By Ryan Dickey:
For every live race day of the Keeneland Spring meet, I will be analyzing the finale for each card. We’ll call it the “Bail-Out Special” — in case you had a bad day at the track and you need JUST ONE WINNER to right the ship. We are going to try our best to give you that advice and counsel and hope that we all can get some “dinner money” for the night.
But the selection can be used for more than just stemming losses from a bad day. Maybe you’d like to get aggressive and single a horse in multi-race bets. Maybe you’ve had a GREAT day at the track and you want to “let it ride.”
No matter how you use it, it’s my goal to pick THE WINNING HORSE in the finale — I won’t be too concerned about the morning line odds. I’ll actually be handicapping the race before the odds are announced. So my selection may not be the “value play” in the finale — just my opinion on who I think will be, can be, may be the WINNER. At the least, we are “all in” together.
Saturday, April 6
Race 11 Maiden Special Weight ($79,000 purse) fillies 3 years old 1-1/16 mile on turf approx 7:00 pm ET
After choosing #4 Trophy Doll in the finale on opening day and #7 Time On Target in Friday’s finale which were two tough races to handicap, I’m thankful for Saturday’s Race 11, as I feel I have a “slam dunk” winner.
Again, I make these selections before the morning lines are posted, and I’m simply trying to pick the winner, not the best “value” in the final race of the day. After a long card and plenty of stakes action, Blue Grass day in Lexington serves us up a softball in the finale, and we can use it to bail us out if we had a bad day, but most importantly, I think we have a great opportunity to single a horse in the race after the Blue Grass.
Without further ado, my “Keeneland Bail-out Special” for Blue Grass day is #5 DELTA’S KINGDOM. And I’m pretty sure she’ll be the morning line AND post-time favorite. Sometimes it’s ok to be a chalk-eating weasel–since favorites win at a decent clip. I highly expect this filly to be an odds-on favorite, based on handicapping the past performances.
She’s been the bridesmaid in her last two races, and this time I feel she walks down the aisle all by herself. Although she was a beaten favorite last time out, I think she gets it right this time.
The only filly that scares me in this race is the #12 Stamp, who was also a beaten favorite last out, but the post position hurts her, and I think she’ll be too far behind the pace that should be set by #3 Art of Almost–a filly I like underneath in this race. Expect Art of Almost to set the lead, with #1 Astoundment, #6 She’s Got Moves and our pick Delta’s Kingdom to be in the first tier.
#2 Choate Bridge is another filly to use underneath. She showed some promise at Saratoga last summer, then was off until the first week of March, where she did not get off to a very good start. Second off the layoff, she could have a big forward move.
I also like #9 Hungry Kitten for trainer Shug McGaughey. Expect her to out-perform her debut from last November.
Pretty straightforward plays here in the Saturday finale. Hammer #5 Delta’s Kingdom. Play a trifecta of 5 over 2,9,12 over 2,3,7,8,9,12 ($15.00 for a $1 trifecta key). Of the first three days of the Keeneland meet, this is the easiest of the three finales.