Days Picks 10 / 5-6-4
2025 Overall — 222 222 / 55-76-82
Win % of Top Pick 24.74%
Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall 31.98%
2025 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 109-222 49.09%
2025 Only Top Pick in the Money @ TP — 109-222 49.09%
2025 Top Pick Wins @ TP Winter — 55-222 24.74%
2025 “Key Horses” @ TP — 19 / 9-1-1 47.37% Win / 57.89% ITM
2025 “Key Horses” Overall — 19 / 9-1-1 47.37% Win / 57.89% ITM

(Stats to be updated)

Here’s our looks for the Opening Day card at the grand Horseshoe Indianapolis in God’s Country, USA. Can’t wait to get myself up to the corn fields and the gentleman farms that scatter the hillsides and valleys surrounding one of the most scenic and best racing venues in these parts. It is paradise for this ole’ country boy:

1st: 7/6/2-1/3-4/5-8…My first “Key Play of the Day” comes in the very first race of the 2025 meet. How about that? I go strong and stern with Mondavila (7), who is a nice 6-1 in the ML set by Brisnet.com. This 3YO gelding has not started since he was a distant 9th in the finale of the 2024 season. But this time around, he is going to catch a fast track (not a sloppy one) and will get the benefit of Lasix for the first time. Trainer is one of the best on the grounds and wins with .23% when getting the anti-bleeder med for the first time. Sharp work on April 8. Looks really good here to me. I bet the 7 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 7-6 sternly. I will key the 7 over/under the 6-2-1-3-4 in two smaller units.

2nd: 6-4-8/1/5/7-3…Campton (6) is a 5YO gelded son of Uncle Mo and is trained by HOFer Steve Asmussen. He ran very well over the AW at Turfway Park in the last 4 outs and, probably, against tougher competition. Can stalk or can go right to the front. Was claimed off Asmussen here last year and claimed right back, which is a solid sign. Looks salty here. Cupid’s Runaway (4) is the heavy favorite here and could give Klopp a “daily double” to begin the meet. This one has never faced open company before, like he will here. But he is also 8 for 10 at this track. Danger zone. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 6 over/under the 4-8-1-5 in two smaller units.

3rd: 6-4/5/3-2/7/1…Slam Dunk Justice (6) is the 4-5 ML favorite here and deserves the recognition. Gets Lasix for the first time, but this trainer wins with only 5% of the last 39 getting the meds. Ugh. Rider is an apprentice and will get his first try for this barn today. Has Stakes experience here and has gone 1-2-2 in 7 starts over this track. But could be a bit over-bet in this spot. Catch a Nite Train (4), who is 15-1 in the ML, is my “Upset Special of the Day.” This 3YO didn’t like the gap last time out, dropping the rider in the process. But Joe Ramos gets the mount again and this one has some speed talent. Gets Lasix for the first time and this barn excels with that option. Look out here. I bet the 4 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 6-4 sternly. I key the 6-4 over/under the 5-3-2-7 in two smaller units.

4th: 1-2-5/3-6-4//8…Song of the Vale (1) will make the career debut here for a solid barn operation, and gets my tab based on the pedigree and the work pattern. Gets a solid rider, who has won with .22% of the last 9 rides for this barn. Barn wins with .17% of the last 12 when debuting in the MCL ranks and with .16% of the last 56 to make the career debut. My choice. Mi Sargento (2) is an upset candidate here. Gets Lasix for the first time and has the edge in experience. Drops from the MSW ranks into the claiming level for the first time. Barn wins with .15% of those kind. Chance with a solid veteran rider up. Allkindsoftrouble (5) is another first timer from the same barn as the railbird. Dam of this one has 2 winners from 4 staters and has worked in tandem with the top one. I bet the 1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the 1 over/under the 2-5-3-6-4 in two smaller units.

5th: 5-2-3/8/11-12/10-4/1-6…Flame Rock Fire (5) is a NY-bred who ships in from the Fair Grounds for a solid barn operation. Trainer wins with .28% when going from MSW into the MCL ranks for the first time. Top rider gets the mount here and this one looks very capable of getting the job done here. Look out. I bet the 5 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 5-2-3 in the exactas, and then key the top 3 numbers over/under the 8 in two smaller units.

6th: 6-10/7-4/9-3/12-2/5-8…Smooth N Silky (6) is another who can out-run the odds here. Brisnet.com set the ML on this one at 12-1. Nice. Will make the first start for this barn after being claimed last out at Turfway Park. Drops to the bargain bin here and has the speed to be very dangerous. Apprentice rider gets a 7-pound weight break, too. Could speed off here. Motown Star (10) has the speed to press the pace, too. Has a run this year and looked pretty darn good at the Fair Grounds. Gets a big drop here and could be a tough out. Barn wins with .21% in the claiming ranks. I bet the 6-10 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-10 oiver/under the 7-4-9-3 in two smaller units.

7th: 9-1/2-6-7-5/8-10…The first Handicap Stakes of the New Year for this most hospitable racing environment. And, I go with Latino (9), a veteran in these parts. Has raced here 17 times. Has a sparkling record of 9-4-2 and has earned over $425,000 in purses. Won the last race of his ’24 season here against open company and over a sloppy track. Should be fast today and this one has no problem with that surface type, either. Has hit the board in each of the last 4 outs and won in a breeze to open the ’24 campaign off a similar layoff. Works indicate he’s ready. I’m ready to bet. Goodlookinjustice (1) ran in a G3 at KEE last Fall to end the ’24 campaign. Didn’t fare great there, but this is a different spot and a different story. Has raced here 9 times with 5 wins and 4 seconds. Loves it here. Will be a tough out with a good break and a rail trip. I bet the 9-1 across the board, each, and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 9-1 over (only) the 2-6-7-5-8-10.

8th: 3-10-12/7-9-8/6-11/5…The female version of the previous Handicap Stake and I will go with The Kid Pataky (3), who was a top 3YO on these grounds just a year ago. Has raced 12 times here with a 6-2-1 mark and earnings over $224,000. She took a race or two to get going last year, and that’s a bit of a concern here in the ’25 opener. But she has the talent and a great work on April 8 to set the stage. My top number in this spot. Ekati Flatter (10) is a filly we beat a year ago in the Checkered Flag with our now-retired Diamond Solitaire. (She has a date with the stallion Jack Christopher coming up.) But this one has gone 6-5-4 in 19 starts here and comes in as a beaten favorite last time out. Barn wins with .28% of those over the last 102 to qualify. Rider is top notch, and I’m glad to see is hanging his hat here. Solid work on April 8, too. Could spoil the top pick’s debut. Don’t Miss Out (12) is 20-1 in the ML and rates a big shot for me. I def use. Never missed the board. Just a 3YO and will face older. I know. But I like her. I bet the 3-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the 3-12 over/under the 10-7-9-8 in two smaller units.

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene