|Total Day Results||10 / 3-6-5|
|2021 Overall 626||626 / 221-232-254|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.30%|
|Payoff% of Top 3 Picks Overall||37.65%|
|2021 Top Pick in the Money Overall — 398-626||63.58%|
|2021 Top Selection ITM / CD 7-10||70.00%|
|2021 Top Selections Win / CD 3-10||30.00%|
|“Key Horses” @ CD 0 / 0-0-0||00.00% Win / 00.00% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2021 98 / 42-23-7||42.86% Win / 73.47% ITM|
It’s Derby Week 2021. And, we kick start this festive occasion and event with a rare day of Tuesday racing at the big oval. Here’s our looks. We are hoping to build some bankroll heading into the big days at the end of the week.
Here’s our picks:
1st 1-3-5/2/4…We will go right to the rail birds for the lid-lifter on Tuesday and saddle up with Solomonic (1). This one is the prohibitive favorite in the Brisnet.com ML, and the 5YO son of Paynter figures to be a solid choice by PT, too. This one is coming off two straight 3rds at Oaklawn Park, where he was working against tougher foes. Does have a track record of 6 previous starts here. Has 0 wins, but 3 seconds and a third. Just 3 wins in 27 starts, too. Hmmm. Colonelsdarktemper (3) is now a 7YO and once upon a time had some real back class. This one was a SW and could overpower others in his generation on the “secondary circuits.” Has piled up over $813,000 in purse money to date. Will be making the first start since last July and the first start for a new trainer, too. Barn wins with .19% of the newcomers and this one goes from the turf to the dirt, too. Barn wins with .22% of those kind. Has not been terrific of late. Only a single second in 7 starts last year. Had a 1-0-1 mark in 10 starts the year before. Would be a surprise, but has talent. Charlie’sarchangel (5) drops in class off a nondescript effort at Oaklawn Park last time out. Should fit better at this level and gets a nice jockey change for the try. Working OK and this one does have a 3-0-3 mark in 9 tries here before. This one could upset the cart a bit. I bet the 5 — take note — to win/place/show and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 2-4 in two smaller units.
2nd: 1-6/2/3-4/5…Could we get back-to-back rail jobs? Could. Parkin in the Rear (1) gets my top pick here. This one was not ready for the start last time out and the rider soon parted company with the steed. Time before, this one ran a very nice 4th at Oaklawn Park and up against some solid horses. This one drops into the claimers here and picks up a solid rider switch. Work here is OK, too. Could air these early and often, but the distance does concern me. Rock Star Parking (6) shortens up off the route races of late. Only time at this 7-furlong distance? A win. And, it was here. Works are solid. Gets a rider who was up on this one for the win. My pick. I bet the 1-6 across the board and then double down with another swing on the 6. I will box those two in the exacta, and then key the 1-6 over/under the rest of the numbers. More on the 2. A bit less on the rest.
3rd: 6-7/3-4/1A-2/1…Simply Beguiled (6) nearly broke the maiden last time out when racing for the $20,000 price level for the first time. Had to be steadied along in the first turn and compromised for much of that early going. Top rider comes back for the job today and he just finished up a terrific meet at KEE. Look for this one to be coming late and be tough to hold off and out. Youens (7) is a word that a favorite legislator of mine used all the time, back in the day. Now this 3YO filly by American Pharoah could make “youens” a happy lot with a big effort here. Comes in off two 5ths in a row — but those were against the MSW level. Barn wins with .19% when making this drop position, and this one looks salty here. I bet the 6-7 across the board and then box those two sternly in the exactas. Sternly. I will key the 6-7 over/under the rest of the numbers in two smaller units.
4th: 7-2-4/6/8…Awesummer (7) was claimed just two starts ago, and this new barn operation wins with 100% of those making the 2nd start after the purchase. (Note: It was 1-for-1.) This one can show a lot of early lick in these grass races. Will try to throttle back and save some of the gas for the late going, to be sure. But the barn wins with .11% when they are shipping in. Culture Icon (2) will be making the 2nd career start for a barn that wins with .20% of those types. Will be the first try on the sod, though, and the barn wins with .12% of those making the green game happen. Gets a top rider up. Dam of this one has 2 winners form 4 started and 2 turf winners. Bred for this thing. Knopfler (4) is a 3YO Lookin at Lucky colt, who is owned in part by Starlight Racing out of Louisville. Here’s hoping that all parties have a reason to celebrate after the game is done today. Drops from the $50,000 level to the $30,000 stipend. Has ability. And, the barn wins with .15% that switch from the dirt to the turf. Chance. I bet the 7-4 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 over/under the 6-8 in two smaller units.
5th: 10-2-3/4-5-1A/7-1-6…This is a MSW event going the marathon distance over the dirt surface. Gate crew has got to get geared up for the Derby, too. I will saddle up with There Goes Harvard (10) in this event. The 3YO son of Will Take Charge has been training well on the West Coast and gets a familiar face in the saddle position, too. In 3 career starts to date? Has never missed the board and this one has lost to two highly regarded colts — Bezos and The Great One. So, this one comes with some real credentials. Continuation (2) ran very well the last two times and has hit the board in 4 of 7 career starts, to date. Always seems to get in contention. Always figures to stay in trouble until it is too late. Happy American (3) has run two very nice 3rds in the last two outings. Trainer has gone 3-0-1 in the last 8 starts, and the work on April 10 over at KEE? Spot on. Encouraging. I bet the 10-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the 10-3 over/under the 2/4-5-entry.
6th: 6-2-8/10-1-5/(11)-(12)/4-9-7…Prairie Wings (6) returns after a short break from the racing game dating back to last October. Finished the 2020 campaign on a real run. Overall, in 6 lifetime starts, this one has a win and 5 seconds. Always right there. This does not figure to be any different. Has faced some good ones in the past. Goes for one of the game’s best barn operations. Gets a red hot rider. Adds up. Nope (2) is getting better with each start, since arriving from Great Britain in 2019. Made only one start last year — a 4th at GP in early April. Something must have happened in that encounter. Been off until February of this year. Looks about ready to pop. Take Charge Ro (8) just broke the maiden last time out, and that was the 5th career start. In 5 career starts, this one has a win; two seconds; and a third. Looks like a “light bulb moment” could have happened. New rider should fit just fine. I bet the 6-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 6-8 over/under the 2-10-1-5-4-9 in two smaller units. I will add the 11-12 if the two get in from the AE List.
7th: 9-4/3-1-6/2-8/7…Sir Alfred James (9) gets the slight edge in this one for me. The 5YO gelded son of Munnings really ran well in the last outing at the FG on March 18. Just got nipped in that one. Barn wins with .21% of those cutting back from the route distance to the sprint. Has enough speed to be dangerous, but could opt to stalk this group, considering his post position. Shoplifted (4) is truly the horse to beat. This one has never raced here before, but this one has some real back-class on the resume. Has won over $539,000 in purses and is Graded Stakes-placed in the career. Gets a top rider, who finished 2nd on him just two starts ago, in the irons. Jockey has won with .26% of the last 120 mounts for this barn. Works solid. Love this son of Into Mischief. Maybe he can be gone. I bet the 9-4 across the board and then box these two in the exactas. I will key the 9-4 over/under the 3-1-6-2-8 in two smaller versions.
8th: 2-6-5/4-3/1-7/8…Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight Stakes…This is a 11/2-mile endurance test over the main track, and I will saddle up with Lone Rock (2) in here. This 6YO gelding has made three starts this year for the barn of Robertino Diodoro. Gelding has won two and finished 2nd in the other — by a skinny neck. Has done well at this distance, with a win and a 2nd. Should have the right speed to land a good trip. The one to beat. You’re to Blame (6) ran behind our top pick last time out at Oaklawn Park. But this one was beaten nearly 7 lengths, when he was steered to the far outside. Gets a new rider today, and this new pilot could and should make a huge difference. I bet the 2-6 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 4-3 in two smaller units. I will key the 2 over/under all the numbers listed in two more, as well.
9th: 4-8-(11)/(13)-2-3-1A/(12)-(14)-7-1-5/6-9…The final race of the day is a turf event that will be contested at the 11/16-mile distance. Wide, wide, wide open affair to close out the proceedings. I will go light in this one and hope for the best. I will give the slight edge to Chantry Flats (4) — who is a 6YO gelded son of The Factor. Has been over the sod in 13 previous races. Has a solid 2-3-1 record. Should fit with this group today. Has speed and can use it. Rider choice is interesting. Let’s see how this marriage works. Convict Pike (8) has raced over this grass course 5 times in the past. Has 2 seconds and a third on the resume. Could be coming late for a piece of the action. Barn wins with 29% when returning as a beaten favorite. Stage Ready (11) is on the AE List and needs some lucky just to face the starter. But if this 5YO son of More Than Ready makes the gate? Look out. This one could dominate this group, even from the far outside post. Gets the 2nd career start for the new barn operator and he wins with .17% of those kind. I bet the 4-8 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers — no matter who they are. I will key the the 4-8 over/under the 11-13-2-3-1-12-14-7 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene