(Nearly wins the G3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday / Photo Courtesy of Gulfstream Park)

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After watching video replays and handicapping, I was truly (not nearly) convinced that the best horse going into last Saturday’s G3 Holy Bull Stakes was the two-time winner Nearly.

After watching the race live on TwinSpires.com and reviewing the race on both video and printed analysis, I am truly (definitely, not nearly) convinced now that the best horse going into the Florida Derby, IMO, is going to be Nearly. Unless something drastically changes for the horse or the race, of course.

And…

And, I’m going to be bold enough to write this…

After some more consideration, I am, well, nearly (yes, nearly) to the point that I’m about to profess my faith and belief that the 3-year-old colt, Nearly, is definitely (not nearly) my strong #1 pick going into this year’s 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.

How’s that for definitive?

LOL.

A friend of mine asked after the G3 Holy Bull for my thoughts on the race. I told him that I really like this horse — Nearly.

After a short discussion, my friend asked if I liked him as much as I did Sovereignty, a year ago. (It was a well-established fact that I was a strong, and very public advocate of the eventual Kentucky Derby winner a year ago, dating back to his 2YO days at Churchill Downs.)

I told my friend, “nearly.”

How’s that for definitive?

LOL.

Seriously, here’s the deal.

I first fell in love with the way that Nearly — a very developed and strong son of the hot sire Not This Time — won his last race going into the Holy Bull. This is the time. Take note.

In that allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 2, which featured only 4 horses, Nearly was, well, nearly knocked completely off of his feet at the very start by the prohibited, odds-on favorite. As a result, he was relegated to the back of the field and out of touch with the leaders — including Brad Cox’s big favorite Confessional.

But after awhile, taking time to regain his feet in this 7-furlong test, the colt had no issue or problem with regaining the composure and talent to make a serious run. He made up ground on the leaders, going 3 wide. At the top of the stretch, he drew even with Cox’s talent. And, quickly, without any trouble, he put the field away and put away any questions about this colt’s talent, grit, desire and determination.

He won. Impressively. Giving him two wins in a row.

The second time I was impressed with Nearly was this past Saturday. This time, the colt stretched out to 11/16-mile and around two turns. This time, Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez and his steed broke sharply and moved quickly to the inner rail, and, well, nearly, to the lead.

But after a rather significant gas pedal move through the first quarter and half mile, both rider and jockey allowed for the post time favorite, another Cox talent by the name of Cannoneer, to self propel to the lead.

Impressive. The horse showed he could rate. The horse demonstrated he could take a breather. The horse proved he could handle distance, time, and talent.

And, then when it mattered most, Nearly did what he has done before. He whipped some ass.

He put away the highly-touted and talented Cannoneer with just a whisper of the whip.

He put away the rest of the field with an ease and glide that only the special ones seem to have.

He ran off by, well, nearly 6 lengths to win an important prep for the Florida Derby and, yes, the Kentucky Derby.

I’m not privy to what and where trainer Todd Pletcher will go with his newly found superstar in the making. Probably will skip the Fountain of Youth, I’m told, and go right to the Florida Derby.

But I would suggest you give this horse some time and consideration.

If not already, I think Nearly is nearly as good as Sovereignty was at this same stage a year ago.

And, for me?

That’s writing something.