(The man in the “purple suit” hung a good one on them Saturday. Try again today, if you will)
By Ryan Dickey:
For every live race day of the Keeneland Spring meet, I will be analyzing the finale for each card. We’ll call it the “Bail-Out Special” — in case you had a bad day at the track and you need JUST ONE WINNER to right the ship. We are going to try our best to give you that advice and counsel and hope that we all can get some “dinner money” for the night.
But the selection can be used for more than just stemming losses from a bad day. Maybe you’d like to get aggressive and single a horse in multi-race bets. Maybe you’ve had a GREAT day at the track and you want to “let it ride.”
No matter how you use it, it’s my goal to pick THE WINNING HORSE in the finale — I won’t be too concerned about the morning line odds. I’ll actually be handicapping the race before the odds are announced. So my selection may not be the “value play” in the finale — just my opinion on who I think will be, can be, may be the WINNER. At the least, we are “all in” together.
Sunday, April 7
Race 9 Maiden Special Weight ($79,000 purse) 3 years old 1-1/16 mile on main track approx 5:30 pm ET
Well, the blind squirrel finally found an acorn when the #5 Delta’s Kingdom won the finale at Keeneland yesterday, paying $9.40 to win. I used my bail-out special to enhance my winnings on Blue Grass day as I had a nice score in the early pick-5 and was playing with house money the rest of the day.
Hd Somelikeithotbrown or Win Win Win won the Blue Grass, I would have had an infinitely better day as I had a live ticket to them and three other in the feature.
But that was yesterday and this is today, so we need to look forward not backward.
The maiden special weight affair has some pretty decent three year olds, with most of them routing for the first time. These are some tricky races, and with little information available in the form of solid past performance data, anything can happen.
I’m not going to get into a long discussion of why I like or don’t like certain horses in this race, because honestly, races like this are a crapshoot at best. So I’m going to provide my bail-out special as directly as possible.
I like the #9 BANDON WOODS in the finale on Sunday, and I think we’ll see a wire-to-wire winner. Castellano is coming off a huge day at Keeneland and Chad Brown is an all-world trainer.
Will we get 7/2 like the morning line indicates? Probably not. But anything north of even money is fine for me.
I hope to not be using the pick as a bail-out, as I like a few horses earlier in the card at what could be square prices, so hopefully I find myself in a good position coming into the last race again today.
The horses I would use underneath in exactas and trifectas are #1 RUNNIN’ RAY, #2 UNVEILING, and #6 RANGER UP.
I hope my readers had as good of time with the opening week at Keeneland as I did. Let’s get this one home!