|Day Results||9 / 3-4-1|
|2020 Overall 1238||1238 / 441-412-510|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.62%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.70%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –805-1,238||65.02%|
|Top Selection ITM / CD 86-122||70.49%|
|Top Selections Win / CD 45-122||36.89%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 18-5-5-3||27.78% Win / 72.22% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 168-56-39-24||33.33% Win / 70.83% ITM|
Only managed three winners out of the 9 races carded on Thursday, but we squeezed out the back door with 6 exactas on the day.
Each $1 played rendered the likes of $11.30, $22.10, $30.70, $32.00, $12.80 and $20.00. No bombs to write home about. But we didn’t get bombed out, either.
Looking forward to Friday and a very difficult card. Prices will likely be the norm, IMO.
Here’s our looks:
1st: 5-3/1-6/4…Reason to Soar (5) comes from the barn of one of 2020’s hottest trainers. Has won with .22% this year in 931 previous starts. This one was nipped here last time out. Lost by a head in the final jump. Returns as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .28% of those kind. Has easy speed and has a 3-2-1 mark in 15 tries at this distance. Looks the best to me, but never won here in 5 previous tries. Vunerable at a short price? Laddie Boy (3) won here last time out, nipping our top pick right the wire. Will have to carry 2 more pounds than the top pick this time around. Could be the difference. Barn wins with .16% of those that won the last time out. Ridder is not having a blast here this meet, with a modest 1 win in 20 starts. Ouch. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then box the 5-3 in one exacta. I will key the 5 over/under the numbers in two other exactas.
2nd: 1-3-4/2-6/5…Limonite (1) will switch off the turf and back to the main track for this one today. Barn wins with .20% when making this surface switch. Ran 3rd over a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park in the last try over the main track. But has a 1-1-1 record in 4 starts over this dirt track. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up. Looks the best on paper. Believeinholidays (3) ran 4th against much, much tougher last time out at Ellis Park. Drops for this one and is coming off a brilliant work session here on Sept. 13. Barn has two 3rds in two races this meet. Like the rider choice. Mo’s Mojo (4) will be making the 3rd start off the layup and has two nice seconds in a row. Could be ready, but only has 1 win in 6 tries here. I bet the 1-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-6 in two shorter units.
3rd: 5/7-4-1/6-2/3…The first Key Play of the Day comes here with Rhythm Tree (5). This 3YO daughter of Tapiture is coming off a debacle of a race. Lost by 31 lengths. But drops considerably for this one and the race 2 back was solid enough to expect more and improvement. Barn wins with .25% when dropping this much at once. Catches a soft group, too. I bet the 5 to win/place/show and then key the 5 over/under all the numbers listed in the exactas.
4th: 4-7-2/5-3-11-8/6-12-1-10/9…Alfons Walde (4) gets the nod here for me. Has run 9 times to date and is still searching for that elusive winner’s circle photo opportunity. But does have 2 seconds and 3 thirds on the resume. Gets a new rider, who was 4th on this one’s back three races ago. Has talent. Beware. Pintxos (7) moves into the claiming ranks for the first time ever and the barn wins with .16% of those. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the trainer wins with .29% of those kind. This is one of those kind. Look for more today, too. Ahnaf (2) could spice up the odds rack here. Drops into the claiming ranks for the first time and this one really ran well here on June 26. Off since then, but the words are OK and the barns can surprise. I like this one’s chances a bit. I bet the 4-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top two numbers over/under the 2-5-3-11-8-6 in two smaller units.
5th: 3-8/7-1/2-4/6-5…Traci’s Greeley (3) has been a different horse since moving into the barn of John Ortiz back in the early summer months. Since arriving, this one has a win, a second and two thirds in just 4 races total. Moves up in class here and faces winners for the first time. Barn does win with .20% when the horse won the last affair, too. Gets the same rider back. Click factor here. Isabelle’s Joy (8) tried the turf last time out and that didn’t fare too well. Back on the dirt now and the barn wins with .18% of those making this surface switch. In route to sprints, the trainer wins with .13%. I bet the 3 to win/place/show and then box the top 2 in the exacta. I will key the 3-8 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
6th: 7-5-8/3-1-4/2/(9)…Cash Out (7) gets back to the sod today for a barn that wins with .14% of all grass starters. Returns as a beaten favorite, too, and the barn wins with a whopping .31% of those kind. Gets a new rider up, and the jockey has had a very nice summer in KY. Love the last work on Sept. 18. Looks primed for this one. Turtle Trax (5) starter the career with a real bang. After the opener, this 3YO daughter of Cairo Prince won the next two. Ran 5th in the G2 Golden Rod here last Fall. Has 5 starts this year. No wins, but 2 seconds and a third. Looks like she could use the class drop here, too. Teenage Kicks (8) won two races back and has hit the board in 6 of the last 7. The “out” was a 4th last time out. Faltered in the late going then. Barn wins with .21% in the allowance ranks and this one keeps a dandy rider. I bet the 7-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 2 numbers over/under the 8-3-1-4-2. I use the 9 if it goes off the turf.
7th: 6-3-8/9-7-1-4/2…My Man Flintstone (6) won the last time out and wheels right back for a barn that has been hot of late. This 3YO son of Into Mischief has a win and a second in three races over this surface, and is 2-2-0 in 4 starts at the distance. Looks primed. Majestic West (3) has not won here in 4 starts, but has a second and a third. Trainer wins with .19% making the 3rd start off the layup and the rider has teamed up to go 2-0-1 in the last 4 for this barn operation. Mister K (8) won the last time out in July. Got a breather, again, and now comes in here. Love the ML odds and this one is my first Upset Special of the Day. Same guy trains Bell’s the One. Don’t leave out. I’m not. I bet the 6-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in one exacta. I key the 6-8 over/under the 3-9-7-1-4-2 in two smaller units.
8th: 3-8-5/7-1-2/4-6…Spycraft (3) comes from the barn of Brad Cox. That enough reason to support? Barn has won with .22% this meet and .24% for the year. This one makes the 2020 debut and the first start for this trainer. Barn does very well with the newcomers and this one gets the barn’s go-to rider up. Big chance here. Kadri (8) comes off a MSW win last time out here on Sept. 5. Rock and rolled in that one and swept to an easy 2-length win. Barn wins with .30% when they move up to face winner’s for the first time. Rider is red hot. Has gone 7-4-1 in the last 25 mounts. Sharp work on Sept. 20. I bet the 3-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 3-8 over/under the 5-7-1-2-4-6 in two smaller units.
9th: 5-8/2-6-3/1-7/4…Belle Laura (5) ran 6th in a G2 event last time out and that was the first run off a layup. Before that, this one won the last two at Gulfstream Park. The tough Beau Recall won that last one. In 12 turf races, she has 3 wins and 2 thirds. Has the speed to be close in this one from the get-go. Looks primed. Amazima (8) has a second and third in two starts here. In 11 runs, she has a 3-1-2 mark. Dam of this one has 2 turf winners from 10 starters and 2 Stakes winners. Big chance. I bet the 5-8 across the board and then box those two in the exacta. I will key the 5-8 over/under the 2-6-3-1-7 in two smaller units.
10th: 8-2/7-6/1-4-3…Movie Moxy (8) is my Key Play of the Day. This 3YO daughter of Street Sense lost by a neck last time out and returns as a beaten favorite here. Barn wins with .31% of them. Work on Sept. 21 was spot on. This one cost $225,000 at the 2018 KEE September Yearling Sale and looks primed and edgy. My solo pick. I bet the 8 to win/place/show and then box the 8-2 in the exacta. I will key the 8 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene