(The G.O.A.T.? / Photo by Holly M. Smith)

Here’s our looks at the big, Stakes-filled, exciting card assembled at Ellis Park on this Sunday Fun-Day. Catch the action. Bet the races. Enjoy the fun.

1st: 5-6/1/2/3-4…Harrodsburg (5), winner of 3 in a row and looking to make it a quad, gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifer that the “Ole Pea Patch,” which has now been turned into the “Ole’ Lake Filler.” This 4YO gelded son of Constitution has had a big year already. Started 3 times. Won 3 times. Gets a new rider today, but that may be just what the DR ordered. Gets the meet’s top rider up and may be a real handful for the car dealer / (slash) owner Rod Hatfield. Look out here. Pensacola (6) is another horse named after a city and goes for a barn that has won with an amazing .33% of 79 starters this year. Ran 3 thirds in a row — but against tougher competition than our top pick. Has run over this track 3 times and has a win and two runner-ups. Not bad. Looks like a battle between these two. May want to take the one with the bigger odds. I bet the 6 — take note — across the board and then box the 5-6 in the exactas. I will key the 5-6 over/under the 1 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 6-5-7/4-9/3…Atlantic Dancer (6) has been out 15 times with 0 wins on the resume. That’s not the greatest of signs. But this one finally moves to another barn operation, which wins with .14% of those making the new trainer debut. Has been working OK here. Look at July 22. Gets a new start. Worth a shot. Kall Karl (5) is dropping to half the asking price that he ran for the last time and the time he was claimed. But this one shows a few signs of life. New trains wins with .21% on the 2nd start after a claim — with 118 to fill that bill. Chance. I bet the 6-5 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. That’s all folks. 

3rd: (14)-10/12-8/5-6/1-11-4…If Derby Girl (14) can wiggle her way off the AE List and into this race, I think she is the best of the field. Sharpened right up with the move to the sod and should improve with the 2nd go at a route distance. Barn wins with .23% of the last 22 to do that. But it is unlikely she gets in. If she doesn’t? I go immediately to Always Practical (10), who ran about a length behind our top pick in the last race. This 2YO daughter of Practical Joke should improve and gets a huge boost in a jockey change. Look out for this one to be humming right along at the beginning, too. I bet the 10 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 14-10, if they both get in. If not, I will key the 14-10 over/under the 12-8-5-6 in the exactas.

4th: 6/1-7/8/4…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with a pick that I could easily be talked out of, and, instead, spread on the race. How’s that for confidence? In other words? I have the best numbers on Legendary Lore (6). This one was claimed last time out by a HOF trainer, who wins with .17% of the last 383 to be picked up at the box office. Son rides, and has won with .26% of the last 138 for his dad. Has raced this distance 10 times. Zero wins. But has 2 runner-ups and 2 more thirds. I will take him. I bet the 6 across the board and then I will box the 6-1-7 in the exactas.  I will key the 6 over/under the 1-7-8-4 in two smaller units. 

5th: 1/6-7/4/5/2-8…I feel about the same way here, on this race. I will give Tx Women for Arts (1) the “Key Play of the Day” designation and title, but I would not go “hog wild.” This 3YO filly gets back to the dirt here after a debacle of a time over the turn last out. That’s important. Will get Lasix for the first time, too, and this barn wins with .23% of the last 301 to get the anti-bleeder for the first time. Big difference. And, drum roll please, this one will drop down from Stakes races to an optional-claimer. The biggest hop is a drop. Gets a new rider and that should help immensely, too. Adds up for me at a nice price. I bet the 1 across the board and then double/triple down on the win wager. I will box the 1-6-7 in this occasion and then key the 1 over/under the 6-7-4-5-2-8 in two smaller units. 

6th: 3-1-5/8/9-11/2-6-10…Chattanooga Crew (3) is my selection here. This 2YO daughter of Catalina Cruiser will make the second career start for a barn that wins twice as often on the 2nd outing than the initial try. Sharp work for this one on July 27 and the barn wins with .19% of the last 161 to move from turf to dirt. Adds up for me here, too. On the Move (1) is a first timer for Brad Cox, who has gone 4-1-1 in the last 10 outs. Look at the rider here. Jose Ortiz? On a Cox horse? Look out. I bet the 3-1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas.  I will key the top 3 over/under the 8 in two smaller units. 

7th: 3-8-11/1/2/5/10-4…KY Downs Preview Turf Sprint…This is the first of four Stakes events on the card this Sunday and what a race, as we all look forward to a bright September over the hills and dales of Kentucky Downs. I go with Arrest Me Red (3), who comes from the barn of Wesley Ward. The guy just wins races. Has won with .27% of 198 tries this year, overall. Has started only 5 here, but three of them have hit the board. Look for this one to break a bit better than the last try and go. At least to a nice stalking position. If gets away clean? Look out. Mo Stash (8) nearly won the Mighty Beau at Churchill Downs last out. Ran 3rd by just a length. But the first two came right back to win the next outs. Key race? Coppola (11) won the Stakes at Horseshoe Indy last time out, but that was when it was washed off the sod and onto the main track. This one has run this distance 14 times. Has gone 4-1-1 in those. Will push the pace, too. I bet the 3-8 across the board and then I double down on the 8. I will include the top 3 in an exacta box and then key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two smaller units.

8th: 11-5-3/14-9/2-10/4-7-12…KY Downs Preview Ladies Turf Mile Stakes…Obviously, this one goes a mile over the sod here and I line up with Walkathon (11) in a narrow margin over the other two listed in the “A” group. This 5YO mare won the last time out at Churchill Downs when making the lead the entire way. In 12 grass races now, this one has gone 5-1-1 now. Can motor and gets a good pace rider. Fast as Flight (5) can stalk the pace, with a clean break and could be the first to have a shot in the lane. Rider holding his own here this meet. In 10 times at this distance? This one has gone 2-3-1. Regal Realm (3) could be the best value, though. This 5YO mare went 4-0-1 in 6 starts a year ago and has only one start this year. Ran 5th, but beaten only 1/2 length in that one, too. Gets a top grass rider up. Top. Chance here at a number. I bet the 11-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 14-9 in two smaller units. 

9th: 6-7/4/3-9//1-2…G3 Pucker Up Stakes…This is the big one. Grade 3 status. I go with Pin Up Betty (6), the ML favorite. This 3YO daughter of Constitution, ran 4th in the G1 Belmont Oaks last time out. Before that, though, won two in a row at Churchill Downs — including the G3 Regret Stakes at Churchill Downs. Can close. Can stalk. Can run. Very well. In 4 grass starts overall? This one has a 2-1-0 mark. Not bad. I bet the 6 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 6-7 in the exacts. Sternly. Then I key the 6-7 over/under the 4-3-9 in two smaller units. 

10th: 1-5/2-4/11/6-7-10…KY Downs Preview Turf Cup, with a whopping purse of $300,000. I go with the rail bird here — Win for the Money (1). This 5YO gelding comes in off a 4th in the G2 Wise Dan. Before that, though, this one had hit the board in 6 of the last 7 races, with 3 wins in the mix. Looks like he can get the distance of 11/4 miles. Ran 3rd I’m a G3 that was 11/2-miles at Woodbine before. Siege of Boston (5) ships in from Monmouth to take a whack at his huge Stakes race. This 5YO son of War Front has the breeding and he can close when he is asked. Jose Ortiz in to ride. Wow. Jose Ortiz. Nice. Look out. I bet the 1-5 across the board and then box these two sternly. Sternly. I will key the 1-5 over/under the 2-4 in two smaller units. I also double down on the 1 here. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene