Final Version With Comments Added: McLean’s Selections for Keeneland on Tuesday, April 8 — Toyota Blue Grass Stakes Day

(Stats to be updated with the conclusion of the Turfway Park meet)

Here’s our looks at the rescheduled card for Keeneland’s annual Toyota Blue Grass Stakes Day:

1st: 8-2/3-10-7/1-9…This is a 7-furlong sprint for the maiden 3YOs, and we line up with Invictus (8), who could provide us a handsome reward to start one of the biggest days of the Keeneland racing year — the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes Day. It was moved to this Tuesday due to the extreme storms that have wrecked havoc on the Commonwealth since last week. But here’s hoping for sunshine and butterflies the rest of this meet and through the 151st Kentucky Derby. This horse is by Into Mischief and cost the connections $1.2 million to purchase at the 2023 KEE September Yearling Sale. This one is out of the KY Oaks winning mare — Serengeti Empress — and has run only one time, to date. Sprinted out front and went the first quarter in :21 & change at Saratoga last July. Spit the bit in that one and lost to Chancer McPatrick — who has turned into a pretty darn good runner, in his own right. If you will remember, Serengeti was a bleeder and she demanded Lasix. Kind of looks like something like “bleeding” may have happened in Invictus’ first race, too. Gets Lasix for the first time here and looks to be training quite well for the return. Look out here. Camp Hale (2) has run 3 runner-ups in 4 lifetime starts. Looks like he could add another one here. I bet the 8 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 8-2 in the exactas. I will key the 8-2 over/under the 3-10-7 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 9-11/5-12/1-7/4/6-2…This is scheduled to be the first grass race of the day, and of the meet, for that matter. Since the deluge of 2025, all grass races were washed off the soggy turf on Sunday and, at the time of this post, most likely on Monday, as well. If this one is run on the grass? I have to tell you that we own Courageous Clay (5), and we love the way he came out of his last race at Turfway Park and has been training of late. I will be on hand to root like hell for both the horse, and his namesake, Clay Goodwin. I will go all in. And, we plan to run either on the grass or the main track, if the sod is not ready to be tested yet. Look at some of the horses we have already run up against, in the past. Final Gambit, winner of the G3 Jeff Ruby. Sing Sing. Giocoso. Minute Station. Executor. Tough customers. And, Clay will have to do some running here, too, if he figures to have a good shot. Fateful Lightning (9) ran a huge one on debut at Gulfstream Park on March 2, and one of my best friends ever — former Cincy Reds pitcher Rob Murphy — is part of the West Point team that owns a portion of him, as well. Rob and I have owned horses together in the past, but this will be the first time we have faced each other. I always did want to hit against a big leaguer. Just to see how I would fare. Now, Clay is my designated hitter. Murph’s bay colt is by Tapit and cost $600,000 to purchase at the 2023 KEE September Sale. Our gelding did not cost $600,000. Bermuda Triangle (11) could be a bit of surprise in here, as well. This one ran a very nice second against Final Gambit last time out. The latter came back to win the Jeff Ruby Steaks. I bet 5 across the board and then I box the 5-9-11 in the exactas. Big time. I then key the 5 over/under the 9-11-12-1-7-4 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 7-9/3-2/1/8…Tip Top Thomas (7) is the ML favorite and will be getting Lasix for the first time for trainer Todd Pletcher. Has not been out since last October, when he was 2nd to Chancer McPatrick in the G1 Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. Gets regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. Has speed. Will run. Will be tough to oust here. Brad Cox, who is winning with .27% of the last 1,189 starters, will have a salty type in here, as well. Gunmetal (1) comes out of a 3rd place finish in the Swale Stakes and should be pressing the pace here in this one, too.  I bet the 7 to win/place and double down on the win wager. I will also bet the 9 across the board. I will key those two over/under the 3-2-1-8 in two smaller units. 

4th: 12-2/1/5-6-7-(15)…Northern Invader (12) gets a tough post for this affair, but the 5YO gelded son of Collected has the speed to get out and clear the insiders, if he breaks well for rider Jose Ortiz. In the last 23 mounts for this barn operation, Jose Ortiz has won with 30%. Look for this one to be tough on the lead. West Hollywood (2) is the favorite for Cox and rider Flavien Prat. Won the G3 Saranac at Saratoga last August. Ran off by over 51/2 lengths at the wire. Not raced since that Aug. 30 event, though, and may need a reminder race. I bet the 12 across the board and double down in the win wager. I box the 12-2 sternly. I key the 12-2 over/under the 1 in two smaller units. 

5th: 4-2/7-12/10-5-9/11-6…Pitkin (4) has run two super nice 2nds to start the career for a stand-out, top trainer. This son of Nyquist doesn’t have to improve much at all to score the win here. Barn wins with .13% of beaten favorites, too. Look out. Shangrala Road (2) is another from the Cox barn and rates a chance, too. Ran a nice 2nd to Disruptor in the career debut. City of Light colt has some ability here. I bet the 4 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the 4-2 sternly and then I key the 4-2 over (only) the 7-12-10-5-9 in a smaller unit.

6th: 1/2-6-3/8…G2 Appalachian Stakes…The first of 5 straight Stakes event today. This one to be contested at 1 mile over the turf course. Does it stay on? If so, I go strong with Nitrogen (1) — as my first “Key Play of the Day.” This 3YO daughter of Medaglia d’Oro is coming off two straight wins this year and both in Stakes company. Ran a very forceful 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup last Fall, too. She is 2-1 in the ML. Vixen (2) has won two in a row, as well, and comes in off a victory in the G3 Herecomesthebride Stakes at GP. In 6 lifetime starts on the sod, this one has gone 3-1-1. Likes to stalk, just the same as our top pick. Could be a great battle in the stretch. I bet the 1 across the road and double down on the win wager. I will key the 1 over/under the 2-6-3-8 in the exactas. More with the 2 than the others. 

7th: 2-5-10/6/3/8-4/1-7…G3 Commonwealth Stakes…This is a 7-furlong dirt sprint and I will go with Montalcino (2), for trainer Cherie DeVaux. This 4YO Take Charge Indy colt has raced here once before and scored a 6-length win. Has two races at this unusual distance, too, and both of those have turned up wins. Deserves to be the horse to beat. Nutella Fella (5) is 12-1 in the ML and could turn out to be the “Upset Special”  of the day. Nearly won the G1 Woody Stephens last year at Saratoga and did win the Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay the last time out. Won the G1 Hopeful last year, too. Has closing-sprinter speed in the lane. Be interesting to see how this track plays to these types. Traditionally, this track favors speedy types. Extra Anejo (10) is a son of Into Mischief who cost $1.350 million and has flashed bouts of speed in the past. Flavien Prat takes the reins here. Look out. I bet the 2-5 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 6 in two smaller units.

8th: 2-8-6/4/7-1/5…G1 Madison Stakes…This 7-furlong sprint is for the girls, and I go with Emery (2). This 4YO daughter of More Than Ready has not been worse than 2nd in the last 6 outings. She has a career record of 5-2-0 in 8 starts. She has lots of credentials to like here. Lots of them. Mystic Lake (8) has tons of speed and if the track is favoring these types … watch out. Has already won over $1.033 million in purses and has 7 lifetime wins. Knows how to find the “circle.” Scylla (6) is going to be the heavily bet favorite for many. This 5YO daughter of Tapit could cross the $1 million line in earnings today, too. Loves it here. Ran 3rd in the G3 Doubledogdare Stakes here last year as the favorite. I bet the 2-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4 in two smaller units. 

9th: 2-3-10/1-4/5/6-9…G2 Shakertown Stakes…This is the 5.5-furlong specialty Stakes for the older ones. I go with Our Shot (2), who has 2 wins and a second in 4 starts here lifetime. Ran over a “good” track here last year in this same Stakes event. Ran 4th, but beaten only 11/4 lengths. Was very wide in that one. Should be better off here. Arzak (3) won this race a year ago and has 2 wins in 3 starts here, and a third to boot. But, in a way, I think this one may be better suited for AW surfaces. Still, all in all, a tough closer. Coppola (10) is parked outside and that won’t be an easy task. Has raced here 3 other times. Never hit the board. My numbers say “bet.” My head says “no bet.” I bet the 2-3 across the board and then box the 2-3 solidly in the exactas. I will key the 2-3 over/under the 10-1-4-5 in two smaller units. 

10th: 1-6-4/3/5/7-2…G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes…This may be the last major prep for this year’s 151st Kentucky Derby. And, it is a stellar field to line up for the challenge. I go to the rail and team up with River Thames (1), who I liked in the G2 Fountain of Youth along with the winner that day. Nice exacta. This one has done little wrong. Two wins to start the career and a neck loss in a G2 to this year’s top Derby contender. Has speed and that should help on this track. Tough out here. Chancer McPatrick (6) desperately needed that last race, while finishing 2nd in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby. Look for more here. Owen Almighty (4) has tons of speed and may try to take them all gate to wire in this one, like he did in the Tampa Bay Derby. But this sire line is more likely to throw a sprinter type, and that may hurt this one’s chances the longer they line up these races. All in all, has 5 top-2 finishes in 6 career starts. Can’t toss. I bet the 1 to win/place and double/triple down on the win wager. I key the 1 over/under the 6-4-3-5-7-2. More on the 6-4-3 than the rest. 

11th: 1/2-3-8/6-(13)/5-4…The final race on the card and a “Key Play of the Day” Easter egg we find. I love Seaport Lane (1) in this spot. The son of Speighstown is trained by DeVaux, who is winning with .20% of the last 296 who are away from the gate this long. Has tremendous speed option and will have to stretch out to 7 furlongs here. That could be a test, but the work on March 27 was spot on. Could win. Should win. But needs to be tuned up to perfection.. The post could be a detriment, as well. Especially on an “off track.” Here’s hoping that he can break sharp. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I key the 1 over/under the 2-3-8-6-13 in the exactas. More with the 2-3-8

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene