McLean’s Selections For Kentucky Downs on Sunday, Sept. 1 — With Comments

(The family)

(Stats to be updated with this week’s activities)

Here’s our looks at Kentucky Downs for this Sunday “Fun Day,” with the horses and the hills and dales. Take a picnic lunch and throw a blanket out. It’s fun for the entire day and the entire family.

1st: 1-6-9/4/2/7-3…Mean Eileen (1) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter at the big oval over the hills and dales of Franklin, KY. This 2YO filly ran well over the mud, when it was rained off the grass at Saratoga on Aug. 8. (Can we get some rain here, please?) Went right to the front that day and now gets a more aggressive rider in the saddle. Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters — but no turf winners. Yet. Trainer wins with .19% on first try on the sod. Tiger Division (6) may run much better with the 2nd try overall and the 2nd on the grass. Barn wins with .22% on 2nd starts and this one came with a run late last time out. A better start will make this one interesting. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I key the top 3 over/under the 4.

2nd: 11-2-3/(15)/5/4-6-8-12/9-10…Leslie’s Star (11) gets the first career start here for a HOF trainer. Working great at Churchill Downs and looks primed for a big outing. Gets a rider who has won with a whopping .55% of the last 11 ups for this barn. Wow number. Wow. I’m all in. Risuko (2) has the experience edge and should improve here. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers in that debut have come back to win already. Hi Barbie (3) goes for one of the hottest trainers on the planet. Filly bred for the sod and gets one of the best riders to ever throw a leg over one here. I bet the 11-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 15-5 in two smaller units. 

3rd: 8-7-4/5//1-3-6…Avenue Niel (8) started the career across the pound and really was quite successful. Ran 6 times in France and hit the board each time. Here, this 5YO mare has done the same. Been out four times and has a record of 1-1-2. Gets a top rider here and the barn knows grass runners very well — winning with .19% over the last 1,653 grass runners. Enough for me. I bet the 8 across the board and double down on the win wager. I box the top 3 in the exactas and then key the 8 over/under the 7-4-5 in two smaller units. 

4th: 5-2/3-7/4-8/6-9…Axthelm (5) has run in two Stakes events over the last two outs, but gets back to more comfortable counterparts here. Last time in allowance company this one was 3rd at KEE. In 14 grass starts, this one has a 3-0-4 mark. Ambivalent (2) has hit the board in four of the last 5 starts and the only miss was a 5th when beaten just 21/2 lengths. Has hit the board in 8 of 10 grass starts. My bet goes here. I bet the 2 — take note — across the board and then box the 5-2 in the exactas. I will key the 5-2 over/under the 3-7-4-8 in two smaller units. 

5th: (14)-11-10/6-3/(13)-12-9-2/1-4-5…If Dominican Pioneer (14) draws in from the AE List, then I go here for the top selection and wagering option. Toss the last out and this one looks very tough. But…If not in? Gray’s Fable (11) is a good option. This 9YO veteran has made 34 starts on the sod. Has a mark of 7-5-3. But 0-for-2 here. Could find this company much easier than the G3 Mint Million he drew a year ago, though. Will be running late and that’s against the grain here this meet. Yes This Time (10) has more speed and stalking ability and could be better spotted here. Has a 2nd and 3rd here in two previous tries. Nice. Take note. I bet the 10 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 10 over/under the 14-11-6-3-12 in two smaller units. 

6th: 3/4-7-(15)-8/1-5-9-12/2-(13)…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here with Warlander (3). This 2YO son of Kitten’s Joy ran a huge one at Saratoga in the debut effort. Lost by 1/2 lengths after pressing the pace throughout the 11/16-mile distance. jBarn wins with .22% out of the last 65 making the 2nd career start on the sod. Love this one. Love. I bet the 3 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 3 over/under th3 4-7-15-8-1-5-9-12 in the exactas. More with the 4-7-15-8 than the rest. 

7th: 4-(16)/9-(13)-(14)/2/1-7-12…Satin Blue (4) could move up to a “Key Play” as well if the #16 does not make the gate. This 3YO daughter of The Factor ran a huge one last out at Saratoga, closing from last to be 2nd at the wire. Stumbled badly at the start of a 5.5 furlong race is normally an eliminator. But this one found a way. Give her a good start here? And? Look out. I bet the 4 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will key the 4 over/under the 16-9-13-14-2-1-7 in the exactas. More with the 16-9 than the rest. 

8th: 5-2-8/11/1-6-7-(13)/4/12-(14)…Vesture (5) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” This one is listed at 8-1 in the Brisnet.com ML. Has speed and that ingredient has worked well so far this meet. Could get out in front and the others may never be able to find again. Give that speed a big nod here. Common Defense (2) will run for the first time since 5th to Catching Freedom in the G2 Louisiana Derby. Ran 2nd to Timberlake in the G2 Rebel Stakes, too. Didn’t make the KY Derby field, but he got a rest break and now returns to try grass for the first time. Dam of this one has thrown a turf winner. That bodes well. If this 3YO takes to the grass? Will present a problem late. I bet the 5-2 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will double down on the 5-2 in the exactas. I will  also key the 5-2 over/under the 8-11-1-6-7 in two smaller units. 

9th: 7-6/1-5-(15)-10/3-8…Dataman (7) goes for one of the best turf trainers in the land. Wins with .17% of the last 1,133 grass runners. Brings the jockey along from the East Coast to handle to reins. Has won 4 of 10 previous grass tries, with a 2nd to boot. Closer will need to get an early nudge to be serious at the wire. Smokin’ T (6) has more speed and is a better stalker. Gets the regular rider, who just so happens to be a HOFer. This one has run here before. Was 3rd in last year’s G3 Mint Million. Easier spot here. I bet the 6 — take note — across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the 7-6 in the exactas and then key the 7-6 over/under the 1-5-15-10 in two smaller units. 

10th: 5-2-7/9-1/11//3-6-8…National Thoroughbred League Juvenile Sprint…Under Who’s Radar (5) won the inaugural race at Saratoga and now the NY-bred will face open company and stakes company for the first time. This one has speed and that aids the cause here. Gets the same rider and could be long gone by the time the wire nears. Pharoah’s Dynasty (2) won in NY last time out, too. Has been off since June. Has speed to rival the top pick. Interesting to see who prevails in that bid. Black Forza (7) could benefit from the pace duel and be a tough out here in the first U.S. try. Euro looks tough in the late strides. I bet the 7 across the board and then double down on the win wager. I will box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 7 over/under the 5-2-9-1-11 in two smaller units. 

11th: 7-8/4-5/10/9/2-6…Padiddle (7) gets the nod in the day’s finale. Has the right stuff to be very tough in this spot. The trouble? The rider has won with only .05% of 173 mounts this year. Has won two of the last 10 for this trainer, but still? Seriously? With all of these riders in the jockey room? Ugh. The Jackal (8) may be the beneficiary of this situation. This 4YO is trained and will be ridden by two HOFers. I go here. I bet the 8 — take note — to win/place/show and then double down on the win wager. I box the 7-8 in the exactas. I will key the 7-8 over/under the 4-5-10-9 in two smaller units. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene