By Ryan Dickey:
For every live race day of the Keeneland Spring meet, I will be analyzing the finale for each card. We’ll call it the “Bail-Out Special” — in case you had a bad day at the track and you need JUST ONE WINNER to right the ship. We are going to try our best to give you that advice and counsel and hope that we all can get some “dinner money” for the night.
But the selection can be used for more than just stemming losses from a bad day. Maybe you’d like to get aggressive and single a horse in multi-race bets. Maybe you’ve had a GREAT day at the track and you want to “let it ride.”
No matter how you use it, it’s my goal to pick THE WINNING HORSE in the finale — I won’t be too concerned about the morning line odds. I’ll actually be handicapping the race before the odds are announced. So my selection may not be the “value play” in the finale — just my opinion on who I think will be, can be, may be the WINNER. At the least, we are “all in” together.
Saturday, April 20
Race 10 Maiden Special Weight ($79,000 purse) 3 years old 6-1/2 furlongs on dirt approx 6:03 pm ET
After a nice streak with the “Bail-out Special” ended, we were scratched out of the finale yesterday, so it feels like FOREVER since we’ve had “action” going into the last race although it’ll only be a grand total of about 48 hours. Keeneland meets will do that to you!
The weather will be even worse today– cold, rainy, miserable. But the finale is scheduled for the dirt, and there will be horses contesting it, trying to break that maiden in the slop. While I won’t try to handicap which horses will run and which will not, I WILL provide a pick for today’s “Bail-out Special”, but buyer beware–I’m not going to come up with situational plays, meaning “if this horse runs, then play this, but if this horse scratches, play this one.”
There is a mix of unraced and lightly raced three year olds in the tenth. No runners have raced on a wet track. There is no past performance advantage of any of these, so one must look to pedigree information if one is so inclined.
I’m not going to do that. I’m calling my shot here, and it’s #4 FORTUNE’S FOOL.
I wish I could elegantly explain the intricate process of arriving at the 3-1 morning line James Toner trained, Tyler Gaffalione ridden Arch gelding. But I can’t and won’t.
Of the horses that have raced, this one has the experience (one race!) of being near the lead–something that will be very important at about 6:03 pm ET today at a boggy Keeneland track.
He’s been working well, and would have been a contender on dry going, so I’m sticking with him in the mud. Look for him to be on or near the lead again today and have a solid chance to get to the wire first.
Not the most appealing of “Bail-out Specials” to be sure, but I’m putting my 5-for-10 record on the line with #4 Fortune’s Fool–if he runs!
Key #4 over #1, #3, #8 and #9.
Best of luck!