a bold attempt to move up to the MSW level. Has run two decent 3rds in the first two starts and could improve with the drop back in class here. Kentucky’s best rider takes the mount for the first time. Take note. Corri Felice (9) ran super well at the $30,000 level. Moves up a click here and could be a threat. E B Zoom Baby (7) drops in class here and is a claim possibility at the $40,000 note. Could improve here. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 6-7 over/under the 9-1-8-10-4 in two smaller units. 

7th: 4-5/1/6/8…Fan the Fire (4) is the first of three straight #4s for me to finish out the card. This one is a 5YO gelded son of Hard Spun and is dropping back in class after a solid effort against much better last out. Had won two in a row and finished n the top 3 for 4 straight. I bet the 4 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I box the 4-5 solidly in the exactas. I key the 4 over/under the 5-1-6-8 in two smaller units. 

8th: 4-2-5/3/6/8-7…Pistol (4) is the second of the #4s to take my top spot and money support. This 5YO Gun Runner mare has hit the board in the last 3 outs and 5 of the last 6. Has run well at this distance and here. Gets a top rider up. Dry ground may make the distance today. I bet the 4 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 4 over/under the 2-5-3-6 in two smaller units. 

9th: 4-1/8-9-5-3/6/2…The final #4 comes in the final race of the day and with Harbor Springs (4). Trainer is having a super meet, winning at a .21% rate. Farm does well with this barn, too, and the new rider should fit perfectly in this 1-mile effort. Dry ground could really help here and this 3YO filly may be off to the races. I bet the 4 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 4-1 aggressively. I will key the 4-1 over/under the 8-9-5-3 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene