McLean’s Selections for Kentucky Downs on “Closing Day” — Wednesday, Sept. 11

(Stats to be updated)

Here’s our looks on the final day of the Kentucky Downs’ live meet for 2024. It has been a doozy. To be sure. The purses. The crowds. The horses. The memories. The opportunities. It has been unreal.

Let’s hope we can close with a bang. Until another trip around the sun brings us right back to one of the most amazing ovals in all of the America’s.

1st: (13)-(16)/8-9-1/12-6-7/4-5-(14)/3…My top pick in this ole’ lid-lifter comes from the AE List and unlikely to draw into the starting gate, with all the demand to try to win a race at this oasis in the drought fields of West Kentucky. If Hoff (13) gets in, though, I take a look here.  Training great for a HOF trainer and an asshole owner. But still training great. If we draw in, too, I would just love a showdown with the owner of the 13. We have #16 — Daguerre (16). And I will do a side bet with old Clark Brewster, the owner of the 13, if the has the stomach for it. Our #16 straight up against his #13. But, then again, I doubt that, too. Maybe we get another chance on another day. Soon. If neither of these two draw in, the drama gets a lot less intense. Right? Does for me. I will ante up with Captain Fancy (8).  This 2YO colt ran a good one over the grass at Ellis Park, but that was against softer competition. Will need to utter more here, but the barn is having a very solid year and knows its way to the winner’s circle with all types of runners. So Grand (9) is a colt who ran poorly at Ellis Park. Off slow that day and this is a toss for me. Trainer wins with .22% when adding blinkers for the first time and with .23% overall this year. Gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. to take the reins on this one. Interesting. Very interesting. I bet the 16, if we get in. Across the board. Up and down. Key in the exactas. If not? I bet the 8-9 across the board and then box the 8-9-1 in the exactas. I will key the 8-9-1 over/under 12-6 in two smaller units. 

2nd: 2-4-(14)/11-12-9/7-8-1-5/(16)…Material Witness (2) has a ton of speed and should love the speed bias this track has had all throughout the 9 days of live action. Make the lead and the rail at the 1/4-pole? Gone. Most of the time. Can’t catch. No matter what. This one is likely to be right there for an experienced and talented grass rider. Growth Rate (4) comes from the barn of Chad Brown. While maybe not a model citizen, the trainer knows how to coach a grass runner. Dangerous here. I bet the 2-4 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers that get in the starting gate. I will key the 2-4 over/under the 14-11-12-9-7 in two smaller units. 

3rd: (13)-2/7-9/10-1-6-(15)/3-(14)/(16)-11…Another race where the AE List looks salty. If he gets in, I go with Tunisian Spring (13). But that is unlikely. So be it. If out, I land squarely on Demolition Duke (2). This one has run 5 times this year and has 3 seconds and a third. Getting closer and closer to that wire in front, though. Could be right here with one of the best riders in the world getting the reins back again. Barn wins with .21% when returning as a beaten favorite. I’m in. I bet the 2 across the board and then double/triple down on the win wager. I will key the 2 over/under the 13-7-9-10-1-6 in the exactas. More with the 13-7-9 than the rest. 

4th: 2-10/8-1-3-7/12/6-5/4…Never Really Know (2) could be a tough out here for one of the best young trainers in the game today. Ran a huge 2nd on the turf at Saratoga last time out. Caught a firm ground that day and nearly wired them. Has the right pace setting and gets the same rider back. Look out here. Mambo Queen (10) is another from the barn of Chad Brown. Has not won a race this meet. Yet. Could be here with the first timer. Worked very well on Aug. 30. Chance. I bet the 2 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 2-10 in the exactas. I will also key the 2-10 over/under the 8-1-3-7-12 in two smaller units. 

5th: (13)-3-2/1/4/(15)-8/7-9-10/5…Another AE List horse here? If Dominican Pioneer (13) gets in, he gets my money. Has a 3-2-0 mark in 9 grass starts and looks solid in this spot. Unlikely to get in, though, and that means we look for options. First option is Double Clutch (3). This one won just two starts ago at Churchill Downs and against top competition. Gets the Lasix back here today and that could mean a lot. I use. Dude N Colorado (2) is very speedy and that’s a useful commodity here. May improve with this shorter distance, too. I bet the 13 if in. I bet the 3 if not. I bet them to win/place/show and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas, whomever that is. I bet those 3 over/under the 1-4 in smaller units. 

6th: 6-9/5-7-10-(13)-3/1/8…Fleming (6) is a Godolphin homebred and trained by Brendan Walsh. Tough combo right there. This 2YO son of More Than Ready looked really good at Ellis Park on debut. Should be better here. Barn wins with .23% in the 2nd grass race. Top rider up. Reverse Merger (9) is 8-1 in the ML and could muster a big run here with a solid grass rider up for the first time. Barn wins with .36% of the last 11 when routing for the 2nd time. Big number. I bet the 6-9 across the board and then box these two sternly in the exactas. I will key the 6-9 over/under the 5-7-10-13-3 in two smaller units. 

7th: 7-2/1-8/3-10//6-9-(15)-12…Justifiable Belle (7) is 8-1 in the ML and is my “Upset Special of the Day.” This 4YO daughter of Justify has won two in a row and gets the same rider back in the bike. In 9 grass starts? Has a 3-2-1 mark. Looks very good at some nice prices. She’s Lookin Lucky (2) has run only twice on the sod and has a win and a third in those two requests. Has speed will travel. And, very well here, mind you. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 7-2 over/under the 1-8-3-10 in two smaller units. 

8th: 1-7/9-2-5/6-4//8…Blackwood Distilling Nashville Gold Cup Stakes…This is a 21/16-mile marathon. That’s right. Over 2 miles. Up and down hills and dales and very firm footing. Long ways. I go with The Grey Wizard (1). Won the last time out and that was for a mere 11/2-miles. Has run a 2-miler before. Won at Saratoga in June. Looks the best of the long-distance haulers here. I bet the 1 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 1-7 in the exactas. I will also key the 1 over/under the 7-9-2-5-6-4 in two smaller units. 

9th: 6-9/12/8-5/3/1-2-11/7-10…Pepsi Dueling Grounds Oaks Invitational…This is the last Stakes event of the meet and will boost a purse of $1.6 million. Unreal. Right? I go with Kathynmarissa (6) in this 15/16-mile distance specialty. This 3YO filly ships in from Saratoga, where she just nearly won a 13/16-mile event called the G2 Saratoga Oaks Invitational. Just missed with the same rider back here. Has never been off the board in grass races. Tough out here. Pin Up Betty (9) nearly won the G3 Pucker Up at Ellis Park. Ran a 4th in the Belmont Park Oaks Invitational. Winner of that one came right back to win the next out. Before that won two in a row, including the G3 Regret Stakes at Churchill Downs. Will be banging on the door here, too. I bet the 6-9 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 6-9 over/under the 12-8-5-3-1 in two smaller units.

10th: (15)-1-2/5-6-10/4-7-11-9…The meet’s finale and I go with Yesterday (15), if this 2YO filly draws in from the AE List. Probably won’t, like all the others. But if she does? I go. If not…I lean on the railbirds — led by Pure Breeze (1). This one comes in off a poor performance here on Sept. 1. Just didn’t bang it out very good and was very wide. Goes to Irad Ortiz, Jr. here for this one. OK. Maybe someone knows something? Isle of Capri (2) is owned by one of the most successful partnerships in recent memory and history. Makes the first start here off a series of great works. Gets a top rider. I’m in. I bet the 2 — take note — across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 2 over/under the 15-1-5-6-10-4-7-11-9 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene