“The Pressbox’s Kentucky Derby Rankings:” Renegade Takes Over #1 Spot

(Renegade wins the G1 Arkansas Derby after a flash of late speed / Photo by Coady Media)

Well, well, well…

We have some serious movement along the “Road to the Kentucky Derby.”

We have some serious improvements and rallies.

We have some serious disappointments and question marks appear like chicken pox pelts overnight.

We have some major races coming up this weekend.

We still have some major decisions to be made.

It’s called Kentucky Derby Fever.

Stay tuned. Be ready. Things are moving fast, including some horses and some decisions.

First, the improvements and ladder climbers:

Renegade has suddenly become the most impressive horse of the current 3-year-olds. His win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in Tampa earlier this year was easy enough and worthy of some attention and eye-catching.

But that was nothing.

Trainer Todd Pletcher turned some heads when he decided to skip the Florida Derby with this one and ship to Hot Springs, AR and try the G1 Arkansas Derby. That’s not a normal path for Pletcher, who keeps a huge stable in South Florida at Palm Beach Downs and regularly runs at both Tampa and Gulfstream Park.

Yet, it was a wise decision. Renegade came with a powerful stretch run that blew away his competition and blew away the minds of some handicappers and prognosticators, as well.

The colt has the pedigree to be at the top of any list. After all, he is by the great sire Into Mischief and out of a Curlin mare.

The colt has the connections to be dangerous going into this Kentucky Derby, as well, trained by Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.

The colt has earned the top spot. And, it will be interesting to see if he can translate that talent on the biggest of stages that will be forthcoming. Churchill Downs and the Derby are a little bigger deal than the Sam F. Davis and Tampa Bay.

Commandment has suddenly emerged as a major contender for this year’s Derby, as well. But unlike Renegade, this son of Into Mischief has always been one that has commanded both attention and speculation of greatness.

The talent started to emerge in full view of the public’s eye when he won his first trip around two turns in the G2 Fountain of Youth. But, to be honest, the talent was somewhat lost when the colt got an absolute gift trip and simply out-ran a talented horse graduating from a MSW win.

It was good enough. But it was not earth moving.

Until last Saturday. That’s when Commandment, upon command, ran down longshot The Puma in the final inches to win the G1 Florida Derby. Now, that was impressive. And, that kind of talent will show well when he gets back “home” to Louisville for trainer Brad Cox.

Look out.

Chief Wallabee continues to impress, as well. Although this son of Constitution did not run as a 2YO — and that still is a “thing” around here — he has come with a serious charge to put himself in the mix for this year’s Derby. After breaking the MSW, “The Chief” nearly pulled the upset of the year in the Fountain of Youth. Then, despite running his 3rd race in just three months, Chief Wallabee proved that he is now becoming Chief “Want to Be.”

Although he didn’t have the same late push as Commandment, the inexperience may have played a role in prohibiting him from getting past The Puma and the winner.

With any improvement at all? Serious contender come First Saturday in May.

After all, the horse is trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado.

The Puma may be the biggest shock of the Spring, so far. Since Jan. 10, he has run 4 times, after not having run as a 2YO, either. He has hit the board in each of those events and nearly pulled off the upset of the year in G1 Florida Derby. It will be interesting to see how much juice this one has left after so many races so early this year.

This one bears inspection upon arrival.

Now, the more troubling hiccups of the week, if not the year:

Nearly, our #1 choice throughout the year, was not nearly up to speed in last week’s Florida Derby. Oh, the speed was there and that was OK. But the stamina sure was not.

And, from the outside looking in and an observer of many horse races throughout the years, it certainly appeared that Nearly was simply short on conditioning by trainer Todd Pletcher. After winning three races in a row and overcoming major obstacles in two of those, Pletcher and his ownership group decided to skip the Fountain of Youth and simply train up to the Florida Derby.

And, for awhile, it looked like that was going to work out OK.

After all, the son of Not This Time made the lead in the stretch and had the look for a major contender to push his way on to the wire first.

But just when the colt should have kicked into higher gear, he kicked it off. Instead of striding out, his stride shortened.

Instead of impressing and stamping, he disappointed and regressed.

He did finish a 4th, but that is not the issue. Now, the issue becomes whether or not the colt will have the necessary points to get in the 20-horse field for this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Personally, I still think Nearly can recover and become a major factor in the 11/4-mile Derby. Of all the horses that ran last week, I think he needed the race and exercise more than any of them. After all, if you will remember back just a year ago, Sovereignty didn’t win the Florida Derby, either.

But Pletcher has a lot of work to do to get this horse back and into the Derby, after what appears to be a lack of serious works leading into the Florida Derby.

This Week’s Action:

We have three major prep races still on the billing, and each of these are likely to produce contenders for the Kentucky Derby. Maybe, even, major contenders. On Saturday, the G1 Blue Grass Stakes will be run in Lexington. On Saturday, the G1 Santa Anita Derby will be run in Arcadia, CA. On Saturday, the G2 Wood Memorial will be run in New York.

It will be interesting to watch and see what Further Ado does in the Blue Grass, or Potente does in the Santa Anita Derby. Can Napoleon Solo return to his NY form with a return to NY state?

Stay tuned.

More to come soon.

Here’s a quick look at our Top 10. The updated full rankings will be posted on the home page soon.