By Ryan Dickey:
Race 11 “Bail-out Special”
For every live race day of the Keeneland Spring meet, I will be analyzing the finale for each card. We’ll call it the “Bail-Out Special” — in case you had a bad day at the track and you need JUST ONE WINNER to right the ship. We are going to try our best to give you that advice and counsel and hope that we all can get some “dinner money” for the night.
But the selection can be used for more than just stemming losses from a bad day. Maybe you’d like to get aggressive and single a horse in multi-race bets. Maybe you’ve had a GREAT day at the track and you want to “let it ride.”
No matter how you use it, it’s my goal to pick THE WINNING HORSE in the finale — I won’t be too concerned about the morning line odds. I’ll actually be handicapping the race before the odds are announced. So my selection may not be the “value play” in the finale — just my opinion on who I think will be, can be, may be the WINNER. At the least, we are “all in” together.
Saturday, April 13 Maiden Special Weight 3 years old 6 furlongs on dirt approx 6:45 pm ET
After a nice winning “Bail-out Special” yesterday, I’m looking to make it two in a row for the second time in the meet. This maiden special weight six furlong sprint is a much tougher race to handicap than Friday’s finale. But I’m up for the challenge, and I have the horse I think will get the job done again today.
#4 MILTONTOWN is my second top-choice on this card that has previously never hit the board. I’m going to give jockey Miguel Mena a mulligan for his ride last time on this Speightstown colt. He probably shouldn’t have gone four wide around the turn or seven wide at the top of the lane. Finishing fourth was probably the best he could have asked for.
He’ll be facing a mix of horses that are either inexperienced or unaccomplished.
#8 KULIK BEAR could improve from his debut 49 days ago when he finished third in a $27k MSW race at Tampa going seven furlongs. Contesting one less panel wouldn’t hurt considering he seemed to tire at the end of that race.
First time starters #6 PERLMAN and #9 UNSHAKEN could be contenders, but I’m sticking with Miltontown and the experience under his belt, with Mena giving him a much better chance to win today.
I usually have a pretty good feel for what any particular horse will have as far as post time odds, but here I’m sort of at a loss. I’m taking Miltontown even if he’s a prohibitive favorite but I don’t think he will be. The 6-1 morning line odds would be great, but I’d take 3/2 on him if it meant bailing me out. He’s a winner!
I’m 3-for-7 so far with these bets and feel good about getting back to .500.