McLean’s Selections — With Comments — for Churchill Downs on Sunday, June 8 — G3 Matt Winn Stakes Day

(Stats to be updated)

Here’s our looks at Churchill Downs for this Sunday “Fun Day” in the big city of Louis-Town. Today features a huge Pick 5 carryover and the G3 Matt Winn Stakes — which is the best G3 in the country and the best race this weekend not called the Belmont Stakes.

1st: 4-3/7/9-10-5/1…(Abbreviated Comments Until We Get to the G3 Matt Winn…)…Zeca Diabo (4) gets the nod in the ole’ lid-lifter on this Sunday. This 5YO gelding has run here 5 times before and has a record of 1-1-2. That one win represents the only win in 18 career starts, though. Ugh. Rewire (3) has not done any better, though. He is 1-22 in his lifetime. That does not scream confidence, either. Hasten (7) has gone 1-1-1 in just 8 career starts for trainer Mark Simms, who has a 1-1-0 mark in just 3 starts this meet. I like these numbers better, but the rider — Gabriel Saez — is having an awful year, winning just 7% of 220 starts. Goes from Jose Ortiz to this? Ugh. I bet the 7 across the board — take note — and then box the 4-3-7 in the exactas. 

2nd: 1/10/4-6-9…The first “Key Play of the Day” comes here in this MCL event for the older colts. I go with the Brad Cox-trained colt Box Office (1), who drops from a near miss 2nd in a MCL event for 2.5 times more money. Barn wins with .27% when dropping this much at one time. Has speed and should be able to last this distance against the likes of these. Gets an improve in the saddle and should be salty in this spot. How many claims will be dropped on this one? Over and under is 15. I bet the 1 to win/place and double down on the win wager. I key the 1 over (only) the 10-4-6-9 in the exactas. 

3rd: 6-10/4/1-5-9/7…The first grass race of the day and I go to the stylish pedigree of Moon Channel (6), a 3YO son of English Channel and out of the Ghostzapper mare. Love this turf breeding. Has run two very solid races over the sod and should improve enough to be very tough in this spot. Very tough. Vivaldi (10) is trained by the best turf conditioner in these United States and comes off two 2nds in a row. Will be a tough out, too. I bet the 6 across the board and then box the 6-10 sternly in the exactas. I will key the 6-10 over/under the 4 in two smaller units. 

4th: 3-9-5/6-7/4-1/2…Ivory and Ebony (3) is a 3YO filly owned by West Point Thoroughbreds, who spent $105,000 to purchase this one at a 2YO sale last year. Hs run only twice. Last time out was encouraging enough to give this one the edge here, with just a little improvement expected. Love the rider choice here. Could be tough. Hitherto (9) is a first timer for the barn of Brad Cox, who is off to a very sluggish start to this meet — winning at about 1/2 the rate that he is used to. This daughter of Street Boss has trained well up a Turfway Park for this debut. Gets a top rider for this first chance. I bet the 3-9 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. 

5th: 5-1-6/3/2/4-7…Leslie’s Lady Stakes…This is a 7-furlong Stakes event for the 3YO fillies and what a nice field has been assembled here by racing secretary Ben Huffman. I go with Vodka With a Twist (5). And, why not. Has run here twice before. Won them both for a top trainer, who is winning at a .22% clip this meet. Has run in five straight Graded Stakes and has hit the board in each of them. Look out at a square price here. Love. Love. Eclatant (1) sped off to a suicide pace last out and never had a chance to hold on in the G2 Eight Belles Stakes. If Luis Saez can throttle her back some here? Big shot, too. I bet the 5 across the board and then double/triple down on the win bet. I will box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will also key the top 3 over/under the 3 in two smaller units. 

6th: (14)-3-(15)/6-8-12/2-(13)-4/10-11/1…This is a 5.5 furlong sprint over the sod and what a field for this rapid-fire heater. The top pick for me will need some luck before the race — just to draw in. But if she does, I will go with Mae Town (14) and trainer Brian Lynch, one of the most underrated conditioners in this sport. This one won the last time out and has run three good ones to begin the career. Should be able to break well and get over from the outside. If she doesn’t gain entry to the gate, then I revert to Mighty Eriu (3). This one has run in two Stakes in a row and has been outclassed. But the drop back here should be good enough to give this Irish-bred a shot. I bet the 14 across the board and double down on the win wager. If not in, I go with the 3 across the board. I box the top 3 numbers that get in the race. 

7th: 11-2/1/3-7/10…Honest Al (11) draws the outside post, but the first time gelding should be OK in this 6-furlong sprint occasion. Drops back in distance here and can better use the speed. Like these connections and the rider has been red hot of late — going 6-3-0 in the last 22. I’m all in here. I bet the 11 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 11-2-1 in the exactas. I will also key the 11 over/under the 2-1-3-7-10 in two smaller units. 

8th: 7-1/2-5/6-3/4…G3 Matt Winn Stakes…Unlike the G1 Kentucky Derby — which was served up on the first Saturday in May — this major Stakes event for the 3YOs does NOT have the speed that the biggest 3YO Stakes in the world featured. In fact, this event — which features five horses that ran for those beautiful roses — only has one true speed horse in the event. That is East Avenue (7). If rider Luis Saez, who along with Junior Alvarado is the best two riders in this country today, can control and harness that speed? Look out. This one may be gone. Long gone. And, if that is the case, he may be able to hold off the late charge and rallies of the best two horses in this race — Final Gambit (2) and Burnham Square (5). Those two will be rolling late and may be able to get there if East Avenue is too head strong and rips off too fast in the early stages. Gaming (1) comes out of the G2 Pat Day Mile and now will get some more ground. For his sake, he would prefer a little more dry dirt and fast conditions. He may have enough speed to hold off the late charges, too. Just trying to figure out how this one plays out — even though the best two horses will be coming very late. I bet the 7 across the board and double down on the win wager. I will box the 7-2-5 in one exacta box (take note) and I will also box the 7-1-2-5 in the trifecta box. I love Final Gambit (2) and, depending on his odds, I may try a little 7-2 box, as well.

9th: 12-5-6/11-2/1-9-7-8…The day’s finale is a long-distance endurance test over the sod and I go to the outside and load up with Oscar Season (12). This 4YO colt comes in off a near miss 3rd here last time out. This is the 3rd start off the layoff and the barn wins with .21% of the last 139 with those types. Has a 2nd and a 3rd in two starts here and could find the promise land with this stretch out. Gets the HOF grass rider in the saddle. Flying dismount may be headed our way. I bet the 12 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. 

Good Luck & All the Best / Gene