Ryan Dickey’s Selections for Keeneland on Sunday, April 14

I have to admit that I was a little lazy last night and after getting home late from another great day at Keeneland, the last thing I wanted to do was handicap a Sunday card that I knew would be hampered by rain. But this morning I awoke with a new vigor to trudge through the past performances and try to find a potential longshot today.

And Keeneland has already announced that all five of the turf races slated for today have come off the grass, so there will be nine races run on the sloppy main track. It rained a decent amount last night and there’s more rain on the way. Could be a tough day at Keeneland if there is such a thing–I wouldn’t know — never had one.

I won’t have the luxury of checking for scratches before submitting this piece to be sent to the masses, and I have no intention of taking guesses as to which horses will run and which horses will not, so I’ll simply share my findings going through the past performances and list a FEW possible horses to possibly wager on today for the wet Keeneland card.

There will be NO “BAIL-OUT SPECIAL” today, even though I’ll give suggestions for the finale (race 9). Without knowing which horses are running, there’s no way to predict a pace scenario, and I’m “pretty sure” the horse I liked could very well be scratched, so no one gets my second or third choice to “bail them out.”

Without further ado, here’s my notes for Keeneland today, followed by a couple suggested plays. It’s the best I can do this morning:

RACEPOSTHORSENOTE
11Maid in the MistRan second in off-turf route at KEE last Oct.
1 mile TURF3Lady Trish’s Dream5th, 34 lengths back off-turf at KEE last Oct.
OFF THE TURF6ArtisticTwo races on dirt resulted in losses by most lengths,
7Becky’s BluegrassLost by 20 lengths in 5.5f sprint off-turf last out.
9Awesome OneRan second in off-turf sprint at FG in Feb.
10Scat Maggie15-3/4 lengths back in off-turf at CD last Nov.
12Norma’s JoyThird in debut off-turf at WO last Nov.
21KitchiWon only career start on sloppy track.
1-1/16 mile dirt2Bemma’s BoyFinished far back in all three wet dirt races.
3Bold ProphetAll 15 dirt races on fast track.
4Stuart HallWon only career start on sloppy track.
5PortalAll 11 dirt races on fast track.
6DreamzapperAll 5 dirt races on fast track, raced 9 days ago.
31Can’thelpbelievingNever raced on dirt (29 starts) bad on soft/yielding turf.
1-1/8 miles TURF2OlympicoNever raced on dirt (19 starts), has won, placed on soft turf.
OFF THE TURF3ProfiteerLost by 21-1/4 lengths in only off-turf race, hits board on soft turf.
4Revved UpLost by 21-1/4 lengths in only off-turf race, hits board on soft turf.
5Murad KhanNever raced on dirt (16 starts), won on soft turf.
6Monarchs GlenNever raced on dirt (11 starts), won on soft turf.
7Sir Dudley DiggsFinished third in only off-turf race, hits board on soft/yielding turf.
8Dot MatrixNever hit board in 3 dirt starts, has won of soft turf.
9Cowboy CultureNever raced on dirt (16 starts), won/placed on soft/yielding turf.
10 MTOReride2-0-1-0 on off-dirt track, placed in off-turf race at KEE last Oct.
11 MTOHeavy Roller5-2-0-0 on off-dirt track, won in slop at OP two starts back.
43Jumpin Thorugh HoopsLost by 14 lengths on “good” SA dirt track in Jan.
6 furlongs dirt5ExchequerLost by 17-3/4 lengths on “good” SAR dirt track last Aug.
6TringaleLost by 6-1/2 lengths on “good” FG dirt track last Dec.
7Master Distiller2-0-2-0 on sloppy or muddy dirt tracks.
51Kitten’s FinestNever raced on dirt (3 starts), both turf tarts on firm turf.
1 mile TURF2Michelles FaultLost by 13 lengths on sloppy dirt, by 13-3/4 lengths on yielding turf.
OFF THE TURF3Scary AnimalLost by 9 lengths on “good” dirt, by 10-1/4 lengths on good turf.
4She’s ProudOnly career start on firm turf.
5Princess BlancaFinished third in only off-the-turf dirt race on “good” dirt last Aug.
11Miss Leah AngelPlaced on good turf at FG this Feb.
12Strikingly LovelyOnly career start on firm turf.
13 AEWoodfinAll 4 career starts on firm turf.
15 AEEncataAll 3 turf starts on firm turf, never ran on wet dirt.
16 AEMalibu PartyAll 3 career turf starts on firm, 1-0-1-0 on sloppy dirt.
63Bird DogSixth, 19-1/4 back on sloppy GP track in Jan only wet dirt start.
1-1/16 miles dirt4Saintly SamuraiSixth, 64-3/4 lengths back on sloppy LRL track last July only wet dirt start.
5Gentle Warrior2-0-0-0 on wet dirt, finishing far back both tries on wet dirt.
6Bumperdoo3-0-0-1 on wet dirt, third on sloppy AQU track in Jan.
9Ocean Monarch2-0-1-0 on wet dirt, second on sloppy TAM track two back in Jan.
71C C RiderNever run on wet dirt, always on firm turf in 7 career starts.
1-1/16 miles TURF2Vegas KittenWon on soft KEE turf at this distance last Apr., never raced on dirt.
OFF THE TURF3Sekondi25 career starts, seventh, 22-1/2 lengths back last out on sloppy KEE track.
5Face of VictoryTwo of 15 career starts on turf (both firm), 2-0-1-0 on wet dirt.
6FaratNinth, 20-1/4 lengths back in only off-turf race on sloppy FG track last Dec.
8Fred’stwirlingcandyEighth, 8 lengths back on sloppy KEE track only wet dirt race Oct. 2017.
9Battle of MemphisAll three career starts on firm turf.
10Family TreeAll six career starts on turf, won on heavy turf in Ireland once.
11 MTORubus3-0-1-0 on wet tracks, placed at FG on sloppy track in Feb.
12 MTOMarzo4-0-2-0 on wet tracks, placed on muddy OP track two back
81Shezappealing2-0-0-1 on wet track
1-1/16 miles dirt2Support3-1-2-0 on wet track, placed last out on muddy FG track.
3FoxtailWon last out on “good” SA track in Feb. in only wet dirt start.
4SaracosaAll 7 career starts on fast dirt track.
5Aife1-0-1-0 on wet dirt, third three back on sloppy FG track last Dec.
6Let’s Roll1-0-0-0 on wet dirt.
7End of NowWon on wet sealed track at SA last Mar.
91Combustible1-0-1-0 on wet dirt, placed twice on turf listed as “good”.
1-1/16 miles TURF2Voting ControlAll 3 career starts on firm turf.
OFF THE TURF3One Last StrikeAll 5 career starts on firm turf.
4Fashion DecreeWon on debut in only career start on “good” TAM turf in Feb.
5Personal TimePlaced in only wet dirt start on sloppy AQU track last Nov., won on firm turf.
6Im a PatriotAll 5 career starts on turf, seventh, 7-3/4 lengths back on “good” KD turf last Sept.
7Factor This2-1-0-0 on wet dirt, has won, showed on turf listed as good.
8Create AgainWon only career start on wet dirt on sloppy CD track last Nov., hits board on yielding turf.
9Daddy’s CozyWon on “good” PIM turf last May in only non-firm turf start, well-beaten only time on dirt.
10EcruNever run on wet dirt, placed in only try on turf not listed as firm.
11St. DenmanNever run on wet dirt, won at KD in only try on turf not listed as firm.
12 MTOWatch Me Whip1-0-0-0 on wet dirt,.

Race 1: #12 Norma’s Joy, #9 Awesome One if one or both stay in.

Race 2: #1 Kitchi has speed, won in slop.

Race 3: #11 Heavy Roller should get the job done–serious win contender if he runs.

Race 4: #7 Master Distiller a win contender will be at short odds.

Race 5: #15 Encanta looks tough here, also will be short odds

Race 6: #1 Lontani will be forwardly placed, intriguing.

Race 7: Look to the MTO’s #11 Rubus and #12 Marzo

Race 8: #2 Support will be at low odds, but try #7 End of Now to spring the upset.

Race 9: #7 Factor This (5-1) is NOT the “Bail-out Special” but worth a look if he runs.

HAVE FUN, STAY DRY, AND BEST OF LUCK!

The horse broke well today,” Gaffalione said. “I had the horse inside, Dunph, going to the lead and then (Gun It) showed a little bit of speed. When I saw they were intent on going I just tried to get him back and got him to relax. He came back to me nicely and settled well down the backside. Got a little keen going into the far turn and wanted to move a little early. But I didn’t want to take too much away from him so I tried to sit as long as I could. He was waiting on horses down the lane but I kept him at task and there was plenty of horse there.”

“Mark (Casse, the trainer) and his team have done a great job,” Gaffalione said. “They’ve had a ton of confidence in this horse the whole way. It’s just an honor to be able to ride the horse. He’s just so professional, trains great and he’s a pleasure to be around.”

Tyler Gaffalione, Rode of War of Will to victory in the G2 Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds
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    Ryan Dickey

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