By Ryan Dickey:
Race 10 “Bail-out Special”
For every live race day of the Keeneland Spring meet, I will be analyzing the finale for each card. We’ll call it the “Bail-Out Special” — in case you had a bad day at the track and you need JUST ONE WINNER to right the ship. We are going to try our best to give you that advice and counsel and hope that we all can get some “dinner money” for the night.
But the selection can be used for more than just stemming losses from a bad day. Maybe you’d like to get aggressive and single a horse in multi-race bets. Maybe you’ve had a GREAT day at the track and you want to “let it ride.”
No matter how you use it, it’s my goal to pick THE WINNING HORSE in the finale — I won’t be too concerned about the morning line odds. I’ll actually be handicapping the race before the odds are announced. So my selection may not be the “value play” in the finale — just my opinion on who I think will be, can be, may be the WINNER. At the least, we are “all in” together.
Friday, April 12 fillies 3 years old 6 furlongs on dirt approx 6:03 pm ET
Chad Brown owes me. He may not know it, or care, but I’ve bet his horses a few times during this Keeneland meet and have very little to show for it. I lost my “Bail-out Special” backing him yesterday, and I’m just crazy enough to do it again today. Looking at this MSW affair, once again he has the best horse on paper. Will he have another disappointing finale, or can we all walk away from Keeneland smiling because we hit the last race and we hit it big?
I’m going for the latter and betting #11 PALOMITA, the Into Mischief filly to break her maiden in the race after the feature. Castellano and Brown are about as potent of a jockey/trainer combo going now, so it’s full steam ahead, even if the filly has some question marks.
Sometimes, you just have to “bet it and forget it” and that is the case here. A single in the late pick-4, we’ll have all our eggs in the Palomita basket for the Bail-out Special.
Key #11 over #6 DOLL COLLECTION and #10 SAIL ON in exactas and over ALL in the trifecta.
I’m 2-for-6 so far with these bets and feel good about getting to 3-for-7.