By Ryan Dickey:

For the many “weekend warriors” out there in horse racing handicapping land, today could be their first crack at the 2019 Saratoga meet. For us diehards, it’s day three, but weather-wise all reports point to today being a wonderful day, so if you find yourself in upstate New York, feel free to make the trek to the Spaaaaaaaa….

My Saratoga spot plays got off to a rough start on opening day, but after one of my three picks was scratched yesterday, I brought home 50% winners as Big Muddy got the job done in race 4 on Friday, paying $7.40/$4.40/$3.50 across the board.

Today I have three more plays and hope all three actually get to the gate.

RACE 1 — In the opener today, it looks on paper to be a two-horse race, with both #9 WARM and #10 SHE’S NOT BLUFFING the 3-1 and 5/2 morning line favorites, respectively, being the ones to beat. Like many people, I dabble in multi-race bets, and one of my favorite ploys is to single the first leg of a pick-5, so that if I’m right with my single, I have no need to play the pick-4 in the next race. If my pick fails to win, I can always play the same remaining sequence in the pick-4 the following race.

While not discounting #5 WIN THE SHAKE in this race (I’ll use her in exotics, but not on top), I’m tasking myself to pick a winner between the #9 and the #10. Conventional wisdom may dictate choosing the horse dropping in class vs the one moving up in class, but I’ve never been good at being conventional. I’m going with She’s Not Bluffing on the far outside, even though outside posts at the seven furlong configuration at Saratoga have a disadvantage.

She’s Not Bluffing won last out in a six furlong maiden claiming affair at Belmont on June 9th. She broke her maiden on her fifth try, and won as the race favorite by 5-¼ lengths. While I am aware that the toughest leap for racehorses is going from being a maiden to facing winners for the first time, I like this Verrazano filly’s form cycle a little better than Warm’s.

Warm finished seventh, beaten by 13¼ lengths in her last start, 70 days ago on the turf at Monmouth. Her trainer sports an 0-for-41 win record moving horses from the turf to the dirt. She also projects to be placed more towards the rear of the pack in a race that doesn’t look to have much early speed. 

While the “safe” play in the early pick-5 is to play both the #9 and the #10 (and even safer to throw in the #5), I’m going to single She’s Not Bluffing in the first.

RACE 9 — The Grade 1 Diana is a six horse affair, and four of them are saddled by the same trainer. I mean, he’s probably not going to physically saddle each one, he’ll probably get some help, but that’s beside the point. There has been a lot of grumbling about a short field Grade 1 with four Chad Brown horses running, but the quality of these six in the race makes for an exciting race.

While most eyes will be on champion #2 RUSHING FALL and multiple Grade 1 stakes winner #4 SISTERCHARLIE, I’m going to have my money on #6 HOMERIQUE.

At 5/2 on the morning line, Homerique is the THIRD-choice. I expect her to be at least 3-1 when the gates open. This is, admittedly, more of a “feel” play than one based on solid statistical data, but my guess is that Homerique will be the one chugging the hardest to the wire in the late stages of the race. She won a Grade 2 race last time out going ten furlongs, so the distance here isn’t the question. The question is whether she’ll be close enough to Rushing Fall and Sistercharlie to use that late kick to her advantage. I think she will.

RACE 11 — My faithful readers get bookend race picks from me today as I have an opinion on the first and last races of the card.

Like the first race, I think the finale is possibly up for grabs between two contenders–#7 PROGNOSTICATION and #11 BATTLE OF BLENHEIM. While most of the money will go towards the Chad Brown gelding Prognostication, I’m backing the Todd Pletcher War Front gelding Battle of Blenheim.

While Prognostication is coming in to the race second off a long layoff, it’s fair to note that he has only run sparingly for his career. At six years old, he has but 11 starts under his belt, never running more than four times in any year. Battle of Blenheim (who was once trained by Brown) is making his fourth start since February, having raced in February, March, and June of this year. 

Battle of Blenheim compares favorably to Prognostication and will be at much better odds when the gates open. Other horses in this race to use are #9 SYCAMORE LANE, #8 PATRIOT DRIVE, and #2 SHALAKO.

I suggest playing Battle of Blenheim to win, and a $1 Trifecta 7,11 with 7,8,9,11 with 2,7,8,9,11 which would cost $18.

Best of luck!