Prudence finished a closing 7th (nipped a nose, another nose and a head for fourth and just 31/2 lengths for the win), but, in my opinion, could have and should have been placed better. Rider Brian Hernandez had the filly positioned at the back of the pack throughout the early going, and as they came out of the turn, he had negotiated his filly in behind a wall of horses. Absolutely, no where to go.
Finally, after getting Prudence to the farthest outside of any horse, she grinded towards the leaders. With very little urging from her rider, she began to click towards the front, making it all the way up to fifth and just a bob away from fourth.
It is questionable whether or not she was good enough to catch the front two leaders or not, but after being compromised throughout the stretch run, we shall never know, for sure.
All in all, it was a very poor performance by a jockey who is capable of much better. Very poor, indeed.
Prudence, a 4YO filly by Pleasanty Perfect and out of the Mr. Prospector mare Hard to Copy, is in the 3rd race at Kentucky Downs today. The post time is schedule for 2:23 p.m. CT. If you can, take a good look at this one. I like her chances a lot. For several reasons.
- Prudence had a horrible, 6-wide trip in her last out at Ellis Park and lost all chance to have a meaningful run at the leaders that day. Knowing that, jockey Brian Hernandez did not abuse his mount and did the best he could to save some gas in the tank. With a better route today, she should be very well prepared by trainer Rusty Arnold.
- Two races back, she was beaten by a very nice mare by the name of Beauly, who ran in the big filly and mare stakes race here yesterday and was beaten by Miss Temple City. The show horse in that race, though, was Res Ipsa — who was one of my “Upset Specials” at KY Downs this week that won and paid a handsome $17.60 to win. Prudence was only a 1/2-length behind her in an allowance races at Churchill Downs in May and anything close to that run will make her really tough in this spot.
- Hard to Copy, the dam of Prudence, was a nice allowance winner at Santa Anita in her race career. But Prudence’s grand dam was Hot Novel — who was a Multiple Graded Stakes winner, with 14 ITM finishes out of 17 starts. She won the G3 Santa Ynez Stakes at Santa Anita; the B. Thoughtful Stakes at Santa Anita; and the Rancho Bernardo Stakes at Del Mar. She has the family tree with deep roots.
- She worked 4Fs at Churchill Downs on Sept. 4, in a nice blowout for this race.
- I think she has the pedigree and the form to go today.
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