|Day Results||10 / 5-1-4|
|2020 Overall 1395||1395 / 491-462-589|
|Win % of Top Pick||35.20%|
|Payoff % of Top 3 Picks Overall||36.85%|
|2020 Top Pick in the Money –902-1,395||64.66%|
|Top Selection ITM / KEE 68-107||63.55%|
|Top Selections Win / KEE 35-107||32.71%|
|“Key Horses” @ KEE 9-6-1-1||66.67% Win / 88.89% ITM|
|“Key Horses” in 2020 189-64-43-27||33.86% Win / 70.90% ITM|
(Betty McLean — my mom — will celebrate her 90th birthday on Sunday. She still cooks up a mean fried chicken dinner. The best ever. Ever.)
We had a nice Saturday.
Kentucky wins at Tennessee — for the first time since I was 28 years old. Wow. Now, that’s a long time ago, friends.
Our only “Key Play of the Day” won easily and impressively.
We nailed the exacta in the G2 Raven Run, with a nice runner-up call on Finite — which rendered $26.80 for every $1 played. And, we played more than the single buck.
We had 5 winners total out of the 10.
We had 7 exactas out of the 10.
And, our “Key Horses” have now gone 6-1-1 in just 9 picks — as such — here this meet.
We had a nice Saturday.
Now, we will go to Midway on Sunday to help celebrate my Mom’s 90th birthday. We are doing one of those “drive-by” celebrations. She can’t go with me to Keeneland — as we have done for each of the past 7 years. Keeneland decided only the rich and famous can come to see the races this meet. We don’t fit either one of those categories. But we will have some fun.
Count on it.
Here’s a look at Sunday’s races:
1st: 4-6-5/1/7-8…Don’tshowweakness (4) will get a huge drop in class for this one today from barn coordinator Greg Foley. Last seen, this one raced for $40,000 price tag. Today, he is in for $15,000. Has run two 4ths against much better. Barn wins with .27% when the trainer drops this much in one swoop. This is the 2nd route race, too, and the barn wins with .20% of those. Move back to the dirt should assist this one’s effort. My pick in a weak group. I bet the 4 to win/place/show and then box the top three numbers in one exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 1 in two smaller units.
2nd: 2-1-3/5-4-6/7…Irish Willow (2) nearly won at this same level when last seen at Churchill Downs on Sept. 27. Lost that tilt by a nose. Cuts back to a sprint here today, and the barn wins with .26% when they go from a sprint to a route and then back to a sprint distance. Trainer wins with .14% when making the 3rd start off the layup, too. Should fit nicely with these and has the speed to love this 7 furlong distance. Forevernoa (1) broke the maiden when racing over the sod at Arlington Park two races ago. Ran a very credible race last tim out when moved to the dirt here on Oct. 7. Just got tired at the wire. Cut back in distance should help this one out, too. Last three races have been solid. I bet the 2-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 2-1 over/under the 3-5-4-6-7 in two smaller units, too. I may take a little more on the 1 across the board, as well. Take note.
3rd: 3-1-5/4-6/8-7…Ketchikan (3) gets my nod in this spot. Ran well in the career debut, when third at Ellis Park. Ran over the grass that day, but that was during a dry-spell summer — when the turf was firm and hard. Switch to dirt should not be an issue, and the barn wins with .17% of those making this switch. Gets a nice rider switch to the meet’s top jockey. Was way wide; was in and out; was not the best of trips in the last. Expect more here. Blue Paynt (1) could be well-spotted for a huge run here, too. Missed by a neck last time out when getting back to the dirt at CD. Gets a route distance today, and the barn wins with .21% on the stretch out. Strong threat here. I’ll Make It Coach (5) has been running against MSW company and now gets the drop into the MCL ranks for the first time. Barn wins with .10% of those making the drop for the first time. The last effort was not a great one, coming off the layup. The two races before were good enough to give credibility with the move to dirt today. Barn wins with .26% of those making this surface switch. Chance. I will be the 3-1 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 4-6 in two smaller units.
4th: 1-6-5/8/4-7…Spy a Star (1) drops from the $40,000 price tag to a career low level today. Has two non-threatening 3rds on the resume so far, but against better and with modest improvement. Now, will get a route for the first time and the barn wins with .13% of those ind. Nice work here on Sept. 8. Looks best on paper. Bertrada (6) is dropping off a MSW turf event at Saratoga to a dirt MCL race here. Barn wins with .18% when going into the claimers for the first time, and with a much-improved .16% with the second start. Jockey has recent fame, but still has only won with .06% in 352 mounts this year. Don’t get me started. Yellowstone Girl (5) comes from the barn of Brad Cox and drops into the MCL ranks for the first time, too. Rider has won with .26% of the last 62 mounts for this barn and the barn wins with .27% when dropping from MSW to MCL. Works are OK, but I would have expected more in the debut. The horse to watch here, IMO? Sacre Bleu (8). This is a first time starter for a new barn operation. Works at the Thoroughbred Center are very nice. And? This one gets the meet’s top winning rider. Like it. I bet the 1-8 across the board and then I box those two in the exacta. I will key the 1-8 over/under the 6-5-4-7 in two smaller units.
5th: (13)-1-8-9/6-2-3-5-11/10-4-(14)/7-12…This is a wide, wide, wide open grass affair, which will be contested at 11/16-miles over the green, green grass of home. I will give the definite edge to Perjury Trap (13) in this one. There’s just one problem. This one is not in the race — yet. The 3YO son of Blame, who is trained by Chad Brown, is probably the best in here. Has the ability to rush the start and/or come from far back. Move to grass has certainly helped. Been favored in all four runs, to date. Interesting rider choice for this one. Very interesting. In Love (1) ran a huge one in the 2020 debut on Sept. 20 at Churchill Downs. Came from last to just miss being first at the wire by less than 2. Now, gets a little more ground and a lot more experience. Love the odds on this one and the 4YO gelding is my first Upset Special of the Day. I will give another longshot a shot in here, too. Falkirk (8) has run two very good ones since being equipped with the blinkers. But the trainer — one great guy — is 0-for-36 this meet. Ouch. Chilly. Lemon Kick (9) broke the maiden last time out by over 5 at Arlington Park. Got the blinkers for the first time in that one. Must move up to face winners for the first time today, and that’s a tough assignment for any and all. But the barn wins with a very nice .23% with those types and the work on Sept. 1? Spot on. Take note here. I bet the 13 if he gets in. If not? Spread. I will bet the 1-8-9 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the 1-8-9 over/under the 6-2 in two smaller units. Def use the 13, though, if he gets in and I key him with the top 5/6 numbers.
6th: 5-6-8/3/2-4/1…A very nice MSW event for the 2YOs here. I will give a very slight edge to Inspector Frost (5) in this spot — mainly due to the fact that this son of Frosted has a race under his girth. Ran a well-beaten 3rd in the debut at Churchill Downs in September, but was the betting favorite that day. The “Place” horse in that race has already come back to win the next out, too. Barn wins with .26% on 2nd outs, and .30% with beaten favorites. Trainer having another great meet here. Watch out. Tiwanaku (6) is a first time starter for the HOF trainer. Dam of this one has 3 winners from 3 starters. Rider has gone 6-4-4 in the last 22 mounts. Works for this one? Spot on. Son of Tapit is out of a Stakes-winning dam. All there for this one to be better than just good. War Machine (8) is another first timer, and this one has some long odds in the ML. I would not dismiss this one, though. Trainer wins with .16% on the first effort. Dam of this one has 3 winners from 4 starters and a Stakes winner, already. Works are very nice. Son of War Front? I would not dismiss. I use. I bet the 5-6 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exacta. I will key the top 3 over/under the 3 in two smaller units.
7th: 7-3/6-4-5-1/9…Motagally (7) will drop into the claiming ranks for the first time, and the barn wins with a remarkable .43% of the time when that occurs. The connections paid a whopping $650,000 at the 2017 KEE September Yearling Sale for this one. Currently, the 4YO colt has earned less than $90,000 in purses. Want a bigger truck? But if you throw out the grass experiment two races ago, this one has run two nice 2nds in the last 3 outs. Those were against much tougher, too. Gets the meet’s winningest rider up. Love the work on Oct. 9 at CD. This is the one for me. My first Key Play of the Day comes right here. I bet the 7 to win/place/show and then box the 7-3 in one exacta. I will key the 7-3 over/under the rest of the numbers listed in two smaller units.
8th: 2-5/4-3-1…G3 Dowager Stakes…Let’s be brutally honest. If this is a Graded Stakes event, then, well, I’m a jet plane. In other words? It ain’t. But it’s a race and it’s got a couple of decent runners in here. I will give the edge to Blame Debbie (2), who will be stepping up to face Graded Stakes company for the first time since she was a tiring 6th in the G2 Lake Placid at Saratoga on July 19. She blitzed on the front end that day and ran out of gas. The barn switched plans and running styles after that one. And, she got the blinkers for the first time, too. Since that equipment addition, the daughter of Blame has won two in a row from coming off the pace and stretching out. Big shot in this lack-luster group. Siberian Iris (5) has only mustered a second and a third in 5 starts this year. All of those were on the Left Coast. But? In this group, this long-distance traveller has a shot. In 23 career starts on the grass. Only 3 wins. Does have 7 seconds and 3 thirds. So? I play under. I bet the 2 to win/place/show and then box the top two in the exacta. I will key the 2 over/under the “all button” in two more units.
9th: 2-5-7/8/6-3-4-1…Sure wish I had a 2YO colt ready to run. Would fit nicely in this $70,000 MSW event to be contested at 7 furlongs. Not much to get excited about here. Not, at the least, going into it. I will fall back and go with Blushinstreetdevil (2). I have no idea who the trainer is, but I do know that he has not won a race in 4 starts this year. And, I do know that he did run a solid 3rd at KY Downs on Sept. 16. Now, this one must convert to the dirt and the rider has won with a rather modest .08% in 278 races this year. And, that’s the best? Well, best guess. Thrown for a Loupe (5) didn’t run much over there turf at CD last time out, but gets back to the dirt here. Barn wins with .11% when going from a sprint, to a route, and back to a sprint. Work on Oct. 10 was spot on. Like this rider. Searching for anything here. Southern Passage (7) was nipped by a nose last time out. Wow. Yeah, but that was against $50,000 claimers. Now, must move back to face MSW level. Barn is 0-for-7 when trying that this year. Works are good of late. That’s something to go on, I guess. Sound the Charge (8) is a first time starter, who has been working very well for this first race. Might as well. We don’t know how good — or bad — this one is, as of yet. I bet the 5-8 — take note — across the board and then box the 5-7-8 in the exacta. I will key the 5-7-8 over/under the 2 in two smaller units. Coin toss.
Good Luck & All the Best / Gene