By Ryan Dickey:

The Blue Grass is shaping up to be quite a betting race — if you aren’t playing the morning-line favorite Vekoma; or the beaten favorite in the Tampa Derby, Win Win Win; or last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club winner Signalman in the #1 spot.

VEKOMA (2), a Candy Ride colt, won his debut at six furlongs last September. Followed that up with a win in the G3 Nashua going a mile in November. Then, he started the 2019 campaign with a third in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth in his only start this year.

Having seen this colt in the flesh, he’s pretty solid looking, and has that “wow!” quality. Does he deserve to be the 9-5 Morning Line favorite against this bunch? Maybe. Should he be a 9-5 favorite? Probably not.

Javier Castellano will get the leg up from trainer George Weaver. It’ll be Castellano’s first time riding Vekoma, after Manny Franco piloted the colt in his three prior starts. In and of itself, the jockey change should be a positive, but I prefer jockeys that are familiar with their Derby prep horses by April.

Kenny McPeek’s SIGNALMAN (3)  has that Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club race on his resume, and ran well in the Claiborne Breeders Futurity at Keeneland last October, when he was second to Knicks Go. Ran well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs, too, running third behind Game Winner and Knicks Go.

Brian Hernandez Jr. is first up for McPeek and will be riding Signalman for the fifth consecutive race.

But nothing really jumps out of the past performances for me to be intrigued by Signalman. He doesn’t show any early speed, and he’s only been a true closer once — in his career debut when running in a 5-furlong sprint. That was contested over the slop, where he passed just three horses. In that event last May at Churchill Downs, Signalman gained only one length on the leader to finish second.

If he wins the Blue Grass, I won’t have a winning ticket.

Trainer Michael Trombetta’s Win Win Win will get bet by the general public because he has a cool name. He’ll also get bet because he showed a decent rally in the Tampa Bay Derby, which was an oddly-run race with ridiculously fast early fractions, and a pace meltdown that was obvious even to the most casual racing fan.

While his win (win win) in the $125,000 Pasco Stakes at Tampa was impressive — and in a track record time for 7 furlongs — the only time he’s failed to land in the exacta was his only Graded Stakes attempt in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Luckily for Trombetta and rider Irad Ortiz, Jr.,  who gets the nod again, there aren’t many horses in the field with much more class. He deserves to be the second-choice.

Those are the horses with the “best” chances to win the Blue Grass. But while these three horses represent the most logical winners, the value on some of the others in the field is hard to ignore.

So?

Let’s move on to the horses that astute bettors should focus on “ACTUALLY BETTING:” 

My top choice in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 6, 2019 is DREAM MAKER (6),  for trainer Mark Casse (looking for his first Blue Grass winner) and jockey Florent Geroux.

At 12-1 on the morning line, and with three solid contenders splitting the lion’s share of the wagering dollars, Dream Maker should have plenty of value on Saturday.

When looking at his past performances, you’ll want to take your darkest red marker and draw a thick line through his last race. As stated earlier, that Tampa Bay Derby was something else. Dream Maker never got close to the early pace, and also didn’t get near the lead when that pace melted down. It was a very odd running line. Forget about it.

Dream Maker is a young Tapit colt. Tapit colts,  at 3-years-old, are often quirky, headstrong, or just plain nuts. But more often than not, when that “light” goes on, they all of a sudden run to their pedigree potential, and sometimes the difference between two races is astounding.

That could be the case with Dream Maker.

This one has been working well in the mornings, and prior to the Tampa Derby, he was looking like he was moving forward. At long odds, I’ll take a shot that this is the day he’ll put it together.

I also like SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN (1), the son of Kentucky Derby Winner Big Brown. He is trained by Michael Maker,  and will get the services of jockey Tyler Gaffalione.

At 10-1 on the morning line, this colt should be on or very near the lead early on. He’s won at this 9-furlong distance (last out in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park), too.

The only hangup? This is his first start on dirt.

Watching the replay from his win at Turfway, he sort of weaved in and out down the stretch, so maybe 9-furlongs is his ceiling. But I don’t think the dirt will affect him as much as some people may think. He will be forwardly placed, and, therefore, should not experience too much dirt kickback from horses in front of him. And there’s a chance that a very fast dirt track could help him better utilize his speed and help him at this distance. He’s worth a shot.

Two other runners in the Blue Grass that I’m expecting to use underneath in vertical bets (such as the exacta and trifecta) are SIR WINSTON (9) and LUCKY LEE (10).

Sir Winston is the “other” horse in the race trained by Mark Casse, and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. He looks to be a horse on the improve, and was another victim of the odd Tampa Bay Derby. Yet, he has a propensity to be driving to the wire. Although he missed the board at this distance in the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct in February, that race has come back pretty strong, and he finished fourth, improving two positions and gaining a full length on the race winner down the stretch. He’ll be overlooked at the window and could fill out a trifecta nicely.

Lucky Lee is the horse I really want to round out a trifecta, because he’ll be a big longshot. His trainer, Jason Servis, has been winning at a ridiculous clip of late, so maybe his training prowess can make Lucky Lee’s chances of taking a big step forward come to fruition. It’s just a hunch.

I’m going to play exacta and trifecta boxes with #1, #6, #9, and #10. Any exacta that I’ll hit with this combo will make me a winner. Basically, I’m betting that none of the three “most logical contenders” win or place. If I can catch a third with one of my selections for the trifecta? Well, it’ll be quite a day! Quite a day. 

Best of luck, as always.