|2019 Overall 1,561||1,561/543-561-691|
|Win % of Top Pick||34.79%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||38.33%|
|2019 Top Pick in the Money –1,013 of 1,561||64.89%|
|Top Selection ITM / TP Holiday 66-120||55.00%|
|Top Selection Win / TP Holiday 40-120||33.33%|
|“Key Horses” @ TP Holiday 11-6-1-0||54.55%|
|“Key Horses” in 2019 226-89-44-22||39.38%|
The final day of 2019. And, Turfway Park will kick off a festive Holiday special card today to point an exclamation point on the year and this season’s Holiday Meet. Post time will begin at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Here’s a look at our selections:
1st: 11-6-10/5-1-8/9-3-4/7…Betweenhereandcool (11) has raced over this all-weather strip 6 times in his career. Has won 5 of those events. This year, alone, he has 5 wins and 2 seconds in 9 outings. Will make the second start for this trainer, who hits with .44% of the 16 starters who fit that category. Rider is off to a solid start here this meet, and has won with .33% for this barn in the last 40 rides for the outfit. Adds up for me. Strong. Unscathed (6) will drop in class for a barn that hits with .21% of those getting this kind of a plunge to the bottom. Has 8 wins in 15 starts over an AW surface, and a top, veteran rider returns to the saddle. Look for more today. Old Timer’s Day (10) is another getting a lot of class relief. If you toss out the last, this one had two wins in a row working. Gets the saddle from a new barn operation today. The barn hits with .15% of those making the debut for the new connections. Interesting. I bet the 11 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 11 over/under the 6-10-5-1-8-9-3-4-7 in two smaller versions.
2nd: 4-5/7-3-10…Brews Toonie Toss (4) is a veteran of the AW surfaces, and in 33 tries over the plastic, this 6YO mare has a record of 5-6-5. Has 2 seconds in 4 tries here, too. Has not raced since March, and the barn shows a 0-for-1 with horses away from the gate this long. Love the work here on Dec. 21, though. Looks like she could be solid, if ready off the bench. Lady Greatness (5) will start for a new barn outfit today, and the trainer hits with a nice .23% with first-timers. Work here on Dec. 21 was spot on, and this one picks up a nice pilot for the journey. Still looking for the first win this year, though, after 12 starts. Concerning. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in one exacta. I will key the 4 over/under the “all button” in two smaller versions.
3rd: 7-2/10-3-12-11/4-1-8-(13)…She’s Alotta Woman (7) is my first Upset Special of the Day. This 5YO Big Brown mare has a 1-1-2 mark in 11 starts this year and has a 1-1-0 resume after 6 starts here. But…In April, this one ran a huge one at KEE, and that was on the heels of a really nice win at TP in March. If she can recapture that glory? Much the best here. I will take a shot on the back-class angle. Tenacious Sally (2) has raced over this strip 12 times, and has experienced some high success. Has 5 wins, 2 seconds and 3 thirds to show for the efforts. Gets a break since July, and the barn does hit with .10% off this kind of a layup. Worth a shot. I bet the 7-2 across the board and then box those 2 in the exacta. I will key the 7-2 over/under the 10-3-12-11-4-1 in two smaller versions.
4th: 11-12-9/10-8-3-7/(13)-1-6-(14)/4-5…Shanghai’s Dream (11) will make his first start ever over an AW surface today, but does have 3 thirds in 6 starts over the traditional dirt tracks. Has faced some good ones, too. Barn does hit with .22% of those making this surface switch, and gets a solid rider for this one. Work over this surface on Dec. 21 was solid. My pick. Mo Mosa (12) will make the career debut today for the barn of Mike Maker, who has won with .22% of the first 27 starters here this Holiday Meet. Jockey hasten 5 times in the last 11 races for this barn here, and the work here on Dec. 21 was a bullet move. Watch out at some odds. Mister Carson (9) is 15-1 in the ML odds and could add some spice to the odds rack here, too. Go back to the race at Sept. 28 — two back. Ran a huge one then and the runner-up came right back to win the next out. Chance. I bet the 11-12 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 11-12 over/under the 9-10-8-3-7-1 in two smaller versions.
5th: 7-8-1/9-4-2-3/12-(14)…Prairie Bayou Stakes…Blueridge Traveler (7) gets the nod in this very well-balanced field for the Stakes event. This 5YO son of To Honor and Serve comes in off a third at Churchill Downs on Nov. 28. Lost to a very good one in Blended Citizen. Now, returns here as a beaten favorite. Barn hits with .23% of those switching from the traditional dirt to the AW, and with .13% of those that come back as a beaten favorite, too. Gets a rider who has hit with .25% in the last 12 starts for this barn operation. Big Dollar Bill (8) has not hit the board in 3 starts this year, but has faced some good ones in those events, too. Trainer has a 1-1-1 mark in just 6 starts here this meet, but gets the meet’s top rider in the saddle. Did win at Saratoga in 2018, and looks to be getting better with each start off a very long layup. Dangerous. Patriot Drive (1) ran in a Stakes event at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 7 and ran well to be 4th. Was second to Combatant the time before. The work at GP on Dec. 22 was very good and the barn has gone 5-0-1 in the last 13 starts here. Louder Than Bombs (3) and Guest Suite (2) both have big shots in here, too. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I will key the 7 over/under the 8-1-9-4-2-3 in two smaller versions.
6th: 1-2/3-6-4/5…Olly Wonder (1) is the 7-5 ML favorite for this one, and the 2YO son of Will Take Charge should get a good run with a clean break from the rail. In the debut back in September, broke from the rail. Won by nearly 8 that day. Barn hits with .27% of those running over the AW surface. Gets the meet’s top rider up. adds up for me. Artemus Eagle (2) has run very well since getting equipped with the blinkers two starts back. I can forgive the last race, which was the first time over the AW. Bumped at the start of that one. Never got to muster the lead speed in that one. Watch for more today. I bet the 1-2 across the board and then box those 2 solidly in one exacta. i will key the 1-2 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller versions.
7th: 2-9/1-8-7-4/5-3-6…Father G (2) comes from the barn of the talented, young trainer Thomas Drury. In 3 career starts, has 2 wins and a third. Love the win at Churchill Downs in September and ran very well against winners in the first try on Nov. 20. Gun It, the winner in that one, is well bred and well respected. Big chance here. Jumper (9) is a roommate of our top pick. Has won 2 in a row and the barn wins with .30% of those in allowance company. Son of City Zip figures to convert to the AW very well. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the 2-9 in one exacta. I will key the 2-9 over/under the 1-8-7-4-5-3-6 in two smaller versions.
8th: 7-1/10-11-8/6-2…Go for Sherrie (7) has won two in a row in absolute romps. In 9 starts this year, has 3 wins and 2 seconds. Barn hits with .26% outhouse that won the last race in a claimer. Has early speed. Has middle-race speed. And, can run on at the end, too. Will see if he can cut it on the AW now. My solid choice. Muntij (1) won three races back and has a nice 4-1-1 mark in 10 starts this year. In 7 starts over the AW, this 7YO veteran has 2 seconds on the board. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-1 in one exacta. I will key the 7 over/under the 1-10-11-8-6-2 in two smaller versions.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene