Days Picks 11 / 1-5-3
2024 Overall — 562 562 / 165-175-236
Win % of Top Pick 29.36%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 34.16%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money Overall — 327-562 58.19%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ CD — 58-96 60.42%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ HI — 14-22 63.64%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ KEE — 19-26 73.08%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 224-400 56.00%
2024 Only / Top Pick in the Money @ FG — 12-18 66.67%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ CD — 34-96 35.42%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ HI — 5-22 22.73%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ KEE — 8/26 30.77%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ TP — 110-400 27.50%
2024 Only / Top Pick Wins @ FG — 8-18 44.44%
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ HI — 4/2-2-0 50.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ KEE — 2/2-0-0 100.00% Win / 100.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ TP  39/ 13-10-6 33.33% Win / 74.36% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ FG 1 / 0-0-0 00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” @ CD 5 / 1-0-0 20.00% Win / 20.00% ITM
2024 Only / “Key Horses” Overall 51/ 18-12-6 35.29% Win / 70.59% ITM

(Stats to be updated)

Here’s our looks at the first Wednesday card since the week of the 150th Kentucky Derby. We will have 5 race days the remainder of the meet, when the action will switch to Churchill Downs’ newest racing property — the older and improved Ellis Park.

1st: 3-6/2-7/5…Bayou Magic (3) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval in Louis-Town on this “Hump Day” of racing activity. This 3YO song of Good Magic drops all the way to the low-low price of $10,000 today after running a speedy 4th at $40,000 last time out. Looks like a bargain here. Trainer wins with .30% of the last 36 when dropping this much at one time and wins with .19% of the last 113 when away from the gate this long. Look out here. I bet the 3 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 3-6 in the exactas and then key the 3 over/under all the numbers listed above in two smaller units. 

2nd: 5-3/6-2/1/4…Eternally Grateful (5) gets my #1 selection here. No surprise, in that the gelding is 2-1 in the ML. Toss the last one, when very overmatched, and this one fits at this condition nicely. Has just 2 wins in 13 starts at the distance. That is a concern. But does have 8 seconds, too. Has only one previous start here. Didn’t hit the board. Gets a top rider. Like a Saltshaker (3) goes for a top barn operation, which has won .22% of the last 54 outs. This one is 3-for-4 here and should fit with the drop in class to this level. Has a 9-5-0 mark in 16 starts at this distance. One to beat. I bet the 5 across the board and then box the 5-3 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 5-3 over/under the 6-2-1 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 8-2-9/6-10/3…Grand Sam (8) goes for a trainer who normally does very well at this grounds. Has a 4-2-7 mark in 33 starts so far. This one drops from the $50,000 level to this price line at $30,000. Should appreciate the class relief and the barn wins with .20% when sprinting. Air Force Cruising (2) was claimed last time out and this barn wins with a whopping .24% with the last 86 on the first start after the purchase. Has speed and returns, too, as a beaten favorite. May not stop this time, with the 2nd start off the layoff. Must use for me. Alilnalot (9) makes a nice drop inn class here, too. Sharp work on May 30. May be poised. I bet the 8-2 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6-10 in two smaller units.

4th: 1-7/5-8/6…Happymac (1) is a must use for me. My grandson, Mac, is always happy. The happiest 4YO in the world. He makes me smile just to look at him. So there you go. But this 6YO son of Runhappy has credentials, too. Rail is winning at a .25% rate. Drops in class here. Barm wins with .22% with beaten favorites. And…this one had a sharp work on May 30. I’m in. All in. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 1-7 in the exactas.  I will key the 1 over/under the 7-5-8-6 in two smaller units. 

5th: 3-5/7-1/4-6/2…Thestral (3) may not break the camel’s back, but be just the right name for this 4YO daughter of Cross Traffic. Trainer is classy and has gone 5-06-7 with the first 37 starters this meet. This one has run two nice 3rds so far this circuit. Gets a nice rider switch for this one. And, can stalk and pounce. Look out here. Windy Bay (5) goes for an under-rated trainer, who is still looking for the first win of the meet after 14 tries. Due. This one ran a huge 2nd last time out for the new rider, who returns here, as well. I like. I bet the 3-5 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 3-5 over (only) the 7-1-4 in a smaller unit.

6th: 10-4-3/5/(11)-(14)-6-9-8…This is the first grass event of the day and will be contested at the specialty distance of 5.5 furlongs. I go with the outside horse — Alcove (10). This 3YO son of Twirling Candy ran a huge one on debut at KEE. Just got tired at the wire time. If this guy improves at all? Just a little bit? Look out. Was bet down to favorite in the initial start, too. Somebody must like this one. Lieutenant General (4) is trained by Wesley Ward, who gears up his barn for these types of races. Has speed and will move to the sod for the first time. Barn wins with .19% of the last 48 to move surfaces. Royal Carol (3) is my “Upset Special of the Day.” This one ran well on the sod at KEE in mid-April. Tired late. Gets a class rider back up and the barn is on fire with limited numbers this meet. Guy can train. And, the breeding is spot on. So? I bet the 10-3 across the board and then I bet the 3 across the board again. I bet the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 5 in two smaller units. 

7th: 2-3/6-1-5/7/8…Popperina (2) is listed at 6-1 in the ML by Brisnet, the only place you need to go for your handicapping needs. But? This one fits this condition and is coming off a super win effort in mid-April at KEE for the same rider. Has run 4 times. Two wins. Two seconds. Hard to knock. I like.  Sundance Feature (3) was a run-away winner last time out — by over 12 lengths. Will be heavily bet here, but faces winners for the first time. Tough condition move up. I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-3 in the exactas. I will key the 2-3 over/under the 6-1-5-7 in two smaller units. 

8th: 2/3-1/4/5/6-7…The “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Doncho (2). Trained by one of the best and nicest people on the backside of any racetrack. She is absolutely wonderful and her horses love her and the treatment. This one is coming off a Stakes win at Aqueduct last time out and now has 3 wins in 4 lifetime tries. What is there not to like here? I bet the 2 to win/place and I double down on the win wager. I will key the 2 over/under the numbers listed above. More with the 3-1-4 than the rest. 

9th: 8-6-3/7-10-4/9/11-1-2…The finale today is a $50,000 MCL event for the fillies and I line up with Backstretch Rose (8). This one is listed at 6-1 in the ML, too. Like it. The 3YO daughter of Army Mule moves to the claiming ranks for the first time and the barn wins with .21% of the last 120 to do that. May get back to a fast track, and, if so, she will love that. Doesn’t prefer the off going, it appears. May be ready for a big effort here. Candy Craze (6) is a horse we tried to claim last time out. Five other owners thought the same thing. Moves up here off a solid 2nd on May 24 to the $50,000 level. Aggressive. Yes. But this one has talent. I bet the 8 across the board and then double down on the win wager if the track surface is fast. If not, I move to the 6. I box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene